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April 15, 2019
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April 22, 2019
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November 18, 1951
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15603296].pdf227.19 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 TOP SECRET SECURITY INFORMATION 18 November 1951 Copy No. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETINx DOCUMENT NO. NO NO CHANGE 1N CLASS. "If. DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: NEXT FIEVIEVv. DATE: , DATENP _ AUTH� FIR 70-11 47 Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY SECURITY INFORMATION Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 SUFMARY � GENERAL British disturbed by course of Korean truce negotiations (page 3). NEAR EAST 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3. Revolt in Ethiopia be-comes more probable (page 4). 4. Greece suggests abolishmeut of-UN Balkan Commission (page4 ). WESTERN EUROPE 5. Communist-led strike cripples French economy (page 5). 6. Italy seeks approval of barter agreement with Czechoslovakia (page 6). TOP-S-F-GRET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 rtop_srpieRET GENERAL British disturbed by pourse of Korean truce negotiations: 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) he United States Embassy in London believes hat Foreign Secretary Eden's 19 November arliamentary statement on Korea p will be elpful in giving "a badly needed explanation" confusion over the issues at stake, and doubt over the source of the obstacles placed in the way of a settlement, is re- flected in the press and "extends even into the Foreign Office," Press comment has questioned in particular the competence of the present UN negotiators as well as the accuracy and completeness of the information given out by the UN Commander in Chief. Comment: Left-wing criticism has also focused on the lack of BritisE or Commonwealth representation on the negotiating committee; and Prime Minister Churchill on 15 November evidently found it necessary to re-affirm publicly the Government's con- fidence in UN leadership in Korea. 3.3(h)(2) NEAR EAST 3 Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 1461T-SECRET 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3. Revolt in Ethiopia becomes more probable: The probability of an armed insurrection 3.3(h)(2) against the Government of Ethio ia is radu- ally increasing,/ The city's population has been further alienated by a series of 1n3.3(h)(2) ci en t destruction by municipal authorities of di- 3.3(h)(2) lapidated houses belonging to the poor, without notice or recompense. an armed revolt is likely to occur at any time within a year. the Ethiopian Armed Forces do not have the necessary weapons and ammunition to suppress a revolution at the present time. Comment: / 3.3(h)(2) While the few Communist elements in Ethiopia would undoubtedly capitalize on and probably abet any disorders accompanying a sudden coup, an armed revolt would be directly instigated by dissatisfied tribal groups, possibly with the cooperation of army elements, rather than by any prO-Soviet group of Ethiopians. The US Ambassador in Addis Ababa, regards the situation as serious,but feels that the Emperor must be aware of what is going on and presumably is taking appropriate steps. 4. Greece suggests abolishment of .UN Balkan Commission: The Greek UN representatives in Paris have told US delegates that Greece favors the abo- lition of the UN Balkan Commission without - 4 - TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 C replacement by a new body and without the continuance of observers in the field. Greece fears that continued UN supervision of its borders implies a weakness and so jeopardizes its position in NATO. Greece, moreover, does not wish its frontier case to reappear on the General Assembly agenda, especially since there is an almost complete absence of significant frontier incidents. 3.5(c) Comment: Abandoning its original contention that the Commission should be retained, Greece recently expressed itself as sympathetic to the US view that the Commission should be replaced by a subcommittee of the Peace Observation Committee without Soviet or Satellite members. Mote recently, however, Greek spokesmen have been very critical of the Observation Committee and expressed the view that the Committee was worse than no UN supervision at all. WESTERN EUROPE 5. Communist-led strike cripples French economy! 3.3(h)(2) The American Embassy in Paris sees no early solution for the serious strike by which French Communists are obstructitg the stra- tegic French coal industry. The Government so ar s own no w ingness to back down while such a large-scale strike is under way, and it now seeras likely that the walkout will spread to the important Saar and Lorraine basins. Despite the opposition of Socialist union leaders, the Socialist locals have been unable to withstand the pressure from the rank and file and have joined the strikers. By curtailing medical benefits which French miners have enjoyed for over 50 years, the Government precipitated the strike and presented the Communists with a perfect situation to exploit economic grievances for political ends. Comment: Premier Pleven has described the 1951 coal shortage as the greatest problem currently facing France. The Government has recently declared its intention of curtailing coal imports from dollar sources. Even with their current imports, estimated at over - 5 - TOP-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 aioap_sEreRET. 15 million tons for the year, the French are still unable to lift steel pro- duction over 85% of capacity. The loss of as much as one week's produc- tion will be a serious blow to the French economy. In view of the speed with which this strike has mushroomed, the Government can be expected to offer an early compromise in order to prevent a greater loss to the defense effort. 6. Italy seeks approval of barter agreement with Czechoslovakia: The Italians are pressing the Coordinating Committee on East-West Trade (COCOM) for approval of a barter agreement which provides mainly for the exchange of Italian ball bearings against Czechoslovak special steels, coal, cellulose, and other goods. Sixty percent of the ball bearings are types now embargoed, but private contracts covering their delivery were made prior to the COCOM embargo. The Italians are defending the barter agree- ment on the basis that 90 percent of the Czech counterpart deliveries are raw materials essential to the Italian economy, that such raw ma- terials are in short suppW in the West, and that a rupture in Italo-Czech trade may result if the agreement is not approved. Because further delay would compromise the export of certain seasonal Italian products, the Italian Government has already begun to implement part of the agreement. Comment: This situation, in essence, high- lights the difficult position in which the Italians find themselves as a result of their lack of natural resources. In return for important quanti- ties of coal, wheat, manganese, and other raw materials from the Com- munist bloc, the Italians feel they must export a certain minimum of strategic items. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2739313 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c)