CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/01/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02696830
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 11, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 CO2696830
*we TOP SFRET
SECUR INFORMATION\
11 January 1952
Copy No.
47
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CI IANGE IN CLASS,
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T 3 C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTI+vra71-2NIA
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Stalin's message to Japan may be assertion of Soviet interests in
Northeast Asia (page 3).
2. Soviet Mission delivers copy of Stalin's message to Yoshida (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. American Minister in Saigon disturbed by French peace hints (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Egyptian court adviser suggests West present new proposals directly
to King (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Czechoslovakia reportedly will produce MIG-15's in 1952 (page 5
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Russians threaten to tighten interzonal trade controls in Austria (page 6).
7. Comment on the Czech overflight requests (page 7).
8. Dutch support of the European Defense Community seems assured
(page 7).
9. Swiss to approve military materiel orders for US (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
10. New attempt to oust Bolivian junta possible page 9).
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GENERAL
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1. Stalin's message to Japan may be assertion of Soviet interests in Northeast Asia:
Chataigneau, the French Ambassador to Moscow,
commenting on reactions to Stalin's New Year
message to Japan, noted that Communist China
responded more cautiously than the other Sate).�
lites. Chataigneau suggested that this might stem
from Peiping's chagrin at Stalin's expression of sympathy for "occupied"
Japan and his failure to allude to the Chinese people "who suffered under
Japanese occupation and who are now fighting to aid the Koreans in gain-
ing their independence. "
Chataigneau considered the timing of Stalin's
message important as indicating that the USSR, anticipating a Chinese push
into Southeast Asia, felt it necessary to assert the priority of Soviet inter-
ests in Northeast Asia.
Comment: Official Chinese Communist pro-
nouncements have revealed no unusual attitude regarding Stalin's speech.
Peiping propaganda has reflected the international Communist objective
of undermining American interests in Japan and supporting the struggle for
Japan's "independence."
2. Soviet Mission delivers copy of Stalin's message to Yoshida:
A bound copy of the Japanese text of Stalin's
message was delivered to Prime Minister
Yoshida's official residence on New Year's
Day by representatives of the Soviet Mission
in Tokyo, with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister. Re-
portedly he has not officially accepted the document in view �fits contro-
versial nature.
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Comment: The Soviet action in Tokyo suggests
the importance attached by the USSR to Stalin's message. It is possible
that delivery of the message indicates a Soviet desire to enter into a work-
ing relationship, with or without benefit of a peace treaty.
FAR EAST
3. American Minister in Saigon disturbed by French peace hints:
3.5(c)
Minister Heath in Saigon, reporting thatPreLM)(2)
Huu had banned publication of French Foreign
Minister Schuman's reference on 6 January to a
possible armistice in Indochina, observed that
local centers of neutralism and appeasement had reacted quickly through
press articles emphasizing the desirability of peace in the Far East.
Heath feels that statements such as Schuman's
will gravely hinder the psychological mobilization effort in Vietnam. He
also fears tltat India, which immediately cabled the text of Schuman's state-
ment to its Consul General in Saigon, may seize the opportunity to propose
mediation of the Indochina war or to submit the problem to the UN.
Comment: Occasional French hints at a nego-
tiated peace in Indochina, put out over the past year or more, have usually
emanated from the Ministry for Associated States rather than from the
Foreign Office.
In a speech on 9 January Premier Huu appealed
to China to cease its aid to the Viet Minh in order that an international con-
ference could be held to settle the cold war throughout the Far East. It
appears that the Premier believed the Schuman statement more portentous
than earlier ones and was attempting to identify himself early with any
forthcoming peace movement.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Egyptian court adviser suggests West present new proposals directly to
King: 3.3(h)(2)
mg Farouk's chief court adviser believes that
fly new Western proposals on the Suez and Sudan
'ssues should not be presented to the present
aid government. Accordingly, the King's
a viser sugges s a any new offers be submitted to the King, who may then
determine what action to take.
The adviser believes that the present govern-
ment is not sincerely interested in negotiations and must be dismissed
before any solution can be achieved. He also considers it necessary that
literate public opinion support such action, and thinks that the opportune
moment for a change in government has not yet arrived.
Comment: Reports from Cairo generally agree
that the King is biding his time, convinced that for the time being inflamed
public opinion is too strong to counter. A change of cabinets at this time
might result in a more serious internal situation without any possibility that
a negotiated settlement with Britain could be reached.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Czechoslovakia reportedly will produce MIG-15's in 1952:
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All necessary preparations for the production of
MIG-15's by the Czech aviation industry were
completed shortly before the end of 1951 ac-
cording to information received by the US Air
Attache in Prague. Actual assembly of these aircraft reportedly began on
1 January. Maximum production of 20 planes per month is expected to be
reached by 1 April.
