CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/09/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02720959
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: September 6, 1958

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TOP SECRET
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6 September 1958
Copy No. C 59
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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6 SEPTEMBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait - Air and naval activ-
ity increase following lull; Mao Tse-
tung convenes Supreme State Con-
ference.
Pravda reiterates strong support
for Peiping.
Peiping prepared for "major clash"
if "forced by events"; evasive on
occupation of offshore islands
Tokyo - New Soviet ambassador may
reopen peace treaty negotiations.
East Germany may adopt stringent
controls to stop new high refugee flow.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
�Arab League's 6 September meeting
probably on ambassadorial level, with
higher level session later.
0 Lebanon - PPS elements threaten to
attack rebel Druze forces.
�Iran - Kurdish and Arab tribes re-
ported planning disturbance.
0 British officials predict major EOKA
campaign of violence about 1 October.
III. THE WEST
Anti-British feeling mounting danger-
ously in Iceland; may ultimately en-
danger NATO and US interests there.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
6 September 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
*Taiwan Strait situation (information as of 0100 EDT,
6 September): Chinese Communist air and naval activity in
the Taiwan Strait area increased on 5 September after a lull
of several days probably caused by severe weather conditions.
Peiping radio announced that Mao Tse-tung on 5 September
convened the 15th Supreme State Conference, a forum for an-
nouncing major policy decisions, and reportedly gave an "in-
cisive analysis" of the international situation. The Chinese
Nationalists have expressed concern lest the Taiwan Strait
situation be raised at the United Nations.
(Page 1)
USSR: On 5 September Pravda repeated strong ex-
pressions of Soviet support for Communist China, but
again stopped short of committing the USSR to direct mil-
itary involvement. Extensive charges of American "pro-
vocative" moves and belligerent intentions are apparently
intended to increase world-wide apprehension over the
prospect of imminent large-scale hostilities and to dis-
credit American policy toward the offshore islands. A
reference in the article to "a devastating counterblow"
which would put an end to "US imperialist aggression in
the Far East," taken together with the promise of "every
kind of aid," could be preparing the way for an announce-
ment that the USSR may make advanced weapons available
to Peiping. (Page 3)
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Communist China:
the Chinese Communists will
"avoid a major clash with the US if possible" but are "pre-
pared for it if they are forced by events."
the Communists have adequate
"troops� aircraft, and landing craft" on the South China
coast, but he "did not give a direct answer" to the question
of whether China planned to occupy the offshore islands.
He would not hear of any "provisional settlement on the
basis of the return of the coastal islands" with subsequent dis-
cussion of the Taiwan problem, as this would imply accept-
ance of the "two Chinas"theory.
USSR-Japan: N. T. Fedorenko, the new Soviet ambas-
sador, is expedted by Japanese officials to propose reopen-
ing of negotiations for a peace treaty upon his arrival in
Tokyo on 7 September. Fedorenko apparently accompanied
Khrushchev to Peiping in early August when Sino-Soviet tac-
tics toward Japan may have been reviewed. The Japanese
Government may sound him out on Soviet willingness to me-
diate trade and political problems between Japan and Com-
munist China. (Page 4)
East Germany: The regime is disturbed over the con-
tinued high number of escapes to the West, which last week
totaled more than 6,000, and is likely to adopt stricter con-
trol measures. Such action, if effective, would remove one
of the East German population's major safety valves.
(Page 5)
IL ASIA-AFR1CA
Arab League meeting: The meeting scheduled for 6 Sep-
tember in Cairo apparently will be attended only by ambassa-
dors of the member states. A meeting of the league foreign
ministers, or possibly chiefs of state, may be held later this
6 Sept 58
DAILY BRIEF Ii
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month. The Lebanese opposition in particular is asking for
a postponement until after General Shihab takes office on 24
Sentember.
Lebanon: Representatives of pro- Chamoun paramilitary
elements of the Syrian Social National party (PPS) have
threatened a general action against the rebels. Such a move
would probably be opposed at this time by their own high
command, but these local elements may attack Druze forces
in the regionsoutheast of Beirut, near an area where Amer-
ican forces are located. The present tactic of the PPS, as of
other pro- Chamoun groups, is to use the threat of force to
deter Shihab from further compromises with the rebels. If
Shihab becomes a figurehead for a rebel-dominated govern-
ment, fighting on a wider scale could occur.
