CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/01/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064887
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: January 11, 1953

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11 January 1953
Copy NO. 58
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Additional Chinese Communist army reported in Korea (page 3).
2. Possibility of Japanese Liberal Party realignment, seen (page 3).
3. Expansion of arsenals in Communist China reported (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Mossadeq makes another indirect plea for US assistance in the
oil dispute (page 4).
5.
6.
British Ambassador instructed to protest Egyptian anti-British
statements (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Tito denies possibility of Yugoslav neutralism (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East German First Air Division reportedly to be equipped with
jets (page 7).
9.
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FAR EAST
1. Additional Chinese Communist army reported in Korea:
Chinese Communist units not previously
identified in Korea, the 23rd Army and
the 73rd Division.
Comment: This latest identification
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strengthens previous indications
Ludt an aacutionai untnese army group of about 100,000 men has
arrived in Korea from the Third Field Army in East China.
2. Possibility of Japanese Liberal Party realignment seen:
Ambassador Murphy believes that the
renewed struggle between the Yoshida
and Hatoyama groups within the Liberal
Party amounts to a search for fresh
leadership which may produce an entirely new balance of forces
and cause the long-standing Yoshida-Hatoyama feud to lose its
significance.
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Murphy predicts a new three-way struggle
among the pro-Yoshida group headed by Deputy Premier Ogata, a
well-financed faction under Bukichi Miki which cuts across factional
lines and enjoys strong rural support, and a neutral group advocating
unity behind some non-partisan, supra-party figure.
Comment: While neither Ogata nor the
neutral Liberal group is now believed to have sufficient strength
to secure party control, a coalition of various conservative groups
under Miki, which has been suggested by the press several times
since November, would be a strong contender for control of the
Liberal Party. The proximity of the party convention in late January
has intensified the intra-party struggle for power.
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3. Expansion of arsenals in Communist China reported:
that during 1952 the number
of arsenals in Communist China increased
from 155 to 187, repair shops from 8 to 13,
and exIblosives plants from none to five. This munitions industry
employs an estimated 400,000 Chinese; 5,400 Russians and Japanese;
and 600 Germans, Czechs, Poles and Koreans.
Comment: In terms of its labor force, now
50 percent higher than the estimate of early 1952, the
munitions industry is one of the largest in Communist China. The
expansion of the industry is probably an attempt to make China self-
sufficient in small arms, light artillery and ammunition.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Mossadeq makes another indirect plea for US assistance in the oil
dispute:
Prime Minister Mossadeq informed Ambas-
sador Henderson on 8 January that he is
now compelled to fight the Communists,
British agents, and opportunistic elements
of the National Front. All three groups, Mossadeq complained,
wished to eject the Americans from Iran. He claimed that he, him-
self, however, was anxious for the Americans to stay. He hoped
that if the present oil negotiations failed, as he now feared they
would, the United States would demonstrate its fairmindedness and
friendship by buying Iranian oil.
Comment: Mossadeq's new attempt to
extract American aid by emphasizing the Communist threat, to-
gether with his new plea for American purchase of Iranian oil,
suggests that he still hopes to obtain American assistance in set-
tling the dispute on his own terms.
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6. British Ambassador instructed to protest Egyptian anti-British
statements:
The Counselor of the British Embassy in
Cairo told Ambassador Caffery that
instructions have been received to protest
strongly against the anti-British state-
ments Colonel asr, an influential member of the Egyptian
military regime.
The Counselor stated that the Egyptians
are pursuing a very dangerous line. He warned that the resumption
of guerrilla activities in the Canal zone, as threatened by Nasr,
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would precipitate the reoccupation of Egypt by Britain. Since the
Egyptians will no longer listen to the British, he added, "somebody"
should make the Cairo regime understand the facts of the present
situation.
Ambassador Caffery comments that a
"point of no return" is fast being reached. He fears that until the
West gives Egypt "something more than sweet words," he will be
unable to induce the Egyptians to avoid irresponsible actions.
Comment: There is no indication that
Egypt's military leaders, despite their criticism of Britain, are
prepared to let guerrilla activity break out at the present time in
the Canal zone and thus bring countermeasures by British forces
in the area.
Substantial progress, already made in
reducing Anglo-Egyptian differences, may be lost, however, if
both sides refuse to consider further concessions.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Tito denies possibility of Yugoslav neutralism:
Marshal Tito denied to Ambassador
Allen that his speech on 16 December
implied a threat to return to neutralism
or was directed against the policies
of the United States. He stated emphatically that any form of
neutralism was a practical and moral impossibility for Yugo-
slavia, and repeated earnestly that under no circumstances
would he return to the Cominform.
It had been necessary for internal reasons,
Tito said, to strike out hard against Italian attempts to make
continued Western aid to Yugoslavia contingent upon political
concessions. He explained, therefore, that the warning in his
speech of "another outcome" was merely an attempt to prepare
the people for a series of economy moves which would have
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been necessary to alleviate the effects of the drought had no
additional foreign aid been granted.
Comment:
rather than disavowing collaboration with the West, Marshal
Tito is pressing for specific political and military commitments
with the United States, Greece and Turkey.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East German First Air Division reportedly to be equipped with
jets:
The East German First Air Division is
reportedly to be equipped with MIG-15
jet fighters. Flight personnel of all
three regiments of the division report-
e � y starte � light training with conventional aircraft at Cottbus,
Bautzen and Kamenz airfields on 1 October.
Allied observers in Germany believe
that an entire Soviet jet regiment with ground support units has
been utilized for the training program in order to attain operational
status within the shortest possible time.
Comment: The shipment of jet aircraft
to Kamenz has been previously reported.
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