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The US Air Attache believes that the Czech
aviation industry is incapable of attaining such a production rate before
September 1952, if by then.
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Comment: It is possible that preparations for
MIG-15 production in Czechoslovakia were completed by the end of 1951.
According to two Czech defectors who were engaged in the preparations 3.3(h)(2)
;37
WESTERN EUROPE
�
. Russians threaten to tighten interzonal trade controls in Austria:
3.3(h)(2)
Soviet officials in Austria recently implied to an
Austrian official that controls over interzonal
trade would be tightened unless the government
committed itself to deliver specific quantities
of aluminum, lead and copper to Soviet enterprises in Austria in 1952. The
Soviet officials hinted that non-compliance would lead to curtailment of
allocations of petroleum products from the Soviet zone and to restrictions on
the movement of such items as scrap metal, machines, electrical equipment
and other items.
Comment: Soviet authorities have frequently
complained of inadequate allocations of raw materials to their enterprises
and have made threats in an effort to enforce their demands. In 1947, they
informed the Austrian Government that a specified list of foods and industrial
products would be permitted to move between zones only if an official permit
were obtained from Soviet authorities, and this pressure technique could be
used again to force concessions from the Austrians. Until now, however,
trade between the Soviet and Western zones has taken place with little
obstruction.
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rIttP-F5ECRET
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7. Comment on the Czech overflight requests:
A Belgian Foreign Office spokesman has
suggested that, before answering the month-old Czech requests for approval
of the proposed Prague-Paris air route by way of Copenhagen, The Hague
and Brussels, the interested governments coordinate their replies through
an international conference to discuss the matter in detail or by an exchange
of notes. Both the United States and Britain have strongly suggested that the
requests for landing rights be denied, because approval would circumvent
existing controls on Czech overflights in Western Europe.
France, which has not yet received a Czech
request, has stated its intention not to grant the landing rights, and the
Netherlands has hinted at similar action. Belgium's position, however, is
unclear beyond its readiness to continue stalling. Denmark feels that it has
no legal grounds on which to refuse the Czech request.
So far, Czechoslovakia has applied pressure
only on Denmark; thus it appears that the Czechs wish to obtain Danish
approval first to use as a bargaining point in discussions with the other
countries.
8. Dutch support of the European Defense Community seems assured:
3 3(h)(2)
Dutch Foreign Minister Stikker has told a US �
official that he feels "reasonably sure" of early
agreement on the European Defense Community
and intimated that his country would modify its
previous position on the unresolved issues to facilitate over-all agreement.
Although concerned that the Community concept as envisaged by France does
not tie into NATO, Stikker seemed reassured when told that the United States
considers the Defense Community a necessary adjunct to NATO and that the
US would oppose any change in what it considered a desirable relationship
between the two organizations.
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Comment: Continued United States and British
support of the European Defense Community will help ensure Dutch par-
ticipation in the army plan. Modification of the formerly adamant Dutch
stand on certain aspects of the Defense Community would probably lead
Belgium and Luxembourg to soften their opposition.
9. Swiss to approve military materiel orders for US:
The Swiss Undersecretary of State is approving 3.3(h)(2)
export licenses for the two million dollars worth
of rockets and other munitions now being manu-
factured in Switzerland for the United States,
and will approve export permits for additional orders of twelve million
dollars now being negotiated. In exchange, he requests that licenses be
granted for $374, 000 worth of items on order from the United States and
urgently needed by the Swiss Army.
The US Minister in Bern strongly urges approval
of this request because of the importan ce to the West of Swiss cooperation
In military matters and in export controls.
Comment: The practically unconditional
approval of large US military orders at this time indicates a considerable
departure from Swiss neutrality, as a result of their extreme anxiety to
obtain US military materiel to fulfill their rearmament program. The
Swiss are also concerned lest military imports from the US may be made
conditional on a satisfactory solution of the problem of liquidating German
assets in Switzerland.
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LATIN AMERICA
10. New attempt to oust Bolivian junta possible:
General Torres, Commanding General of
the Bolivian Army, will, according to a re-
liable source, soon attempt to remove the
military junta because of its "do-nothing"
policy and its refusal to hold elections. Torres and General Seleane,
Minister of Government and member of the junta, are on friendly terms.
Comment: Torres favors the Nationalist
Revolutionary Movement and is known to have opposed the military junta's
assuming power last May. His appointment was in the nature of bribery
to keep him from cooperating with the opposition. General Seleme has
also been maneuvering to oust the junta and may believe that his best chances
are with Torres.
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