CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02870936
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 15, 1954

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cia
15 April 1954
Copy No. 16
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
L, DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _4'009
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:3462/7S REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
2.
British charg�t Peiping speculates on Chinese Communist position
at Geneva (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French expect major attacks at Dien Bien Phu next week (page 4).
4. Burmese War Office claims proof of American involvement with
insurgents (page 5).
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
5. Readjustment in Australian defense policy announced (page 5).
NEA:R EAST - AFRICA
6, Ambassador Henderson sees Tehran calm as oil talks begin (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
Chilean president may attempt to rule as dictator (page 6).
10. Costa Rica threatens appeal to OAS in dispute with Nicaragua (page 8).
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GENERAL
1.
2. British charg�t Peiping speculates on Chinese Communist position at
Geneva:
The British charg�t Peiping believes the
Chinese Communists at Geneva will put forth
a unification proposal for Korea similar to
t he Soviet plan for Germany: withdrawal of
foreign troops, establishment of a coalition
general elections conducted by that government.
The charg�hinks the Chinese will not with-
draw their support of the Viet Minh in Indochina and are probably willing
to increase their aid considerably if necessary to prevent a Viet Minh
defeat.
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Comment! Soviet statements since the
Berlin foreign ministers' conference have suggested that the Com-
munist position on the Korean question will resemble the Soviet stand
on Germany. It is uncertain whether the Communists are willing to
reach a more limited agreement on troop withdrawal alone.
Current comments from Moscow and
Peiping suggest that the Communists' position on Indochina will be
affected by their judgment as to the determination and unity of the
West in countering Chinese aid to the Viet Minh.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French expect major attacks at Dien Bien Phu next week:
French intelligence in Saigon anticipates
a third round of major Viet Minh assaults
at Dien Bien Phu on 22 or 23 April, before
the Geneva conference, according to Am-
bassador Heath in Saigon. It is believed
the enemy has already replaced his casual-
ties, will probably be able to bring in still
more reinforcements, and is now building
up his artillery and ammunition supply.
The consulate in Hanoi states that French
headquarters there ascertained only on 10 April that a position in
Dominique was abandoned by a Thai battalion during the 30-31 March
attacks. As of 13 April, this position had not been retaken by the
French.
Comment: Viet Minh gains during the
second phase of the battle thus total four of the five positions in
strong point Dominique and one of the six in Huguette.
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4. Burmese War Office claims proof of American involvement with
insurgents:
The American embassy in Rangoon reports
that the Burmese War Office has obtained
captured documents and photographs which
it regards as proof that American military
personnel in Thailand are involved in arming the Karen and Mon in-
surgents in southeastern Burma. The War Office is also convinced,
as the result of interrogations of local villagers, that American per-
sonnel have freely crossed the border from Thailand during the past
ten months and made contact with insurgent leaders.
Some of the documents and photographs
have been leaked to the press, but they have not yet been published.
Comment: The Burmese government has
suspected the United States and the British of covertly supporting the
Karen insurgents since early 1951. Public disclosure of the War Office's
"proof" would again damage American prestige in Burma, which has been
slowly rising as a result of the partial evacuation of Chinese Nationalist
guerrillas.
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
5. Readjustment in Australian defense policy announced:
The Australian defense minister announced
on 11 April that the RAAF will become the
country's major defensive arm and that the
size and cost of the regular ground force
will be reviewed. He indicated, however,
uratias present commitments in Korea would prevent a large
reduction in the army. The defense minister noted that the trend
overseas confirmed the increasing importance of air power.
The American army attach�omments that
the regular army and the naval air arm will probably be cut in the next
defense budget. He believes the timing of the defense minister's announce-
ment was made with an eye on next month's parliamentary election.
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Comment: A Labor victory next month
would probably result in a greater reduction of the defense budget
than the present government is planning. Labor spokesmen are in
accord, however, with greater stress on air power.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Ambassador Henderson sees Tehran calm as oil talks begin:
The Iranian political scene is relatively
stable as oil negotiations get under way
and as parliament begins to organize,
according to Ambassador Henderson in
ran, me reiatiosMp between Prime Minister Zahedi and the
shah seems good, despite frequent minor strains, and they both
apparently realize they must stick together at least until an oil
agreement is approved by parliament.
There are grounds for hope that an agree-
ment can be signed and approved without precipitating a major political
controversy, even though Tudeh and Nationalist elements can be expected
to make strong attempts to sabotage a final agreement. A more serious
threat to the Zahedi government, however, may come from right-wing
politicians who are only waiting until responsibility for a settlement is
firmly fixed on Zahedi to make their bids for power.
Comment: Consortium and Iranian repre-
sentatives held their first meeting in Tehran on 14 April. The Ameri-
can member presented the consortium's basic proposal and meetings
were adjourned until 17 April.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Chilean president may attempt to rule as dictator:
President Ibanez of Chile is "seeking a
pretext to close congress" in order to
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govern as a dictator with a military cabinet. General Abdon Parra,
present minister of defense, is said to be supporting the president,
although he would prefer him to name a military junta. It is reported
that the armed forces are strongly with Ibanez.
Comment: Ibanez lacks majority support
in either house of the legislature, and his domestic policies have been
unsatisfactory compromises which have failed to solve Chile's worsen-
ing economic crisis.
8.
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10. Costa Rica threatens appeal to OAS in dispute with Nicaragua:
Costa Rican foreign minister :Esquivel
informed Ambassador Hill on 13 April
that his government was demanding re-
traction of the unofficial Nicaraguan charges,
ascribed o President Somoza, that high Costa Rican officials were in-
volved in the recent plot against Somoza and that Costa Rica is a center
of Communism. Esquivel stated that if Nicaragua did not comply by
midnight, his government would ask the Organization of American States
to investigate the dispute.
The American embassy believes that this
action "will create a grave situation."
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Comment: Relations between the two
countries have been severely strained since the 3 April assassination
attempt against Somoza by persons who entered Nicaragua from Costa
Rica. An appeal to the OAS would appear designed to seize the initiative
from Nicaragua and to clear Costa Rica of the broad and apparently
unfounded charges.
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