CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02870935
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 14, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO P9
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _Zi0-0-9-
HR 70-2
DATE: 2.4/WZ,9__ REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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/
14 April 1954
3.5(c)
uoPY No. 76 3.3(h)(2)
./4
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Bohlen notes Soviet concern over American statements on Indochina
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Two Vietnamese battalions mutiny in southern Annam (page 3).
3. Viet Minh reported planning increased activity in Cambodia (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on alleged plans for Afghan-Pakistani confederation (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
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SOVIET UNION
1. Bohlen notes Soviet concern over American statements on Indochina:
Ambassador Bohlen reports that the recent
indications of the firmness of American
policy regarding Indochina have produced
the "characteristic uncertainty" whicb Moscow
displays when opposed with real deterthination. He finds that the Soviet
press has contained "a distinct note of concern and even disarray" over
Indochina developments. Pravda's charge that American efforts to pro-
voke Chinese intervention in Indochina have failed--judged on the basis
of past reactions--reflects the Soviet government's serious concern at
being drawn into a situation which it wishes to avoid.
Bohlen doubts that the Soviet leaders are
willing or even able to force China to abandon Ho Chi Minh, as they
forced the Satellites to abandon the Greek guerrillas in 1948. He be-
lieves, however, that a demonstration of Western unity would enhance
any possibility that may exist of an acceptable solution in Indochina.
Comment: Pravda has avoided any hint of
possible Communist reaction to greater American participation in the
Indochina war except to say that a "repetition of the Korean variant"
will end in "defeat for the aggressors." Moscow's attitude of caution
and uncertainty was also evident in Pravda's remark that international
reaction to Dulles' proposal shows that it is impossible even to think
of submitting the question of intervention in Indochina to the United
Nations.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Two Vietnamese battalions mutiny in southern Anna=
a Vietnamese army light bat-
talion, stationed on the southern Annam
coast, had mutinied. In another battalion,
the officers were said to have lost their
authority and the unit had refused to carry out the mission assianed
to it.
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Nor
The comander attributed the incidents to
fear among the troops from southern Vietnam that they would be kept
away from their home districts, contrary to promises made when they
enlisted.
Comment: The 55 light battalions in the
Vietnamese army were organized under time pressure in 1953. Those
which have been committed to battle, largely at the insistence of
Vietnamese chief of staff Hinh, have generally performed poorly.
Present plans for the enlargement of the Vietnamese army call for
66 more of these light units. No increase is planned in the 66 con-
ventional battalions.
3. Viet Minh reported planning increased activity in Cambodia:
The Viet Minh command has ordered the
development of bases and building up of
guerrilla units along the Mekong River in
northern Cambodia,
The enemy aim is to harass French lines
of communication into Laos and to prepare bases for future operations
In central Cambodia. (See map, p. 5,)
this
information suggests that the Viet Minh's current incursion into Cam-
bodia is not merely a hit-and-run affair, but rather a move to extend
its active military operations to all areas of Indochina and to buttress
the position of pro-Viet Minh elements in Cambodia.
Comment: The two invading Viet Minh
battalions were last reported moving in the direction of the Mekong
River town of Stung Treng, and two more battalions now in southern
Laos may be en route to join them. French-Cambodian units are
attempting to counter this threat with reinforcement of Stung Treng
and the deployment southward of several battalions from Laos.
4
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on alleged plans for Afghan-Pakistani confederation:
Press reports of secret negotiations
for a "confederation" of Afghanistan
and Pakistan apparently originate in
the efforts of the Pakistani ambassador to Kabul, Colonel Shah,
to promote a settlement of the seven-year-old Pushtoonistan
dispute between the two countries, as well as from rumors of
Afghan interest in the Turkish-Pakistani defense agreement.
Afghanistan has intimated that it might
be willing to enter into a pact similar to the Turkish-Pakistani
agreement if the Pushtoonistan dispute were settled, and the
Afghans appear more seriously interested in settling this problem
than at any time in the past,
these developments are extremely unlikely under
present conditions.
Moscow, whose broadcasts quickly
seized on the first press story of the "confederation" project, may
use the rumors to increase the pressure it is reportedly exerting to
get the Afghans to accept more Soviet technical and possibly military
aid. The Soviet-Afghan treaty of 1931, still in force, prohibits
Afghanistan from entering any political or military alliance or agree-
ment "which might be directed" against the USSR.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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