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January 7, 1958
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15772379].pdf438.91 KB
V ,Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 / Or ot CURRENT / INTELLIGENCE / BULLETIN r. 7 January 1958 Copy No. 143 t TO: T �;; :LW OATE: AUTh. I$'02 REVIEWER: OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET /71/ zff% Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 eNIT Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 CONTENTS 1. USSR ANNOUNCES FURTHER REDUCTION OF FORCES (page 3)., 2. USSR REOPENS POSSIBILITY OF ASWAN DAM AID OFFER (page 4). 3. TOP-LEVEL EAST GERMAN LEADERS OPPOSE ULBRICHT (page 5). 4. INDONESIA SEEKING LARGE QUANTITIES OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN EASTERN EUROPE (page 6). 5. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS MEET IN CENTRAL SUMATRA (page 7). 6. EGYPTIAN-DIRECTED VIOLENCE AGAINST JORDAN MAY BE RESUMED (page 8). 7. GREEK PREMIER NOW CONVINCED OF NEED FOR AGREE- MENT WITH TURKEY OVER CYPRUS (page 9). 8. WEST EUROPEAN REACTIONS TO RAPACKI PLAN (page 10). 9, BRITISH APPROACHES ON GERMAN SUPPORT COST PAY- MENTS (page 11). 10. VENEZUELAN SITUATION 7 Jan 58 (page 12). Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 TOP srr.nnT Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 vasV 1. USSR ANNOUNCES FURTHER REDUCTION OF FORCES Comment on: The Soviet Union announced on 6 Jan- uary that its armed forces will be further reduced by 300,000 men, with 41,000 to be withdrawn from East Ger- many and 17,000 from Hungary. By announcing a unilateral cut, Moscow hopes to contrast its "peaceful outlook" with efforts to strengthen the Western military posture, and thus foster the impression�particularly in Western Europe-- that steps to enhance NATO's military potential are unneces- sary. Since May 1955, the Soviet Union has an- nounced it would cut military manpower by about 1.8 million men. While these cuts were not confirmed, there were indi- cations that some reduction of force was completed. Current Soviet strength, including security forces, is estimated about 4.6 million. Khrushchev has said that the USSR's scientific advances have created conditions favorable for the cuts. A Supreme Soviet decree on 21 December, moreover, explicitly called for maintaining the armed forces at a proper level to ensure the defense interests of the Soviet Union. Since Soviet military expenditures for 1958 are estimated at roughly the same level as for the previous three years, a re- duction of forces would indicate increased emphasis on other phases of the military program. The reductions to be made in East Germany and Hungary would not affect Soviet security interests in those countries. Presently the USSR has 380,000 personnel in East Germany and about 70,000 in Hungary. Reductions there, how- ever may be particularly effective for propaganda purposes. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 crrorT Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Nor 2. USSR REOPENS POSSIBILITY OF ASWAN DAM AID OFFER Comment on: Moscow is endeavoring to keep alive Egyptian hopes for Soviet economic assistance on the Aswan high dam. This may be a bargaining tactic for the impending negotiations to implement the 19 November Soviet-Egyptian credit agreement. Ambassador Thompson suggests it may also be a hint to Nasir that his present flirtation with the West is undesirable and that continued reliance on the Soviet bloc will pay off with even bigger dividends. The Soviet foreign affairs journal New Times on 26 December published an article on the advantages of the Aswan dam project advising that Cairo could rely on "disinterested aid of friendly countries, the Soviet Union among them." The article warned that "aid from Western countries is not to be reckoned on." Over the past year and a half, the USSR , has been reluctant to become involved in Aswan and has min- imized the advantages of the dam, while advising Egypt to concentrate on small-industry development. Soviet economic assistance under the 19 November credit agreement will be devoted primarily to shorter range projects which will pro- duce more immediate political impact. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 srcnrr Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Rele-a-se--: 20T9/08/20 CO2066864 3. TOP-LEVEL EAST GERMAN LEADERS OPPOSE ULBRICHT Comment on: Top-level East German Communist leaders are banding together for a showdown with First Secretary Ul- bricht at the Socialist Unity party's (SED) 35th central committee plenum this month in an at- tempt to force him to modify certain of his hard policies. the opposition in- cludes five of the nine politburo members, deputy pre- mier, and the former security chief, most of whom are also fundamentally hard-line Communists. Most of them tried last year to divert Ulbricht from what they considered his unrealistic economic policies of concentrating on basic industries at the expense of consumer goods production and exporting to the Soviet Union to the detriment of profitable trade elsewhere. the consolida- tion of opposition to uibricnt was precipitated by Party Secre- tary Ziller's suicide in mid-December, after an argument with Ulbricht over consumer goods failures. The opposition may also be trying to forestall appointment of more of Ul- bricht's supporters to the secretariat. Ulbricht may be forced to make some concessions, but the Soviet Union probably will support him to ensure his continued dominant position. