CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/01/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064890
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: January 15, 1953

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SECURI FORMATION
15 January 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
L Greek-Italian talks on Balkan defense inconclusive (page 3)
2. Yugoslav-Turkish defense accord awaits political agree-
ment (page 3).
3,
SOVIET UNION
4.
FAR EAST
5.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French reportedly plan offensive in Vietnam (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Ruling clique expected to win election in Iraq (page 6).
8. Egypt disappointed by British proposals for the Sudan \page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Scandinavian diplomats anticipate easier trade negotiations
with Poland (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
11. Paris Embassy sees brighter EDC picture (page 8).
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'1P SE�RET
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GENERAL
1. Greek-Italian talks on Balkan defense inconclusive:
Greek Prime Minister Papagos told Italian
Prime Minister De Gasperi during the latter's
visit to Athens that he would be glad to help
resolve Italian-Yugoslav differences, although
Greece was too small a power to attempt to mediate. Papagos, who
informed American Ambassador Peurifoy of the statement, added that
he had told De Gasperi that military coordination with Yugoslavia was
essential to NATO defense planning. De Gasperi admitted this, but
declared that no Italian-Yugoslav agreement was possible until the
Trieste problem was solved.
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De Gasperi added that Italy had renounced all
ambitions in Albania, and Papagos reassured him that Greece wOuld
pursue its claims to northern Epirus only through diplomatic means.
2. Yugoslav-Turkish defense accord awaits political agreement:
Yugoslavia and Turkey agreed during their
recent military talks in Belgrade that after
the necessary political agreements have been
made, a joint defense plan would be under-
taken, according to a Turkish Foreign Office official. These talks
also produced a plan for an immediate exchange of military students
and certain military information, and for observing each other's
maneuvers.
Comment: Yugoslavia desires a tripartite
mutual assistance agreement with Greece and Turkey. Both Turkey
and Greece have asked for guidance on what further steps can be taken
toward military collaboration with Yugoslavia, since they are un-
willing to make any military arrangements which conflict with their
NATO obligations.
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SOVIET UNION
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5.
FAR EAST
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French reportedly plan offensive in Vietnam:
The French are planning a landing operation 3.3(h)(2)
in the Thanh Hoa area of northern Annam
between 15 and 20 January,
The
attack will be a raid in force by at least three battalions rather than
an attempt to occupy the area. Objectives are Viet Minh rice and
arms stocks in the area.
Comment: The Thanh Hoa area has been
held by the Viet Minh since 1945. A successful French raid, fol-
lowing the Viet Minh's failure to take Na San and its more recent
� abandonment of objectives in Laos, could have a considerable psycho-
logical and military effect.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Ruling clique expected to win election in Iraq:
Ambassador Berry in Baghdad reports
that candidates favored by the Iraqi Regent
and Nun i Said are expected to win approx-
imately 123 of the 141 parliamentary seats
in the elections on 17 January. Three of the four opposition parties,
including the important Umma Party of Saleh Jabr, have virtually
boycotted the elections in protest against the government's manip-
ulation of the electoral machinery.
Comment: A Regent-Nun i victory promises
no basic reforms. The tensions which preceded the Baghdad riots
of 22 November may thus be expected to continue.
8. Egypt disappointed by British proposals for the Sudan:
General Nagib has told Ambassador Caffery 3.3(h)(2)
in Cairo that the latest British proposals for
the future of the Sudan represent a "retro-
gression."
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Comment: Current reports reflect a growing
anti-British feeling in Egy�pra�am official encouragement of extreme
nationalism. British military authorities reportedly fear that the
anniversary of the 26 January riots may be the occasion for renewed
violence.
Prospects for an early solution of the Sudan
issue appear slight since sentiment in both Britain and in Egypt seems
opposed to further concessions.
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EASTERN EUROPE
10. Scandinavian diplomats anticipate easier trade negotiations with
Poland:
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Chiefs of the Swedish, Finnish and Danish 3.3(h)(2)
missions in Warsaw consider that Poland is
finding payment for badly needed imports
increasingly difficult because of the strained
domestic economic situation and the lowering of coal prices in the
West. The heads of the Danish and Swedish missions do not anticipate
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that their countries will have to make important concessions to
Poland in trade negotiations scheduled to begin soon in Warsaw,
despite their need for Polish exports.
WESTERN EUROPE
11. Paris Embassy sees brighter EDC picture:
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The possibility of French ratification 3.3(h)(2)
of the EDC treaty has greatly improved
since Mayer's investiture� in the opinion'
of the American Embassy in Paris, which
is confident that Mayer will push the EDC more vigorously than did
Pinay.
The Embassy points out that Mayer has
pledged early study of the treaty by the National Assembly com-
mittees, and has suggested that any modification be in the form of
protocols. This would offer a face-saving device for erstwhile
opponents.
Comment: "Unofficial" press releases,
allegedly originating in French MKT� representative Alphand's
office, indicate that basic French policy on the organization of the
EDC remains unchanged, and that protocols can be negotiated with-
out reopening the treaty.
Mayer expects to negotiate protocols pro-
viding for a formal British tie with the EDC, the right of rapid
withdrawal of French forces for overseas emergencies, and identi-
fication of all French forces in the EDC and elsewhere as elements
of a single French army.
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