CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02870930
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 8, 1954

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8 April 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. -
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. East Germans to ask at Geneva for new European conference (page 3).
2. USSR reportedly urges Afghanistan to accept military aid (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Soviet secret police apparatus possibly re-created as independent
government organ (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Another jet fighter division apparently transferred to Shanghai area
(page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5.
6. Crisis at Dien Bien Phu may be past (page 6).
7. Thai ambassador urges support of Dulles' united action proposal
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Saudi Arabia may press ARAMCO to relinquish Trucial oil rights
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Italy may exploit deteriorating Trieste situation (page 7).
10. British rumored preparing to pull out of Trieste (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. East Germans to ask at Geneva for new. European conference:
the presidium of the East German Council
of Ministers in late February ordered
Foreign Minister Bolz to prepare a memo-
randum for submission to "the five powers" near the end of the Geneva
conference which would demand a new conference on European matters
with East and West Germany participating. Bolz will claim that a prece-
dent has been set by the admission to Geneva of North and South Korea
as official participants or even as unofficial "third parties."-
Comment: The submission of such a
memorandum would be consistent both with East Germany's new
"sovereignty" and with the recent Soviet agitation for talks on Euro-
pean security. A report that Bolz is in Moscow, presumably for con-
sultation, has been lent credibility by his absence since 11 March from
official functions in Berlin.
2. USSR reportedly urges Afghanistan to accept military aid:
Foreign Minister Nairn has stated that the
Soviet ambassador has called on him "prac-
tically every other day" since the announce-
ment of the Turkish-Pakistani agreement,
and has pressed the Afghan government to accept Soviet technical and
military aid, according to the UN technical assistance mission repre-
sentative. Naim added that he had delayed replying to the Soviet am-
bassador, but felt that the time for stalling was running out.
Comment: The Soviet Union had previously
pressed Afghanistan to accept economic and technical aid, but this is
the first report of a Russian offer of military assistance. Up to now the
USSR has not granted military aid to any non-Orbit country. This offer,
if it has in fact been made, would suggest that Moscow is especially con-
cerned over the possibility of Afghanistan's participation in military
planning under Western aegis.
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Afghanistan has indicated that it would like
to join the Turkish-Pakistani defense pact, or a similar arrangement,
if its Pushtoonistan dispute with Pakistan were settled. It is unlikely
that Afghanistan will accept Soviet military aid as long as it has any
hope of Western support.
SOVIET UNION
3. Soviet secret police apparatus possibly re-created as independent
government organ:
the old Ministry of State Secu-
rity (MGB) may have been re-established as
an organ of the Soviet government separate, from the Ministry of Internal
Affairs (MVD).
Comment: The abolition of the MGB and the
assumption of its functions by the MVD in March 1953 apparently was a
part of the effort of Berta, then MVD chief, to expand his authority after
Stalin's death. At the same time the new MVD relinauished its economic
functions,
forced labor and other
economic functions had been or were being returned to the MVD, uniting
the state security and forced labor organizations in a single government
organ.
The present separation of the state security
organization from the MVD, rather than denoting a new emphasis on the
coercive apparatus, would appear to be a logical measure designed to
promote administrative efficiency and avoid concentrating too much
power in one ministry. A new state security organization would probably
include at least the militia, the secret police, and the espionage organs
of the old MGB.
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FAR EAST
4. Another jet fighter division apparently transferred to Shanghai area:
Comment: The transfer probably involved
a Chinese Communist jet fighter unit based originally in southeast
Manchuria. This unit may well have been an unidentified MIG-15 unit
of division .strength which has not been reported active at its base at
Antung. since mid-March.
The transfer of a division of about 50 MIG-15's
would bring to three the total number of Chinese Communist jet fighter
divisions based in the Shanghai and Hangchow area. Total strength of
all types in this vicinity, site of the largest concentration of aircraft in
China proper, would be increased to approximately 250. The expected
dispersal of some of these aircraft to bases along China's unprotected
coast between Hangchow and Canton must await renovation or construc-
tion of airfields.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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6. Crisis at Dien Bien Phu may be past:
According to the American army attach�n
Saigon, the French believe that the arrival
of a parachute battalion to reinforce Dien
Bien Phu during the past few days has im-
proved the French defense to a point that the
. The French estimate that the Viet Minh does
not have the short-range capability of taking Dien Bien Phu. However,
several days of bad weather preventing supply drops would again make
the French position dangerous.
The attach�ays that the inability of the
French air force to neutralize Viet Minh field and antiaircraft artillery,
whose location and effectiveness remain of primary importance to the
situation, is difficult to understand. So long as enemy fire denies use
of the airstrips, the French will have to rely on airdrops, and the rota-
tion of troops and evacuation of wounded will remain serious problems.
7. Thai ambassador urges support of Dulles' united action proposal:
Comment: A guarantee of American inter-
vention in case of attack has been a primary objective of Thai foreign
policy since the war. It is therefore probable that the Thai ambassador's
recommendation will be accepted.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Saudi Arabia may press ARAMCO to relinquish Trucial oil rights:
Ambassador Wadsworth in Jidda reports
that Saudi Arabia may bring pressure to
bear on the Arabian-American Oil Company
(ARAMCO) to relinquish its concessionary
rights in the disputed Tru.cia1 coast area on the Persian Gulf. The
Saudis apparently hope to obtain political sovereighty over most of this
territory in return for transferring the oil rights to the British-controlled
Iraqi Petroleum Company or to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
Wadsworth and ARAMCO representatives are
concerned over recent anti-American statements made by King Saud and
other high Saudi officials, as well as over reportedly widespread Saudi
opinion favoring a British oil concession. ARAMCO has stated that it
will not voluntarily surrender any concessionary rights and has requested
the British oil companies to cease their activities in the disputed area.
Comment: The Saudi Arabian government
has previously indicated to ARAMCO that it wanted to cut down the size
of the concessions. By establishing a rival British concession inside
their frontier, the Saudis hope to achieve larger revenues by playing
the companies off against each other.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Italy may exploit deteriorating Trieste situation:
American political adviser Higgs fears
that the deteriorating Italian position in
Trieste may lead the Italian government
to bring pressure on the United States and
Great Britain in an effort to obtain conces-
sions.
Higgs reports that the "Italian cause" in
Trieste has never been so low. He estimates that 90 percent of the
Trieste populace fully approved the resignation of Italian political
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adviser de Castro on 2 April and its implied criticism of :ftalian
officials. He adds that the Communists, relying on the present
situation, are taking more initiative in agitating among labor groups
and on other matters.
Ambassador Luce reports that a public
campaign in Italy on the Trieste question may be expected in view
of the continuing publicity on De Castro% resignation.
Comment: Any pressure by Italy
would probably be designed to get immediate implementation of the
8 October declaration.
10. British rumored preparing to pull out of Trieste:
Britain has decided for financial reasons
to pull its forces out of Trieste and turn
over its responsibilities there to the United
States, according to rumors current among
British officers and others in Trieste.
The American political adviser in Trieste
notes that Commander Winterton of Zone A was unusually preoccupied
and uncommunicative before leaving for London recently. The British
political adviser has been almost totally indifferent of late to Trieste
problems.
Comment: Britain has long wished to
withdraw from Trieste, partly because of the military expense, and
also because of the political abuse heaped on the British element by
the Italians and Yugoslays. Britain reduced its forces in Austria last
fall with little more than a gesture toward consulting its allies.
Britain's withdrawal would leave the United
States with full responsibility for Zone A affairs and would almost
certainly result in increased Italian pressure for full implementation
of the Anglo-American declaration of 8 October.
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