(Page 6)
Iran: Kurdish tribes in the northwest and Arab tribes
in the west,aliegedly under Iraqi encouragement, are re-
ported to be restive, and to be planning a disturbance as
soon as the fall harvest is completed. Trouble in these
tribal areas might encourage other disaffected elements in
ountry to take action against the regime.
Page 8)
Cyprus: British officials on Cyprus predict a major
EOICA campaign of violence beginning around 1 October when
implementation of the new British plan is scheduled to begin.
Such violence would probably be designed to demonstrate the
need for UN intervention. Meanwhile the Greek foreign min-
ister has warned Britain that the decision to go ahead with the
(2-) plan could ultimately result in a Greek-Turkish war and that
Greece will fight "with all political means available" to im-
pede application of the plan. (Page 9)
6 Sept 58
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III. THE WEST
Iceland-UK: Public feeling against the British is mount-
ing dangerously in Iceland as a result of London's determina-
tion to protect its trawlers within Iceland's new 12-mile ter-
ritorial waters limit. A continued impasse reduces prospects
for a compromise and may endanger NATO and US interests
in Iceland. (Page 10)
6 Sept 58
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait Situation (as of 0100 EDT, 6 September)
Chinese Communist air and naval activity in the Taiwan
Strait area increased on 5 September after a lull of several
days probably caused by severe weather conditions. The air
activity, however, is still well below the level noted shortly
after the occupation of the coastal airfields. Operations by
Communist torpedo boats and patrol vessels in the Santu Bay
area have continued at a high level since 4 September.
With the return of good weather, a resumption of Chi-
nese Nationalist reconnaissance flights over the mainland
coast,and Communist air operations near the offshore islands,
additional and more frequent clashes can be expected.
Peiping radio states that Mao Tse-tung convened the 15th
Supreme State Conference in Peiping on 5 September. This
is a forum, the sole purpose of which is to announce major
policy decisions,
the conference agenda did not refer specifically to the Taiwan
Strait, but Mao is credited with giving an "incisive analysis"
of the domestic and international situation.
Chinese Nationalist Foreign Minister Huang has expressed
concern that the Taiwan Strait situation may be raised at the
United Nations. Even a condemnatory resolution regarding
Communist actions would not be welcome in Taipei since it
would raise the "two Chinas" issue.
Another reflection in Taipei of the offshore island crisis
has been a rise of approximately 25 percent in the blackmarket
rate for United States dollars between 30 August and 3 Septem-
ber. This is the first indication of popular concern over the
military situation.
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Chiang Kai-shek allegedly has stressed that South Korea
should attack North Xorea in the event of an armed con-
flict in the Taiwan Strait. Seoul appears anxious to exploit
the situation, but apparently has made no moves to date to
actively assist the Nationalists.
TOP SECRET
6 Sept 58 CENTRAL INTFLLICIFNCE RULLETIN
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'�RuPe' CONFIDENTIAL
Pravda Repeats Warning on Taiwan Strait Issue
Pravda on 5 September again expressed support for Com-
munist China in the Taiwan Strait crisis, stating that "the
Soviet people will extend to...the Chinese people every kind
of aid." The article, signed by the authoritative "Observer,"
asserted that the Soviet Union "cannot remain inactive" in the
face of events on the "territory of its brave ally," and warned
that the USSR "will not quietly watch US military preparations
in the Pacific." It concluded with a warning that the US "can-
not count on the retaliatory blow restricting itself to the area
of the offshore islands and the Taiwan Strait," but "will re-
ceive such a devastating counterblow that an end will be put
to US imperialist aggression in the Far East."
The tone of Pravda's latest warning is considerably harsher
than the 31 August article and the 3 September lzvestia state-
ment which made reference to the Sino-Soviet alliance. Like
the earlier statements, however, it stops short of committing
the Soviet Union to direct military involvement in the event of
a clash between American and Chinese Communist forces.
Much of the article is devoted to a recitation of US moves--
including American references to the availability of atomic
weapons�which Pravda interprets as "part of a plan for large-
scale military provocations" against Communist China and
other Asian countries. Soviet leaders probably expect that
charges of American provocations, when coupled with their
own expression of support of the Chinese communists, will
considerably increase world-wide apprehension over the pros-
pect of imminent large-scale hostilities.
