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March 18, 2019
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March 28, 2019
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May 12, 1951
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15587343].pdf309.32 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 C6-2733125 tard TO HE 1 12 May 1951 Copy No. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 1 ; DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: T C NEXT REVIEW DA FE: 2.4>Or AUTO HR 4p- DA1al I -.1411:14T Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 1464; u-5-s4)14t1. td-14-- 2. Approved for Release: 2019/-03/14 CO2733125 TU.OSECRET SUMMARY GENERAL USSR offers another counter-proposal concerning Foreign Ministers' Conference (page 3). UK Government bans rubber shipments to Communist China (page 3). 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) ) 640.1ae�i4444145. T---Pred- 6. Pb1M13914,04:---7" 8. Mei-m-7k Interest of US companies in Iranian oil could add complications (pag FAR EAST Communist forces in Korea shift to east for next attack (page 5). NEAR EAST 5)0 Iranian military informed that Kurdish tribal revolt is brewing (page 6). Israel opposes any compromise over the demilitarized area along the Syrian-Israeli border (page 6). EASTERN EUROPE Unidentified submarine sighted in Yugoslav waters (page 7 LATIN AMERICA Armed services conspiracy against the Per6ns rumored (page 8). Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c) � 3.5(c) 1. Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 GENERAL 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) SR offers another counter- irososal toncernin Forel n Ministers' Conference� In the 10 Ma t7 session of the Paris conference, Soviet delegate Gr6myko accepted with three qualifications an agenda fOr a foreign ministers' meeting based on a Western alternative proposal. The qualifications are that (a) German demilitarization should be listed first as an agreed sub- item, (b) a Soviet proposal on North Atlantic Treaty bases should be added as an another unagreed point, and (c) the order of items should be examined. In a typical long propaganda harangA, Gromyko re-emphasized the peaceful policy of the Soviet Union as contraited with aggressive Western policies, such as the North Atlantic Treaty anti the continuation of Western flefense measutes while the deputies were meeting, Comment: Oh 2 May, the Western Powers introduced three separate alternative proposals ai4 their maximum effort to make possible a foreign ministers' meeting. Gromylio's latest tactic represents an attempt to capitalize on Western concessions in two of these proposals and thus to approach the original Soviet agenda dethands. On 4 May Gromyko "accepted" the first Western proposal provided that the Soviet position on reduction of armaments, limited to those of the four powers, be accepted. 2. UK Government bans rubber shipments to Communist China 3.3(h)(2) In announcing to Parliament that the UK Government is imposing an immediate embargo on further ship- ments of rubber to Communist China in 1951, Sir Hartley Shawcross, the President of the Board of Trade, emphasized that the US had not in any way "agreed" to the British control action, After justifying the embargo on the ground that excessive quantities of rubber have already been shipped this year, Shawcross pointed out that general exports to China from US-controlled Japan had also in- creased recently, Shawcross did promise support for the US with respect to UN measures restricting trade with China, Immediately before his speech, Winston Churchill asked for the rubber embargo in the name of US-UK Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 SECRET 3.5(c) cooperation, urged Parliament not to be deterred by any threat to Hong Kong, and argued that the US' would undoubtedly join in any measures that wouk' J.3(h)(2) be necessary to meet such a threat TOP ET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2-619/03/14 CO2733125 CRET **I I 1_1 a.a �Ell � Of 3.5(c) The US Embassy in London concurs with the 3.3(h)(2) Department of State that the employment of a US company to exploit Iranian oil might have unfortunate repercussions. The Embassy fears that such a development would lend substance to the Soviet line that the US is attempting to "gain mastery" over Iran and that US oil companies are seeking to supplant UK interests in Iran. Any move which might suggest that the US, or US industry, was enriching itself at the expense of a weakened partner would result in widespread resentment and disillusionment in the UK and would inevitably undermine the effectiveness of US-UK partniership. Cq,mment; In late April, the Departmen of State informed the US Embassy in Tehran that it understood "on reliable authority" that the Iranian Embassy in Washington had received two or three offers from US oil companies. While there is no evidence that Iran is seriously contem- plating using US firms, their offers may influence the thinking of some Iranian leaders and may further complicate Iran's relations with the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Iranian