CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733128
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 19, 1951

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19 May 1951
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 5
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT RE-:VIEW DATE:
AUTi�laiRg-91
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DATE. _ IL:VIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
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2. Chinese Nationalists reported to have entered South China (page 3).
NEAR EAST
441171114 414444
11"J&A**fr-64.4444.
3. Soviets reportedly attempting to gain Patriarchate of Armenian Church (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. No immediate renewal of Berlin blockade expected (page 5). WESTERN EUROPE
EUROPE
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6. New alliance of right-wing French parties further weakens center (page 6).4".
7. Inter-ministerial differences hamper scope of Italian rearmament (page
8. Italy urges Western initiative in Middle East (page 7). e1-414J -f-47,44v171-11 94644*,
9. Franco may be planning move to forestall Madrid strike (page ArT7L--
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FAR EAST
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2. Chinese Nattopalists reported _to have entered South China;
The Chinese Nationalist Charge in Bangkok has
informed the US Embassy there that all Nationalist
troops formerly in Burma have now moved into 3.3(h)(2)
Yunnan Province, China, crossing the border
farther northward than originally planned in order to avoid a concentration
of Chinese Communist troops. The Chinese Charge comments that if the
Nationalists are attacked by the Communists, they will "probably take to
the hills in Yunnan,
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NEAR EAST
3. Soviets repsstedly attemptinkto gain Patriarchate of Armenian church;
According to the US Charge in Beirut, in
January the Armenian Patriarch, who is
reportedly on the point of death, nominated
Archbishop Atchabahian of Beirut as his
successor -- a choice that is believed to be acceptable to the majority
of anti-Soviet groups within the local Armenian Church, whose council
is charged with the responsibility of appointing a new patriarch. The
Charge states that two Soviet Armenian agents have reportedly been active
in attempting to develop a plan to have the present patriarch declared
senile and incapable of heading the church and thus, presumably, creating
an opportunity for the appointnient of a pro-Soviet patriarch. On 16 May,
the Lebanese President told the US Charge that he would a0:k the Directoy
General of the Surete to make a thorough investigation of Communist
attempts to win over the patriarchate of the Armenian Church.
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Comment; The Soviets have long been attempting
to penetrate the Armenian Church and have used former Armenian residents
of Lebanon who were encouraged to migrate to Soviet Armenia a few years
ago. Any successful penetration of the Armenian Church by the Soviets would
prove an effective means for extending Communist influence in the Near East
because of the considerable number of Armenians living in this area.
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EASTERN EUROPE
5. rs immediate renewal of per lint,1311/4oc de (expected
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The Commander-in-Chief of US Air. Yorceslin
Europe estimates that a renewal of the Berlin
blockade, as a separate and distinct operation
rather than as part of other and more complex
operations, is unlikely in the near futqe. Am3.3(h)(2)
the advantages to the USSR of such an operation,
the US Air Force in Europe cites the difficulty
involved in US reinstitution of the airlift in view
of other commitments and of substantial Soviet capabilities to interfere with
an airlift by means short of war. Noting the absence of positive intelligence
regarding Soviet intentions in this matter, it concludes that -Buell an airlift et,b/00
is unlikely, because of (a) Berlin's st*kpile of five months' supplies; (b) 44
the Soviet expectation of a retaliatory embargo on all shipments to Eastern
Germany from the West, probably destroying any chance of fulfilling the
East German five year plan; and (c) the probability that 200 four-engine
aircraft, the number used in the previous airlift, could be produced or
procured without withdrawals from Korea.
consider a reimposition of the Berlin blockade unlikely before the end of 1951.
