CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02698154
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 16, 1952

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SECUWrY INFORMATION
16 February 1952
Copy No. 40
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS, CHANGED TO: 110140
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH. -IR 7O2
DATE
REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Ambassador Muccio reports on Syngman Rhee's senility (page 3).
2, South Africa plans to ground its air squadron in Korea (page 3).
3. New Chinese Communist army may be in Korea (page 4).
4. Soviet Union seeking trade with Burma (page 4).
5. French plan attack on "third force" group in Indochina (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Attempted assassination of Iranian Shah reported (page 6).
7. Iranian Prime Minister considers armed forces unfriendly to his
party (page 6).
8. Egyptian student groups to act against government (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Italy suspends strategic exports to Rumania (page 8).
10. Britain recommends hands-off policy in Saar dispute (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Ambassador Muccio reports on Syngman Rhee's senility:
Emphasizing President Rhee's diminishing
"lucidity," Ambassador Muccio reports that
the President's one-man conduct of govern-
ment is becoming more emotional and ir-
rational. No member of the South Korean Cabinet is willing to stand
up to the President's wrath even when given a "stupid order."
Muccio's anxiety over Rhee's advancing
senility is accentuated by the lack of stature of potential successors,
by his determination to seek re-election in June, and by the strong
probability that he will win.
2. South Africa plans to ground its air squadron in Korea:
3.3(h)(2;
The Union of South Africa has told the United 3.3(h)(2)
States that it will ground its air squadron in
Korea beginning 31 March for three months,
after which it will review its position. The
South African officials explained that failure
to obtain jet aircraft for the squadron necessi-
tates this step, which does not involve re-
patriation of the personnel.
South African Prime Minister Malan, when
reminded by the American Ambassador that such a move might start
a chain reaction among other contributors to UN forces in Korea,
assured him that South Africa does not "want to act in a hurry," but
that the high loss rate and subsequent recruiting difficulties compel
this move.
Malan stated that the decision could be re-
considered if his government had definite assurance of receiving jets
within six months.
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Comment: Last September South Africa
hinted at a possible grounding should it continue to fail to secure jets.
Subsequently the United States informed South Africa that the squadron,
which is using American-owned F-51 Mustangs, would be equipped
with jets at the same time as similar American units.
3. New Chinese Communist army may be in Korea:
The presence in Korea of a new Chinese
Communist army was
'the 10th Army,
previously in southwest China, and its sub-
ordinate 28th. 30th. and 184th Divisions..
Comment: This new identification, in
conjunction with other recent intelligence that the 16th Army is in
the Korea-Manchuria theater, suggests a significant reinforcement
of the Communist forces in North Korea,
4. Soviet Union seeking trade with Burma
The American Embassy in Rangoon reports
that the Soviet delegation to the recently-
concluded ECAFE conference is prolonging
its stay in Burma and is contacting local
firms to promo tidwith the USSR. The supply of illustrated
pamphlets used by the Russians and the arrival of a TASS corre-
spondent just before the conference ended causes the Embassy to
suspect that these Soviet activities were prearranged.
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Comment: While the USSR has made broad
offers of trade to India, Thailand, Ceylon and Indonesia, Burma is
the first country in which it has attempted an overt well-or anize
a roach at economic enetration of South Asia.
Since Burma's imports are strictly controlled
by licensing and almost all established business firms have trading
channels with the West, Soviet success will depend largely upon
collaboration by the Burmese Government.
a
5. French plan attack on "third force" group in Indochina
French troops may shortly launch offensive
operations in Cochinchina against the jungle-
based 7,000-man "army" of the nationalist
leader, Colonel Trinh Minh The. Although
The's force is small, he has achieved a network of tentative alliances
with other political groups which are both anti-Viet Minh and anti-
French.
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The American Legation believes that a French
attack would be risky and "cannot vouch" that it would not provoke a
general uprising of Vietnamese armed groups which have ostensibly
been loyal to Bao Dai, possibly driving some of them into the Viet Minh
camp.
Comment: Colonel The, formerly chief of staff to
the armed forces of the influential Cao Dai politico-religious sect,
renounced any cooperation with the French in mid-I951 and established
"third force" headquarters on the Cochinchina-Cambodia border, His
clandestine radio transmitter has broadcast violent attacks against
both the French "imperialists" and the Viet Minh.
