CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/04/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733117
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: April 21, 1951

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21 April 1951
Copy No. CI-
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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AuTHIv1H,FliMf
DATE)ruriEwER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
USSR
L Pravda comments on MacArthur dismissal (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Jets reported in North Korean Air Force (page 3).
3. Popular dissatisfaction in China increasing (page 4).
NEAR EAST
4. British may misjudge conservative Iranian attitude on oil (page 4).
5. Iranians propose nationalization of Iranian-Soviet fisheries (page 5).
6. Conditions in Afghanistan deteriorating (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Anti-Soviet riot follows killings in Poland (page 6).
8. WFTU transfers its headquarters to Vienna (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Junta may take over Bolivian Government (page 8).
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USSR
. Pravda comments on MacArthur dismissal:
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The 'US Embassy in Moscow comments that 3.3(h)(2)
the 18 April Pravda editorial on the MacArthur
dismissal (1) reiterates the Soviet position on
the Korean war; (2) was needed to explain the
removal of an important "symbol of US aggressive policy" to the Commu-
nist world; (8) .a,nchtis noteworthy in asking what steps the US intends to
take for peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Comment: The Pravda editorial, which was
given prominent treatment, adds nor new twists to the established line,
which has consistently supported the Chinese terms of settlement.
The week's delay in Pravda's comment was probably due to a desire
to besure that the dismissal represented no basic change in US policies.
The question of US intentions on peaceful settlement is rhetorical in
context and therefore is not intended to suggest an interest on the part
of the USSR in such a settlement.
FAR EAST
2. Jets reported in North Korean Air Force:
An Air Force operational summary, report- 3.3(h)(2)
ing clashes on the Sino-Korean border between
UN and Communist aircraft on 16 April, states
that two of the MIG's engaged in the air battle
had North Korean markings "consisting of a red star encircled by a
red band, and a blue band as the exterior circle."
Comment: This is the first report received
In CIA that MIG/s with North Korean markings have been observed.
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� Li-CIL
3. Po ular d ss. isfa
Persons coming from Communist China
report that popular dissatisfaction with the
Peiping regime has grown in recent months
as a result of heavy casualties in Korea,
excessive taxation, police-state oppression in general and the current
purges in particular. However, there is no indication of an imminent
split in the regime, nor has there arisen any active resistance to it
by the Chinese masses, anti-Communist guerrilla activities appear to
be uncoordinated and incapable of posing a serious threat to the regime's
stability.
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In regard to foreign relations, these sources
state that Peiping's anti-US campaign has been ineffective, that the
regime is becoming increasingly hostile to the UK, and that, while
Sino-Soviet relations on the working level lack cordiality, the Sino-
Soviet alliance appears secure.
Comment: This account is in general supported
by conclusions which the US Consul General in Hong Kong has drawn
from recent interviews with many refugees from Communist China, and
by information from other sources.
NEAR EAST
4. British may misjucye conservative Iranian attitude on oil.:
US Ambassador Grady, in reviewing Anglo-
Iranian Oil Company "past differences" with
the US Embassy in Tehran, stated on 18 April
that "those differences were only with regard
to the policies of the company which have led them close to disaster.
Grady reports that the most conservative Iranian leaders hold a far
more extreme attitude toward nationalization than the AIOC and the
British Foreign Office realize.
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Comment: The AIOC has long exercised con-
siderable influence in Iran while it carried out its own policies, which
have at timeS been somewhat high-handed. In the present crisis the
company appears to think that time is on it side and that financial
pressure will eventually force the Iranian Government to accept the
company's terms. The company has, however, on the whole been
liberal in its policies toward Iranian workers and has treated them
fairly when judged by labor conditions as they exist in Iran. It is
obvious that any concession at this time short of.acceptance of the
principle of-nationalization will not solve the present�crisis.
5. Iranians propose nationalization of Lranian-Soviet fisheries:
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Iranian Prime Minister Ala has informed UE3.3(h)(2)
Ambassador Grady that Parliament plans to
nationalize the Caspian fisheries on expiration
of the Soviet concession in September 1952.
Several deputies are now drawing up a bill on this subject and will intro-
duce it shortly in Parliament.