While the Soviet warnings are in part designed to inhibit
US military counteraction, Moscow and Peiping are apparently
seeking to convert tensions in the area into a major interna-
tional issue which could be exploited politically. They may hope
to bring about high-level negotiations--possibly with Chinese
Communist participation--or to set the stage for a full-scale
debate in the forthcoming session of the UN General Assembly
on US policy toward Taiwan and the offshore islands, and the
Chinese representation question.
�CONFIDENTIAL
�
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CONFIDENTIAL
Moscow May Renew Peace Treaty Bid to Japan
N. T. Fedorenko, the new Soviet ambassador to Japan
and one of the Kremlin's top experts on China and the Far
East, is expected by the Japanese Foreign Ministry to pro-
pose reopening of negotiations for a peace treaty upon his
arrival in Tokyo on 7 September. Fedorenko, a former dep-
uty foreign minister, apparently accompanied Khrushchev
to Peiping in late August, at which time Sino-Soviet policies
toward Japan may have been reviewed and coordinated.
The Japanese do not expect that Fedorenko's terms would
be acceptable. Soviet officials now visiting Japan have given
no sign that Moscow will relax demands that Tokyo relinquish
its claims to the southern Kurils. The chief of the USSR's
Gosplan fisheries department, A. A. Ishkov, said in Tokyo
on 28 August that conclusion of a peace treaty "comes first."
When prodded by Foreign Minister Fujiyama in regard to a
Soviet guarantee of nonseizure for Japanese fishing boats,
Ishkov declared,the._ issue was "inseparable" from the terri-
torial problem and peace treaty. Tokyo is opposed to making
safe-fishing guarantees contingent on a peace treaty. The
Japanese Government may, however, sound out Fedorenko
on Soviet willingness to mediate trade and political problems
between Japan and Communist China.
Moscow's new team at the Tokyo embassy will be excep-
tionally strong. The minister-counselor, S. P. Suzdalev, is
a former ambassador to North Korea, who previously served
in Japan for six years, in Washington for two years, and was
a delegate to the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina.
CONFIDENTIAL
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East Germany Concerned Over Increasing Escapes to West
The East German regime is becomingly increasingly con-
cerned over the rising numbers fleeing to the West. The
number of refugees reached the highest point since Apri11956
during the week ending 2 September, with a total of more than
6,100, and Berlin authorities expect the rate will soon reach
1,000 per day. Pankow is particularly distressed at the large
number of intellectuals and technicians leaving the country,
as well as the continued drain of youths of military age, total-
ing 10,000 so far this year. More than 75 percent of eiscapes
now are through West Berlin, because of successful East
German measures to seal off the zonal borders between East
and West Germany. Pankow appears to be trying to cut down
on flights to West Berlin by controlling movement between
East Germany and Berlin. A ban on rail travel from stations
within 50 kilometers of the city has been put into effect, and
travelers reportedly must now secure written permission
from local police to travel to Berlin.
East German party boss Walter Ulbricht is reported to
have interrupted his vacation to confer with Moscow leaders
on further measures to cope with the situation,
Ulbricht himself favors harshness
but may find the Kremlin unwilling to sanction extreme meas-
ures which would violate the four-power status of Berlin.
The possibility of escaping to the West has hitherto acted
as an important safety valve for release of the widespread
popular discontent in East Germany. Some East German party
circles may still believe that dissident elements should be al-
lowed to leave rather than remain as potential troublemakers.
SECRET
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Pro-Chamoun Militants Threaten New Fighting in Lebanon
Military leaders of the pro-Chamoun Syrian Social Nation-
al party (PPS) in the mountains ten miles southeast of Beirut
have informed local US military authorities that they intend to
attack Karnal Jumblatt's rebel Druze forces soon. Jumblatt,
who has been building up his forces in an area near American
positions in the mountains, is said to expect further fighting
after Shillala assume3 the presidene-3%
Some PPS members fear
that after General Shihabts inauguration as president, the
Lebanese Army will fall under the command of persons desir-
ing to eradicate the PPS as Syria did. Although local PPS
units may take action against Jumblattgs forces, even before
Shihab becomes president, it is doubtful that party leaders
would countenance action on a wider scale until they are con-
vinced that Shihab has become a figurehead for a rebel-dom-
inated government.
President Chamoun, who has stated that he too expects
fighting to be renewed when American forces leave Lebanon,
does not expect General Shihab to back progovernment groups.