Colonel The's principal propaganda theme,
a demand for complete freedom from all foreign intervention, has
an enormous emotional appeal for the Vietnamese, and he could
probably count on some support from the Cao DO group, Ahose ad-
herents number in the tens of thousands.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Attempted assassination of Iranian Shah reported:
iTwo men tried to assassinate the Shah on the
`hight of 10 February. One of the assassins
was captured in the Shah's living quarters,
but no information has yet been obtained from
him. The Iranian Government is maintaining
close seok47;7-
Comment: The Shah's assassination would
remove the focal point for conservative opposition to the Mossadeq
government. Since the Shah does not have a son and since there is no
designated successor to the Iranian throne, his death would precipitate
a major political crisis.
7. Iranian Prime Minister considers armed forces unfriendly to his party:
Prime Minister Mossadeq considers the
Iranian Army unfriendly to the National
Front and has accused it of interfering in
the elections. He told the American Am-
bassador that he had yet to find one high-
ran mg ranian o leer who had not been or was not still in British
service."
The Shah is responsible for the Army's
conduct, but Mossadeq has asserted that he could not tolerate army
interference in civil affairs and that he might have to take steps to
counteract it.
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Comment: Mossadeq and the National Front
are determined to reduce the power of the Shah and to put the armed
forces under direct control of the government rather than of the ruler.
Since the Shah and the armed forces are the focal point of conservative
opposition to Mossadeq's government, their neutralization would
remove the most important non-Communist opposition.
An attempt by the National Front to penetrate
the air force has recently been reported by the US Air Attache in
Tehran. He adds, however, that Natiottal Front officers who were in
important positions have been removed. The Chief of Staff, backed
by the Shah, is upholding their dismissal in the face of strong pressure
from National Front leaders.
. Egyptian student groups prepare to act against government:
Egyptian university students who are members 3.3(h)(2)
of the terrorist "Liberation Battalions" are
considering demonstrations against Prime
Minister All Maher's policy of suppressing
all anti-British activities.
Other university students, members of the
Wafd Party, are ready "to declare war on the new government" if
such action is approved by the party's Secretary General.
Comment: These reports seem to show
that student opposition to the new Egyptian Government, though still
small-scale, is likely to increase rapidly if there is no visible
progress toward solving the Anglo-Egyptian impasse. Under the
Wafdist regime, Egyptian students played an important part in the
anti-British demonstrations in Cairo and Alexandria, as well as in
terrorist activities against British troops in the Canal zone.
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WESTERN EUROPE
9. Italy suspends strategic exports to Rumania:
The Italian Government is suspending the
issuance of export licenses to Rumania in
an effort to obtain the release of an Italian
Legation employee arrested in Bucharest
on espionage charges. Italy is not blocking shipment of embargoed
equipment already licensed and paid for, however, on the grounds
that such action would jeopardize the success of negotiations for the
employee's release. It believes that the temporary non-issuance of
export licenses may obtain the desired result, especially since Italy
has allowed its debit trade balance with Rumania to mount to
350,000 dollars.
Comment: Italy has consistently opposed
American proposals for joint representations by the Western powers
to Bucharest on the general problem of immunity of western nationals
in diplomatic missions in Rumania. It argues that such a step would
hurt its own negotiations for the release of the employee.
10. Britain recommends hands-off policy in Saar dispute:
The British Foreign Office has drafted for
Foreign Secretary Eclen's approval a proposal
that that Britain and the United States urge Germany
and France to solve the Saar question between
themselves, The Foreign Office believes that discussions with the
French and Germans might result in Anglo-American commitments
as well as arouse French and German resentment at being pressed
into an agreement.
A Foreign Office spokesman stated that politi-
cal considerations would probably not allow Chancellor Adenauer to
postpone negotiations on the Saar until after the problem of Germany's
status in the European Defense Community has been settled and con-
tractual relations have come into effect.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: West German officials had suggested
that the United States and Britain press Bonn and Paris for a settlement
of the Saar dispute, which is a major obstacle to agreement on Germany's
participation in Western defense.
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