CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/07/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02872229
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 7, 1953

:ved
US OFFICIALS ONLY
0
/1/1713/17,4
7 July 1953
Copy No. 67
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUR
ET
INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
/ Britain may propose US sponsorship of special UN session
if Rhee talks fail (page 3).
Vyshinsky re-emphasizes desirability of Korean armistice
(page 4).
4.
5.
7.
8. Sudanese leader protests Egyptian activities in Sudan (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
Comment on Hungarian government reorganization (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
'41elest German government believes election outcome hinges on
Soviet unity action (page 8).
FAR EAST
China improves weather-reporting service (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
Comment on the prospects of a settlement in Kashmir (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2
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1,
GENERAL
3.
2. Britain may propose US sponsorship of special UN session if Rhee
talks fail:
3(h)(2)
Britain may propose that the United States 3.3(h)(2)
call for a special session of the UN General
Assembly if the negotiations with Syngman
Rhee fail to progress this week. The Ameri-
can embassy in London states that Acting Foreign Secretary Salisbury
believes American sponsorship of a special session would be preferable
to reluctant American concurrence under pressure from other nations.
Comment: While British government spokes-
men have recently expressed full support for American leadership in
Korea, suspicion has increased that the United States cannot be relied
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on to refrain from new and drastic moves. London may therefore now
want a reaffirmation of American support for the announced UN objec-
tives in Korea and for the present armistice terms.
The British also apparently believe that such
a reaffirmation by the General Assembly as a whole would intensify
the moral and political pressure upon Rhee
3. Vyshinsky re-emphasizes desirability of Korean armistice:
4.
Vyshinsky told Ambassador Bohlen during the 3.3(h)(2)
4 July embassy reception that it was of the
greatest importance that an armistice be con-
cluded. He stated that the Soviet leaders
"found it difficult to understand why the US permitted Syngman Rhee
to release the prisoners." While displaying cynicism toward Bohlen's
explanation that the United States does not control the South Korean
government, Vyshinsky nevertheless expressed his conviction that
the difficulties with Rhee would be overcome.
Comment: These remarks, together with
the earlier statements of Vvshinskv and Soviet ambassador Kuznetsov
suggest that Moscow is 3.3(h)(2)
interested in obtaining a firm guarantee that either Rhee will respect
a truce or the US will be able to enforce the truce.
Vyshinsky's statements imply that Moscow
will support a compromise settlement of the prisoner issue. This
was also indicated by Kuznetsov's statement that the Chinese demand
that all non-repatriates be recaptured should not be taken literally.
FAR EAST
RET
3.3
(h)(2)
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5. China improves weather-reporting service:
The number of radiosonde or high-altitude
weather reporting stations in Communist
China was recently expanded from five to
eight. The new ones, the first to be estab-
lished in southern China, are at Hankow,
Nanning and Foochow, They have been ob-
served reporting heights up to 53,000 feet.
Comment: Ground weather reporting sta-
tions have also increased in Communist China in the past few years,
from about 50 in 1948 to 300 at present. China probably now has a
weather service adequate to meet the flight requirements of its grow-
ing military and civil air fleets.
SOUTH ASIA
3
.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
6, Comment on the prospects of a settlement in Kashmir;
Despite the presence in India of top Kashmiri
officials, the prospect of talks between the Indian and Pakistani prime
ministers late in July, and the conciliatory statements being made by
the leaders of both countries, past experience has demonstrated the
fallacy of expecting India to make concessions acceptable to Pakistan
for settlement of the Kashmir question.
Partition of Kashmir along the present Indo-
Pakistani occupation lines and the establishment of the Vale as an
Independent or semi-independent area, whose defenses and communi-
cations would be guaranteed by both India and Pakistan, would be
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unlikely to lead to political stability. Kashmiri premier Sheikh
Abdullah would oppose any diminution of his sphere of influence
and would resist any move completely to surround the Vale with
Indian and Pakistani territory.
Neither India nor Pakistan, both of which
are aware of the opportunistic and pro-Communist leanings of the
Abdullah government, would consider an independent Vale of Kashmir
to bp a good security risk.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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8. Sudanese leader protests Egyptian activities in Sudan:
Comment: The rise in Cairo of Colonel Nasr
and Major Salam may bring a strengthened campaign for_ closer ties to
the Sudan. This would further irritate Anglo-Egyptian relations and
could lead to local disturbances.
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on Hungarian government reorganization:
The sweeping reorganization of the government
and Communist Party in Hungary, accompanied by the announced intent
of the new regime to slow down the tempo of socialization and relax past
harsh coercive policies, is unparalleled in the Satellites.
While these concessions can be partly explained
by critical food shortages and growing popular discontent, they may also
be indicative of a sharp change in Soviet tactics throughout the area.
Failure of the Hungarian parliament to meet on 17 june as prescribed by
the constitution suggests that the changes were being formulated prior to
the outbreak of the East German riots.
Recent concessions to Rumanian and Albanian
peasants may be preparatory to similar changes in those countries.
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WESTERN EUROPE
10. West German government believes election outcome hinges on Soviet
unity action:
West German government leaders believe 3.3(h)(2)
that the coalition parties will win the September
national elections without difficulty, but that any
"sweeping" Soviet unity proposals would com-
pletely alter this prospect. According to American officials in Bonn,
these leaders anticipate that in the event of such Soviet proposals, the
United States would help the Adenauer government by immediately imple-
menting parts of the contractual agreement, demanding the release of
German prisoners of war held by the Soviet Union, and holding joint
Allied-German consultations on German unity.
Comment: An opinion poll in early June
showed the popularity of Adenauer and his party at an unprecedented
high, but also indicated that over 38 percent of the electorate had not
yet decided how to vote in the September elections. Any government
opposition to a Soviet proposal for free all-German elections under
neutral supervision would likely alienate many of the undecided voters.
The West German press has tended to become
critical of the government's reluctance to press the Allies for four-power
talks,
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