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 srcarT Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved forke-les;:21F9/08/20 CO2066864 viesoi 4. INDONESIA SEEKING LARGE QUANTITIES OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN EASTERN EUROPE Comment on: The Indonesian arms purchasing mission now in Eastern Europe is interested in ob- taining large quantities of equipment for all three services from Yugoslavia, Czech- oslovakia and Poland The air force wants 114 Soviet aircraft, in- cluding MIG fighters, IL-14 and 1L-28 bombers and transports, and helicopters and trainers. The army is seeking heavy infantry weapons and light artillery, and the navy wants a destroyer, a submarine, frigates, and a variety of small vessels. The Indonesians also want am- munition and spare parts, with delivery to begin 90 days after purchase. A shipment of Soviet Jeeps, contracted for approximately a year ago, arrived in Indonesia on 4 January, bringing to about 1,700 the number of Soviet jeeps delivered out of 4,000 purchased. Foreign Minister Subandrio has publicly re- iterated that Indonesia does not intend to purchase Soviet arms if there is an "alternative source," and the purchasing mission is scheduled to visit a few Western countries. All indications, how- ever, are that the Indonesians anticipate making most of their purchases in the bloc and in Yugoslavia. While the Indonesians need replacements, the type of equipment sought would contribute to a capability for an attack on West Irian. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 SFCRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 � Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 leino" *19 5. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS MEET IN CENTRAL SUMATRA Comment on: Indonesia's dissident leaders have met in Padang, Central Sumatra, to discuss the policy they will follow during President Sukarno's trip abroad, which began on 6 January. Sumatra does not want to break completely with Djakarta but "will not tolerate additional Com- munist moves" during Sukarno's absence. Sumatran leaders may be contemplating the application of additional economic pressures on Djakarta. Such measures probably would involve foreign companies, in- cluding oil firms, which have continued to pay taxes to and share profits with the central government. Sumatran leaders may be- lieve that in view of the anti-Dutch campaign in Java, they can persuade these companies to divert funds and services to pro- vincial governments. "additional Communist moves" which could prompt new Sumatran counter- measures. The Communists are unlikely to make 77 drastic move during Sukarno's absence. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletih Page 7 �S-EC�RE1 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 *IWO EGYPTIAN-DIRECTED VIOLENCE AGAINST JORDAN MAY BE RESUMED Comment on: Recent Egyptian interest in assembling a large quantity of arms and explosives in Damascus suggests that a new cam- paign of violence may be planned against the pro-Western government of Jor- dan, requestea that Cairo furnish "urgently as large a quantity as possible of revolvers, sub- machine guns, hand grenades, and time fuses." Last fall delivery of time fuses was followed by an outbreak of nuisance bombing in both Jordan and Lebanon. Although the overt propaganda war be- tween Amman and Cairo has subsided, Jordan's King Hussayn has again challenged Nasir by a well-publicized grant of asylum to an anti-Nasir Egyptian Air Force officer. Hussayn is also re- ported in contact with members of the anti-Nasir "free Egypt" group, several of whom he invited to Amman last month in the hope of arranging a meeting with King Saud. In view of these developments, Nasir may soon carry the struggle into Jordan, possibly at the time of new parliamentary by-elections scheduled for 20 January to replace anti-Western deputies who fled to Syria last April. According to other reports, an Egyptian-Syrian commando group has been established in southern Syria to train individuals for sabotage in Jordan and the Persian Gulf area, and to plan for sabotage in Jordan of the American-owned Trans-Arabian Pipeline, which carries Saudi oil to the Mediterranean. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 %NW 7. GREEK PREMIER NOW CONVINCED OF NEED FOR AGREEMENT wrni TURKEY OVER CYPRUS Comment on: Prime Minister Karamanlis returned from the NATO conference in Paris con- vinced that an understanding with Turkey is a prerequisite to any solution of the Cyprus problem but dispirited by the apparent hopelessness of overcoming Turkish resistance. Karamanlis now sees Turk- ish hostility as "genuine, emotional and widespread" and im- possible of mollification by outside pressure. Consequently, he no longer believes that appeals to the United Nations, diplo- matic pressure on London, or merely waiting for the Labor party to assume power in Britain will result in a settlement of the issue. Greek leaders had long tended to disre- gard official Turkish statements on Cyprus, believing them to be either British-inspired or issued as maneuvers in the in- ternal politics of Turkey. Turkish leaders remain firm in their demands for retaining the status quo on Cyprus or parti- tioning the island. While some Greek and Greek Cypriot lead- ers who demanded immediate pelf-determination now are will- ing to accept self-government with eventual self-determination not precluded, none could retain his political support if he ac- cepted the Turkish position. Karamanlis, however, now seems to realize that an agreement with Ankara is necessary and that attacks on Turkey by Greek and Cypriot leaders and in the Greek press contribute substantially to making such agreement vir- tually impossible. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 .�QrF7C-74R-g-1C� Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for kelea-se: 0-19/08/20 CO2066864 %resi 8. WEST EUROPEAN REACTIONS TO RAPACK1 PLAN Comment on: Preliminary official reactions from France, Belgium, and Luxembourg to Polish Foreign Minister Rapacki's plan for an atom-free zone in central Europe tend to emphasize the political and military impracticability of the plan. Most officials believe, however, a reply must not be entirely negative be- cause of public interest in renewed East- West negotiations. Both French Premier Gaillard and For- eign Minister Pineau have publicly taken a negative line on Rapacki's proposals; the French ambassador in Warsaw has been instructed to reject the plan "firmly." The Foreign Min- istry's director of European affairs, Jean Laloy, believes, however, that from the standpoint of French public opinion, the premier's reply was "too abrupt." Laloy had indicated in December that the idea of a "thinned-out zone" in central Eu- rope advocated by French disarmament expert Jules Moch was gaining headway in France as well as in Germany and Britain. He is concerned that Britain may not go along with the negative French response to the Rapacki suggestion. Belgian Foreign Minister Victor Larock, in a public statement on 3 January, characterized the Rapacki proposal as "interesting, but imprecise and too limited." He reiterated Belgium's support of international control and in- spection mechanisms as the proper basis for a disarmament agreement. A spokesman for the Luxembourg Foreign Min- istry has stated that Western Europe could not agree to a 3,000-mile withdrawal of American troops while Soviet troops remained 300 miles away. '7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10 eR Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 *Nei 9. BRITISH APPROACHES ON GERMAN SUPPORT COST PAYMENTS Comment on: Prime Minister Macmillan evidently believes the United States holds the key to Bonn's continued defrayment after March of the Deutsche mark costs of maintaining British troops in Germany. A draft letter to President Eisenhower urges that, if UK-German negotiations are resumed at the request of NATO, the United States tell the Federal Republic that it will not seek further support cost payments for American forces. This would make it easier for the Germans to comply with the British request. A parallel letter is being sent to Chancel- lor Adenauer asking his cooperation toward resolving the dispute. Britain seeks the equivalent of $140,000,000 in support of its forces. So far Bonn has only offered to advance payments on other normal trans- actions, but London has rejected this offer. London is probably hoping that its veiled threat to reduce its forces still further than now planned will induce other European NATO members to press Bonn and Washington to find a compromise. Three Spaak-appointed financial ex- perts will report to the North Atlantic Council on 8 January that Britain's currency difficulties entitle it to request NAC discussion of the problem. London, which asserts it needs to settle the dispute by mid-Jan.uary to meet budget planning needs, expects the NA to urge resumption of British-German negotiations. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page11 SECRET� Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864 yaw' 10. VENEZUELAN SITUATION Comment on: Venezuelan Government reprisals following the abortive 1-2 January military revolt might touch off fur- ther violence. The government's uncertainty over the loyalty of the armed forces is indicated by exten- sive arrests among the military. In the first active civilian opposition to President Perez since the revolt began, a number of news- papers in Caracas have either suspended publication briefly or otherwise defied a. government order to print condemna- tions of the revolt. At least two prominent newspapermen, including the editor of the Catholic church organ, have been arrested. Official measures against the church, already at odds with the government, could draw the hier- archy into open support of the opposition and have a perceptible effect on participation of civilian elements in future opposition. In addition to the Catholic editor, five other priests have been arrested, and , the archbishop primate has been advised to remain in his palace. 7 Jan 58 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 12 srenrr Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 CO2066864