Prime Minister Mossadeq, who has acknowledged that foreign oil experts are necessary for the time being, is probably considering the possibility of employing experts from various foreign countries. FAR EAST 5. Communist forces in Korea shift to east fc__.)s_1,1xt attack, In an estimate of enemy capabilities, the US Far East Command notes that recent agent, civilian and prisoner reports support the suspected movement of major Chinese Communist elements from the western sector to the Kumwha-Hwachon area of the central front. Elements of the Chinese Communist 3rd and 19th Army Groups are involved in this 'moue. Apparently Chinese Communist Fourth Field Army units, currently occupying the central sector, are moving further east. The Far East Command comments that, because the recent enemy effort to secure the Seoul-Inchon complex failed, it would not be illogical for the enemy to shift its efforts to the central sector, where it has had previous successes. - 5 - TO CRET Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 Tc.,13 T NEAR EAST 6. 1r ani an military informed that Kurdish tribal jsztaida 3.5(c) A 3.3(h)(2) Comment:, These Kurdish tribal groups, roughly estimated at 100, 000 individuals, are located close to the Iranian-lraqi frontier in the Senandaj area -- not on the Soviet border. A Javanrudi revolt was forcibly put down by the Iranian Army as recently as September 1950. At that time, there were rumors of Soviet involvement. The present "foreign propaganda" might, of course, refer to the USSR; it is more likely a reference to the British, who reportedly have recently been accused by several Iranian military commanders of engaging in-activity in tribal areas. Tribal leaders in various sections of Iran have recently made protestations of loyalty to the Shah, presumably as a result of governmental suspicions that the British were engaged in intrigues. Reports of unrest recur frequently and cannot be con- strued as a firm indication of forthcoming disturbances. 3.3(h)(2) 7. Israel o oses an corn sromise over the d Israeli border: k' - -6 Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 TCA) SECRET 3.5(c) Moreover, US Ambassador Davis in Tel Aviv reports his belief that (a) the manner in which the UN Security Council is handling the Israeli-Syrian frontier dispute will generally stiffen Israel's attitude on the border issue and (b) Eban was correct when he recently asserted that "Israel would display special tenacity" in regard to the :demilitarized area. Comment: While fighting along the Israeli-Syrian frontier has lessened in the last few days, the actual dispute is no closer to solution. On the on. hand, the attitude of the government and the Israeli public has stiffened and, on the other, the reaction of Syria and the Arab States generally is becoming more hostile not only toward Israel but also toward the West. EASTERN EUROPE 8. Unidentified submarine sighted in YugoslAy waters. 3.3(h)(2) Deputy Chief of Staff Admiral Manola has informed the US Naval Attache in Belgrade that two sightings of one, possibly two, unidentified submarines were made on 6 May near the islands of Lastovo and Vis in the Adriatic within the Yugoslav six mile lfmit. The US Attache reports that, when Admiral Manola was informed that the submarine was not American, he was visibly upset and stated that he had hoped that it would have been a US submarine. Manola commented that there was no reason why the Soviet Union should observe these islands since Soviet officials had supervised the installations on the islands (prior to 1948). Comment: It is entirely possible that the submarine or submarines sighted were of Western origin. The USSR is not known to have any submarines in the Mediterranean, although numerous unconfirmed reports have been received of submarine activity at Saseno Island, Albania. �7 - TOP R Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 (410 RET LATIN AMERICA Aur against the Per6ns rumored:. i'3.3(h)(2) The US Embassy in Buenos Aires reports "insistent and continued rumors" of an armed services cons- piracy against the Per6ns have recently been uncovered. According to the Embassy, various Army and Navy officers are believed to be under arrest and rumors are flying fast, but facts are scarce. Comment: Reports of an army conspiracy against the Per6ns at this time are in line with other indications of increasing political instability in Argentina. There are signs of continuing labor unrest -- now serious among railroad workers -- and evidence that non-Peronista groups are gaining in public favor and influence with labor. These developments may have caused some members of the army, who are already aroused over Peron's reportedly firm decision to allow Mrs. Per6n to run for Vice-President, to conspire against the Per6ns. Furthermore, the recent reported arrest of Mrs. Sosa Molina -- the wife of Minister of National Defense General Sosa Molina, who is the spokesman of an army group that has opposed Mrs. Per4's activities for several years -- may have touched off a conspiracy by army elements. -8 Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733125 3.5(c)