CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02870932
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 10, 1954

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10 April 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. e6
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 200 9
P.!TH. HR 70-2
ATE: 4'/79 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. French official pessimistic over long-term prospects at Dien Bien Phu
(page 3).
2. Laniel reported threatening to withdraw support of Vietnamese
independence (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on possibility of more British troops going to Jordan
(page 4).
4. Comment on resignation of Libyan cabinet (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Defense agreement with Iceland seen Jeopardized (page 5).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. French official pessimistic over long-term prospects at Men Bien Phu:
French forces will be able to repulse an
anticipated third major attack on Dien Bien
Phu, but the future of the garrison anner,rs
bleak,
No evacuation is possible so long as enemy fire
denies the French the use of the airfields.
The danger of epidemics is worrying the
French high command, in view of the thousands of unburied corpses.
the Viet Minh
will prolong its siege, contrary to the hopes of the French high com-
mand that the enemy will withdraw fully after a bloody setback. If
the enemy does maintain the siege, the only means of rescuing the
garrison would be by sending in a major French relief column from
northern Laos.
Comment: There is every indication that
the Viet Minh will continue its frontal assaults on Dien Bien Phu; if
these fail, the enemy high command will probably attempt to reduce
the garrison by attritional warfare.
General Navarre has expressed the belief
that the battle will continue until mid-,Tune.
2. Laniel reported threatening to withdraw support of Vietnamese
eia-Todence:
ccording to a member of Bao Dal's
ntourage, French premier Laniel has
ritten Vietnamese premier Buu Loc
arning that if the Vietnamese do not
ea up army recruitment and settle their internal political dif-
ferences, France may see no justification for continuing its efforts
to guarantee the independence of Vietnam.
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Comment: As on previous occasions,
France may be using the threat of withdrawal to force the Vietnamese
to modify their demand for independence in the current negotiations in
Paris.
The French government may also be pre-
paring the way for efforts to end the war by means unpalatable to the
Vietnamese, such as negotiations with the Viet Minh or a cease-fire.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on possibility of more British troops going to Jordan:
King Hussain's recent statement to American
reporters that negotiations are under way
with Britain to bring "substantially more
British troops to Jordan" confirms rumors
that the Jordanian government, unable to obtain sufficient Arab League
funds for its National Guard, wants additional British military support.
London has made no statement on this matter, but an antiaircraft regi-
ment arrived in Amman from the Suez base on 31 March, bringing total
British strength in Jordan to approximately 1,300.
Officials in Amman believe the presence of
British troops would have a restraining influence on Israel and also
benefit Jordan's economy. A substantial increase in the number of
British troops there would, however, be strenuously objected to by
Israel and by extreme elements generally in the Arab states.
4. Comment on resignation of Libyan cabinet:
The resignation of the Libyan cabinet on
8 April focuses attention on the internal
conflict in Libya, and on King Idriss'
attempts at autocratic rule. Growing
opposition to palace interference in pro-
vincial affairs in Tripolitania, Libya's
wealthiest and most populous province,
directly threatens to break up the country.
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14,50.
The cabinet resignation followed a series
of maneuvers involving Idriss and the Tripolitanian provincial assembly
which culminated in Idriss' refusal to accept a 5 April Supreme Court
decision.
The premier designate, Mustafa Ben Halim,
a 34-year-old Cyrenaican, is closely identified with the palace clique
and, accordingly, is likely to be subservient to the king's wishes. Minis-
ter Villard believes the cabinet crisis will further delay negotiations for
an American air base agreement, which began more than two years ago.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Defense agreement with Iceland seen jeopardized:
The American minister in Reykjavik reports
that unless Iceland is assured that the American
general contractor there will be withdrawn as
soon as feasible, the present negotiations will
be endangered and even the 1951 defense agreement itself might be
jeopardized.
Comment: Following Iceland's request last
December, negotiations for changes in the implementation of the 1951
agreement were initiated in February. The Icelanders want to obtain a
greater share in defense construction and to reduce contacts between the
local population and the more than 4,000 military and civilian Americans
on the island.
The Icelandic foreign minister plans to make
a statement on the agreement before parliament adjourns on 14 April.
A generalized statement failing to announce significant progress in the
negotiations would hardly satisfy the extreme nationalists and could lead
to stronger demands for the government to take a firmer stand or even
abrogate the agreement. The government could conceivably fall on this
Issue,
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