The belief that Shihab has reached an accommodation with
the rebels under which rebel leader Rashid Karame will be-
come prime minister is becoming general in Lebanon. Karame
already is reported to be considering his cabinet appointees
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and sounding out politicians for various posts,
Such reports will add consider-
am to we alarm ot progovernment elements and give them
further incentive to take matters into their own hands rather
than permit establishment of a rebel-dominated government.
SECRET
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Kurdish and Arab Tribes Plan Disturbances in Iran
Kurdish tribes in northwest Iran are reported to be plan-
ning disturbances with support from the new regime in Iraq
as soon as the fall harvesting is completed. The nature and
objective of their plan of action is as yet unknown but the tim-
ing suggests they may be preparing for a long struggle.
Iran, Turkey, and the former Iraqi monarchy have often
expressed concern that their sizable Kurdish minorities would
begin a coordinated campaign with foreign assistance to achieve
their long-standing aspiration for an independent state. Sev-
eral factors, however, have been holding Kurdish ambitions
in check. Many Kurds have been disillusioned with past out-
side exploitation of their cause; some have become prosperous
and are reluctant to endanger their economic status.
Therefore, if the 500,000 Iranian Kurds cause disturbances
this fall, they will probably be striving for limited objectives
such as better treatment by the government and increased eco-
nomic benefits. The delicate balance of political forces in
Iran, however, is such that a Kurdish revolt coupled with an
uprising of dissatisfied Arab tribes could, by keeping many
of Iran's security forces occupied, give civilian and military
plotters in Tehran the opportunity and the encouragement to
stage a coup d'etat.
-SEGRET
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Cyprus
British and Greek officials alike believe that the re-
newed EOKA violence on Cyprus will culminate in a major
campaign of terrorism about 1 October, when London in-
tends to begin implementation of its new plan for govern-
ment of the island's Greek and Turkish communities. Greek
Foreign Minister Averoff predicts that the arrival, sched-
uled about that date, of a Turkish representative to confer
with Governor Foot on implementation of the new plan "will
be the signal for general revolt." Averoff said Greece will
first warn NATO of possible consequences of the new plan
and will then use every available "political" means to prevent
its being carried out. He warned that EOICA attacks may be
aimed at the Turkish representative, a move which could ig-
nite intercommunal rioting on Cyprus and eventually lead to
a Greco-Turkish war.
Permission for the return of Archbishop Makarios to
Cyprus during September presumably will be discussed dur-
ing Governor Foot's current visit to London. While the Brit-
ish exavernment has repeatedly stated that Makarios could
return only after a period of peace on Cyprus, London might
grant permission as a result of the rapidly deteriorating
situation, in a last-minute attempt to prevent a complete
breakdown of order on the island. It is by no means certain,
however, that Makarios would return to Cyprus at this time
if granted permission. His recent statements reveal a
hardening of his attitude toward the British and indicate
that he intends to concentrate on securing a UN-sponsored
solution to the Cyprus controversy at the next session of
the General Assembly.
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III. THE WEST
British-Icelandic Fisheries Dispute
Anti-British feeling is mounting dangerously in Iceland
as a result of Britain's ccatinued protection of its trawlers
within Iceland's unilaterally proclaimed 12-mile limit. Par-
liament has reconvened, and the trade unions organized a
large demonstration against the British on 4 September. Ear-
lier this week the Municipal Council of Reykjavik demanded
the recall of Iceland's ambassador to London.
The inflamed state of public opinion has made it more
difficult for NATO officials to work out a compromise. The
Icelandic Government will not agree to any proposal which
does not amount to recognition of the new demarcation. A
continuation of "incidents" could induce Iceland to raise in
NAC itself the question of British "aggression." If Iceland
fails to receive support in NAC and the impasse continues,
resentment could easily shift to the US-manned NATO base
at Keflavik. Itelandnight also raise the whole matter at the
UN General Assembly.
London hopes that by defending its rights while seeking
to resume talks, it may induce Iceland to accept some for-
mula not involving British recognition of the 1,2-mile limit.
Britain is worried about the practical problems of fishing
under naval protection and the larger threat to its strategic
position in the -North Atlantic. At the moment, however,
London is primarily concerned over setting a dangerous
precedent for fishing-limit extension by the Faeroes and by
Norway
6 Sept 58
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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