CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/11/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739313
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 18, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
18 November 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETINx
DOCUMENT NO.
NO
NO CHANGE 1N CLASS. "If.
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NEXT FIEVIEVv. DATE: ,
DATENP _
AUTH� FIR 70-11
47
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUFMARY
� GENERAL
British disturbed by course of Korean truce negotiations (page 3).
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3. Revolt in Ethiopia be-comes more probable (page 4).
4. Greece suggests abolishmeut of-UN Balkan Commission (page4 ).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Communist-led strike cripples French economy (page 5).
6. Italy seeks approval of barter agreement with Czechoslovakia (page 6).
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GENERAL
British disturbed by pourse of Korean truce negotiations:
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he United States Embassy in London believes
hat Foreign Secretary Eden's 19 November
arliamentary statement on Korea p will be
elpful in giving "a badly needed explanation"
confusion over the issues at stake, and doubt
over the source of the obstacles placed in the way of a settlement, is re-
flected in the press and "extends even into the Foreign Office," Press
comment has questioned in particular the competence of the present UN
negotiators as well as the accuracy and completeness of the information
given out by the UN Commander in Chief.
Comment: Left-wing criticism has also
focused on the lack of BritisE or Commonwealth representation on the
negotiating committee; and Prime Minister Churchill on 15 November
evidently found it necessary to re-affirm publicly the Government's con-
fidence in UN leadership in Korea.
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3. Revolt in Ethiopia becomes more probable:
The probability of an armed insurrection 3.3(h)(2)
against the Government of Ethio ia is radu-
ally increasing,/
The city's population
has been further alienated by a series of 1n3.3(h)(2)
ci en t destruction by municipal authorities of di-
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lapidated houses belonging to the poor, without notice or recompense.
an armed revolt is likely to occur at any time within a year.
the Ethiopian Armed Forces do not
have the necessary weapons and ammunition to suppress a revolution at
the present time.
Comment: /
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While the few Communist elements in Ethiopia would undoubtedly capitalize
on and probably abet any disorders accompanying a sudden coup, an armed
revolt would be directly instigated by dissatisfied tribal groups, possibly
with the cooperation of army elements, rather than by any prO-Soviet group
of Ethiopians.
The US Ambassador in Addis Ababa, regards
the situation as serious,but feels that the Emperor must be aware of what
is going on and presumably is taking appropriate steps.
4. Greece suggests abolishment of .UN Balkan Commission:
The Greek UN representatives in Paris have
told US delegates that Greece favors the abo-
lition of the UN Balkan Commission without
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replacement by a new body and without the continuance of observers in
the field. Greece fears that continued UN supervision of its borders
implies a weakness and so jeopardizes its position in NATO. Greece,
moreover, does not wish its frontier case to reappear on the General
Assembly agenda, especially since there is an almost complete absence
of significant frontier incidents.
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Comment: Abandoning its original contention
that the Commission should be retained, Greece recently expressed itself
as sympathetic to the US view that the Commission should be replaced by
a subcommittee of the Peace Observation Committee without Soviet or
Satellite members. Mote recently, however, Greek spokesmen have
been very critical of the Observation Committee and expressed the view
that the Committee was worse than no UN supervision at all.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Communist-led strike cripples French economy!
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The American Embassy in Paris sees no
early solution for the serious strike by which
French Communists are obstructitg the stra-
tegic French coal industry. The Government
so ar s own no w ingness to back down while such a large-scale
strike is under way, and it now seeras likely that the walkout will spread
to the important Saar and Lorraine basins. Despite the opposition of
Socialist union leaders, the Socialist locals have been unable to withstand
the pressure from the rank and file and have joined the strikers.
By curtailing medical benefits which French
miners have enjoyed for over 50 years, the Government precipitated the
strike and presented the Communists with a perfect situation to exploit
economic grievances for political ends.
Comment: Premier Pleven has described the
1951 coal shortage as the greatest problem currently facing France. The
Government has recently declared its intention of curtailing coal imports
from dollar sources. Even with their current imports, estimated at over
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15 million tons for the year, the French are still unable to lift steel pro-
duction over 85% of capacity. The loss of as much as one week's produc-
tion will be a serious blow to the French economy.
In view of the speed with which this strike has
mushroomed, the Government can be expected to offer an early compromise
in order to prevent a greater loss to the defense effort.
6. Italy seeks approval of barter agreement with Czechoslovakia:
The Italians are pressing the Coordinating
Committee on East-West Trade (COCOM)
for approval of a barter agreement which
provides mainly for the exchange of Italian
ball bearings against Czechoslovak special steels, coal, cellulose, and
other goods. Sixty percent of the ball bearings are types now embargoed,
but private contracts covering their delivery were made prior to the
COCOM embargo.
The Italians are defending the barter agree-
ment on the basis that 90 percent of the Czech counterpart deliveries
are raw materials essential to the Italian economy, that such raw ma-
terials are in short suppW in the West, and that a rupture in Italo-Czech
trade may result if the agreement is not approved. Because further
delay would compromise the export of certain seasonal Italian products,
the Italian Government has already begun to implement part of the
agreement.
Comment: This situation, in essence, high-
lights the difficult position in which the Italians find themselves as a
result of their lack of natural resources. In return for important quanti-
ties of coal, wheat, manganese, and other raw materials from the Com-
munist bloc, the Italians feel they must export a certain minimum of
strategic items.
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