CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 19, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
19 April 1952
Copy No. 52
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Indonesian delegation to Moscow allegedly offers rubber to the
USSR (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Far East Command sees no imminent Communist offensive (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Egypt attempts to purchase ammunition from Argentina (page 4).
4. King reportedly considers dissolving Greek Parliament (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Britain believes four-power talks on German unity may be necessary
(page 5).
6. French-German controversy over Saar worsens (page 5).
7, German Protestant leaders discuss Soviet note (page 6).
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GENERAL
L Indonesian delegation to Moscow allegedly offers rubber to the USSR:
The Economic Secretary of the Singapore
Government states that he has fairly reliable
information that Indonesian representatives
to the Moscow Economic Conference empha-
sized to the Russians that the difficulties of
the Indo� iiiiibber producers result from American "price-depress-
ing tactics." They appealed for Russian help and offered "unlimited
quantities" of Indonesian rubber to the Soviet Union,
Comment: Within the past month the Indo-
nesian Government has conducted conversations with at least three
central European countries for the exchange of raw materials, in-
cluding rubber, for capital goods.
Indonesia is not known heretofore to have
approached the USSR to sell rubber,
FAR EAST
2. Far East Command sees no imminent Communist offensive:
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he Far East Command, in a review of the
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nemy's intentions and capabilities in Korea,
bserves that "there are no indications of
an imminent attack.," The comment con-
t�etponit out that the Communists have made good
use of the relative quiet provided by the cease-fire to reinforce, both
in men and materiel, and to re-deploy and retrain their units.
The enemy, FECOM estimates, is able to
launch a major offensive with little warning. The duration of such an
attack would depend on the Communists' ability to keep their advancing
units supplied.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Egypt attempts to purchase ammunition from Argentina:
Argentine Government to obtain a "firm
I tender" for armor-piercing, incendiary, and
orainary ball ammunition.
the government will authorize Argentine firms to offer Egypt
the type of ammunition desired.
Comment: Since Egypt has been unable to
obtain arms from the United States and Britain as a result of the Anglo-
Egyptian dispute, it has been attempting to obtain them from other
countries. Egypt now has agreements to purchase certain arms from
Spain, Switzerland and Czechoslovakia.
4. King reportedly considers dissolving Greek Parliament:
The King may dissolve parliament next week
and declare new elections, in the opinion of
Deputy Karapiperis of the Greek Rally. The
Deputy visited Papagos on 8 April and found
the latter pleased with a recent audience he had with the King. Papagos
thinks that the King will not take an unfriendly position toward him, as
in the last elections.
Comment: In early March the King reportedly
considered dissolving parliament in view of the illness of Prime Minister
Plastiras. The outgoing government has the right to designate the
system to be used in the following election. It is doubtful, therefore,
that parliament would be dissolved before the current controversy over
the electoral system is settled.
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While it seems certain that the majority system,
which would favor the Greek Rally, will be employed, the Palace and the
Liberals are said to be attempting a gerrymander in order to reduce
Papagos' strength in southern Greece.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Britain believes four-power talks on German unity may be necessary:
Foreign Secretary Eden plans to tell the British
Cabinet that four-power talks on all-German 3.3(h)(2)
elections may be a necessary prelude to French
and German ratification of the European Defense
Commudt�actual agreement. Eden, who sees no need for
a prompt reply to the Soviet note of 9 April, believes that the West should
continue to press for signature of both treaties, meanwhile taking into
account British and Continental opinion toward subsequent ratification.
The American Embassy in London, recalling
Churchill's and Eden's often expressed willingness to negotiate with the
Soviet Union under favorable circumstances, expects that the British
Labor Party's continuing fear of a rearmed Germany will lead it also
to demand further probing of Soviet intentions.
Comment: The West German Government,
especially Chancellor Adenauer, opposes four-power discussions on
unity at this time. France, however, would probably not reject such
talks if Britain insisted.
6. French-German controversy over Saar worsens:
The recent developments in the Saar are forcin,---;.-
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both France and the Federal Republic into
antagonistic positions from which it will be
Increasingly difficult to retreat, according to
merrpesentauv�in Bonn. The French, indignant over German
Government-sponsored propaganda in the Saar, have now angered the
Germans by banning a German magazine which criticized the French
Ambassador to the Saar.
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American officials fear that when the Bundestag
debates the Saar issue on 23 April, dissident elements in the coalition
might, under the goading of the opposition, demand a Saar solution before
the ratification or even signing of the contractual agreement and the
European Defense Community treaty.
One of Adenauer's close advisers, Blankenhorn9
remarks that it is useless now to negotiate with the French for a defini-
tive Saar solution, since Schuman is "discredited in Paris" and could
make no binding commitments.
Comment:
Widespread French feeling that Schuman is too
pro-American almost led to his exclusion from the Pinay Cabinet.
'7. German Protestant leaders discuss Soviet note:
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leaders and
Dr. Gustav Heinemann, President of the Synod
of the all-German Protestant Church, and Pastor Koch of the West Berlin
Evangelical Church, concluded in agreement to rally all possible forces
for a peace treaty.
During the discussion, Heinemann emphasized
that although the Oder-Neisse line is painful to many Germans, it is a
problem subordinate to the maintenance of peace. His attempt to
discuss the Weimar election law was rejected by the East Germans,
and his request for an amnesty of prisoners in East Germany met with
evasion.
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Comment: The East German CDIJ has been
used extensively to recruit support among West Germans for the East
German position on unification. Strong efforts have been made to use
such "neutralists" as Heinemann and Pastor Niemoeller to gather, support.
The tenor of this meeting suggests that Koch and Heinemann will continue
to support the East German ideas on unification.
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