Comment: The Caspian fisheries are owned
jointly by the Iranian and Soviet Governments with each government
holding 50% of the shares. The terms of the contract in theory permit
the Iranian Government to dissolve the company if it does not wish to
renew the contract; the companrs assets would then be divided between
the two governments. In practice the USSR has dominated the fisheries
and has enjoyed most of their profits. There is a strong possibility of
Soviet opposition to the nationalization measure, since Soviet security
interests in the Caspian Sea are involved.
� While the proposed bill to nationalize the
company might be interpreted as an extension of the current fever in
Iran for nationalization of foreign industry, it should not be compared
with the move for nationalization of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company,
which is envisaged as taking place immediately rather than when the
contract expires in 1993.
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6. Conditions in Afghanistan deteriorating:
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Comment: Anti-Pakistan propaganda
advocating the formation of an independent tribal state of Pushtoonistan
on the western boundary of Pakistan has been used in the past to inflame
Afghan opinion and to take the people's minds off the country's internal
problems. If conditions actually areoleteriorating within the country,
there is little likelihood that Afghanistan will agree to drop its propa-
ganda campaign preparatory to holding talks with Pakistan, as suggested
by the US on 6 November 1950 in an attempt to settle the outstanding
differences between the two countries. Preliminary talks held at
Salalabad in eastern Afghanistan in mid-April have already brolcen down
because of disagreement on this issue. It appears unlikely, therefore,
that more formal conversations will take place in the near future.
EASTERN EUROPE
7., Anti-Soviet riot follow killings in Poland:
lave informed the
US Embassy in Warsaw of a riot In Stettin
on 9 April following thq killing on the street 3.3(h)(2)
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of two Polish civilians by a Soviet officer. As a result, a crowd
collected and stoned the Russian, who, after killing three more Poles,
sought refuge in a nearby cellar. Polish militiamen present, pressed
by the crowd to shoot the Russian, refused; the crowd, incensed, shouted
that the militia could and did use arms against Poles but could not do so
against a Russian murderer. In a show of force, the militiamen fired
into the air; the people thereupon attacked the militiamen, killing at
least three and wounding others. The demonstration-was-quelled by the
Army, which surrounded the area and arrested some two thousand per-
sons. The US Embassy observes that, because of the complete control
exercised by the Polish authorities, no rumors of this incident are
current in Warsaw.
Comment; Previous reports of unrest and
labor difficulties in the Stettin area have been received. One report
alleges that ethnic Germans in the area are causing difficulties; a
second report states that a dock strike occurred in Stettin in February
as a spontaneous demonstration against the shipment of goods to the
USSR.
elements of the population were to be deported from the Polish-USSR
border and transported to the Stettin area; the presence of such disaf-
fected elements undoubtedly contributes to difficulties in this area.
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The Communist -dominated World Federation
of Trade Unions has decided to locate its head
quarters in Vienna, following the French Govern-
ment order dipsolving the international
headquarters in Paris. The federation s secretariat declares that Vienna
was chosen because of its favorable location and the "cordial welcome
which the Austrian workers are sure to give the federation. " The
Viennese Communist paper calls the development a "great distinction"
and "moral for Austrian worker S who, it is surel-will do all
possible to show themselves worthy of the high honor.
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Comment: The transfer of this Communist-
front organization to Vienna may make additional difficulties for the
Austrian Government, which is already under pressure from labor and
from Soviet interference with the Austrian police, and which is
threatened with strikes and Communist youth demonstrations.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Juntaa a.,__J�ii.,.a.LkeoIra),11_Niarmijailla,11t;
A group of Bolivian army officers has
reportedly formed a junta which plans to
take over the government by 23 April.
Defense Secretary Ponce Lozada and
Defense Sub-Secretary Ballivian are reported to be members of the
junta, which is said to include five officers and five civilians.
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Comment: Should it appear that the Nation-
alist Revolutionary Movement would poll more votes in the 6 May
presidential elections than the government-sponsored candidate or
that it would attempt a revolt prior to the elections, a military junta
headed by Ballivian may well take over the government. The junta's
purpose would be to restore order and call for and supervise another
election. At the present time it seems unlikely that either the
Nationalist Revolutionary Movement or the government party will
receive the required absolute majority of votes. It would then be
necessary for the winner to be selected by the Congress, in which
case the government party, with its allied political groups, should
be able to win.
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