CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692636
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 25, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
25 October 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. French to ignore Soviet demarche for the present (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Chou En-lai suggests meeting with Burmese and Indian leaders
(page 3).
3. Chinese foray into Burma predicted for November (page 4).
4. Chinese Nationalists report successful island operation (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq and Shah estranged over break with Britain (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. West German Ministry wants inter-zonal border police strengthened
(page 6).
7. Pinay reported amenable to additipns to EDC treaty (page 6).
8. Dutch to go ahead with ratification of EDC treaty (page 7).
9. Britain and France agree to approach Yugoslavia now, on military
planning (page 7).
10. Eden "furious" with French in Saar. negotiations (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. French to ignore Soviet demarche for the present:
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The Deputy Director of Political Affairs in 3.3(11)(2)
the French Foreign Ministry has told
American officials in Paris that his govern-
ment "intended to take no notice" of the recent
Vyshinsky demarche to Ambassador Foxe in Moscow. When ZFoxe returns
to his post in late October and calls at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, he
will not refer to the matter, and the official does not believe the Russians
will bring it up.
The Director of Political Affairs has cautioned
that his deputy's statement does not represent a change in French thinking.
France still intends to consider the Soviet offer of bilateral conversa-
tions, but only on the basis of keeping the United States and Great
Britain informed.
Comment: While the latest reports indicate
that the French Government has so far decided to make no early move
to accept the Soviet offer, a new wave of anti-American sentiment
over North Africa or the Saar might alter French policy.
Premier Pinay's initial success in parrying
the criticisms leveled at his foreign policy in the recent party con-
gresses has probably allayed for the moment the temptation of French
officials to use talks with the USSR as a political safety valve.
FAR EAST
2. Chou En-lai suggests meeting with Burmese and Indian leaders:
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A visit by Chou would be interpreted by
Near Eastern and Southeast Asian government leaders as evidence
that India and Burma were turning toward the Orbit and would presumably
lower the resistance of these leaders to Orbit pressures.
3. Chinese foray into Burma predicted for November:
Communist China intends, with Burmese
acquiescence, to eliminate Chinese
Nationalist troops in the Kengtung area of
Burma, perhaps in late November,
In preparation for this move, Communist troops along the Kengtung-
China border have allegedly been increased to approximately 59000.
Comment: The Chinese Communist 14th
Array, believed to total some 35,000 men, is stationed in western
Yunnan. Dispositions near the Kengtung border are not known.
On 2 October Chou En-Lai told the head of
a visiting Burmese mission that China would respect Burma's
integrity and act only against those Nationalists who crossed into
China.
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4. . Chinese Nationalists report successful island operation:
In their capture of Nan jih Island, off the
coast of Fukien, on 13 October, the Chinese
Nationalists collimated 5,000 troops and
n iit1 fntir rhipese Communist battalions,
During the three-day
operation, all the 2,000 Communists on the island were killed or cap-
tured. Over 800 Chinese Communist prisoners are being held for
interrogation and reindoctrination on Formosa.
Comment: This is the largest and most
successful island operation yet reported by the Chinese Nationalists.
They have not previously transported a large group of Chinese Com-
munist prisoners to Formosa.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Mossa.deq and Shah estranged over break with Britain:
Comment: The Shah has been ineffectual
since the July rioting, from which Mossadeq emerged greatly
strengthened, and he has shown no inclination to dispute publicly
the Prime Minister's decisions.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. West German Ministry wants inter-zonal border police strengthened:
The West German Interior Ministry expects 3.3(h)(2)
renewed incidents along the Soviet Zone
border as soon as the Bonn and Paris treaties
are ratified by the Bundestag in November.
For this reason it is asking the Western powers for permission to
equip the Border Police with helicopters, additional armored cars,
and 60-mm mortars. It also intends to ask the I3undestag to double the
strength of the Border Police, which now numbers 10,000.
Comment: Federal Interior Minister Lehr
has made many attempts to double the size of the Border Police, but
he is opposed by the Finance Ministry.
Pinay reported amenable to additions to EDC treaty:
French Premier Pinay reportedly has told 3.3(h)(2)
the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National
Assembly that the government would consider
"certain modifications" in the EDC treaty
should the Assembly suggest them. Pinay gave the impression of
favoring the idea of seeking "additions" to the treaty in the form of
legislative guarantees from the United States and Britain.
A French Foreign Ministry official reports
that Pinay was successful in satisfying the coalition parties and
obtaining a breathing spell before the ratification debate.
Comment: Pinar s reported flexibility
on this issue may foreshadow time-consuming efforts at renegotia-
tion in the form of additional protocols and guarantees that would
require the agreement of all six signatories to EDC.
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8. Dutch to go ahead with ratification of EDC treaty:
An official Dutch spokesman has informed the
American Embassy in The Hague that his 3.3(h)(2)
government's decision to go ahead with
ratification of the EDC treaty has not been
affected by the increasing qualms of the French
toward EDC. He does not, however, think Dutch ratification probable
before the end of December.
9. Britain and France agree to approach Yugoslavia now on military 3.3(h)(2)
planning:
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Comment: France has been cooperating with
the United States and Britain in considering the best means of coor-
dinating Yugoslav and general Western defense planning without
raising the problem of Yugoslavia's relations with NATO.
10. Eden "furious" with French in Saar negotiations:
British Foreign Secretary Eden is "furious
with the French'? regarding the Saar negotia- 3�3(h)(2)
tions. He has instructed the British Ambassa-
dor to tell French Foreign Minister Schuman
that if a date for, the Saar elections is set,
and the negotiations fail as a result, the
responsibility will rest upon French shoulders.
The Saar Landtag will decide on 27 or 28
October when to hold elections. Meanwhile,
Schuman' and Chancellor Adenauer are
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trying to reach agreement on a joint statement which would make
it possible for the Saar elections to be postponed.
Comment: If the Saar Landtag sets an
election date next week, the pro-German parties in the Saar will
not be, allowedjo participate, as their applications for legal status
have not been accepted. The rejection of these parties would
considerably dampen prospects of an agreement on the Saar.
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