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the USSR would probably be unwilling to impose another
blockade now, primarily because this would (a) interfere with its present
drive against West German remilitarization and other East-V.Itst issues,
(b) jeopardize the sucaess of the coming World Youth Festival in Berlin, and
(c) require sacrificing Berlin as a main transshipment point.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. New allignce of right-wine French Parties fprther weakens center:
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According to the US Ernbassyr in Paris,, a new
alliance of Right of Center parties, the "Union of
Independents, Peasants and National Republicans,"
has been formed for the purpose of creating a bloc
in the next Assembly large enough to "stand up to De Gaulle" and "treat"
with him on equal terms. The Ernbassy comments that the new group will
be able to do this only if it can conclude a firm alliance with the Radical
Socialists, the only other important non-Daullistpary olither-FlOt, and
that the Radicals are likely to decide upon a loose bond with the new grouping
when their congress meets this week-end. Popularly known as the "Fourth
Force," this new political alliance is viewed by some observers as sounding
the death knell of the "Third Force" coalitions that have governed France
since 1947 and have stpered, a middle course between Communism and
Gaullism
Comment: This development, together with
De Gaulle's recent order that his party's candidates may not form electoral
alliances with other parties, increases the likelihood of a major shift to
the Right in the new Assembly to be elected 17 June. The two largest "Third
Force" parties, the Popular Republicans and the Socialists, will have fewer
seats in the new Assembly than has been anticipated; and it will probably
prove impossible to construct a government excluding the Gaullists.
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7. ' Inter-ministerial differences hamper scope of Italian rearmament:
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the difference in economic philosophy 3.3(h)(2)
between Italian Minister of Commerce Togni, who
favors a corporative economy, and Treasury
Minister Pella, who favors a free enterprise system,
is preventing the formulation of a definite economic
policy and is delaying the development of a rearmament
program commensurate with Italian capabilities.
The former Minister of the Treasury Corbin� attributes Pella's persistent
opposition to rearmament to his "accountant's mentality" and to the fact that
he is a "neutralist. " Corbino comments that, in his opinion, the present
Italian supplemental military budget should be considerably increased and
that dollar aid should be sufficient to avoid the necessity of reducing consumption
by lower income groups.
In the meantime, the announcement that about half
of the $71 million ECA funds recently released to the Italians would be used to
purchase new materials for Italy's defense effort is :expected to encourage the
Italian defense effort and to counter Communist charges that rearmament
means inflation.
Comment: Corbino's views support previous
estimates of US observers to the eMct that Italy's rearmament effort is
below Italian capabilities and its economic policy is inconsisetent. This is
the first indication that Treasury Minister Pella is a "neutralist"; if true,
this would be damaging to US security interests in Italy. Pella's apprehensions
over the effects of rearmament also spring from an overriding fear of
inflation.
. Italy urges Western initiative in Middle East:
An official of the Italian Foreign Office has stated
that the Italian Government is concerned over the 3.3(h)(2)
deterioration of political conditions in the Middle
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East, particularly as a result of developments in Iran, and believes that a
Western initiative should be taken to reverse the present trend. He indicated
that the Italian Government would be satisfied with either the inclusion of
Turkey or Greece in NATO or with a separate security arrangement for the
Mediterranean, the latter having the advantage of holding out hope to other
countries such as Egypt for eventual inclusion.
Comment, Italy is becoming increasingly con-
cerned at what it regards as the lack of political initiative in the West in
contrast to the Soviet bloc. It has been a long-standing objective of Italian
foreign policy to integrate Turkish and Greek defense more closely into
Western defense arrangements in order to protect Italy's exposed eastern
flank. The Italian Government will therefore firmly support US efforts to
have Greece and Turkey included in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Franco may be planning move to forestall Madrid strike:
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Meanwhile,
the US Embassy in Madrid remarks that the series of editorials in the 17 Ma y 3.3(h)(2)
government-controlled newspapers warning of the "dire consequences" of
protest strikes appears to be a. deliberate attempt to intimidate the Madrid
populace.
Comment There has been an unusual crop of rumors
regarding contemplated cabinet changes during the past several months. Franco
could well consider this the appropriate m-oment to make- some -dramatic -
pronouneement designed to assuage momentarily the current wave of popular
discontent.
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