CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/03/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02874597
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: March 17, 1958

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17 March 1958
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CENTRAL
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INTELLIGENCE
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17 MARCH 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet atomic explosion occurred on
15 March;
Chinese Communist withdrawals from
North Korea probably in progress.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia - Initial success of dissident
coup against government forces at
Medan, North Sumatra, reported.
Nasir confidants, citing reports of
trouble in Saudi Arabia, believe Nasir
will press home his advantage against
King Saud.
Egyptians concerned over Yemen, fear-
ing Saud may overthrow Imam or Imam
may overreach himself against Aden.
Palestinian refugees interpret creation
of Gaza council as first step toward
0 restoration of Arab Palestine.
Iceland premier may be sounding out
USSR for loan.
TOP SECRET
Haiti - Ouster of army chief of staff
removes immediate threat to president.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
17 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel -
ligence Committee statement of 1730 hours, 15 March:
An explosion has been reported by acoustic
components of the Atomic Energy Detection System
as having occurred at about 0930 GMT (0430 EST)
on 15 March 1958, in the vicinity of �Semipalatinsk
in the USSR.
Communist China - Korea: The Chinese Communists
have announced that they began withdrawing troops from
Korea on 15 March and that six divisions will be pulled out
by 30 April.
its subordinate
armies, the 21st and 54th, will be the first to leave. A re-
deployment of North Korean Army units, possibly to fill
positions vacated by the Chinese forces, has been indicated
(Page 1)
II, ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia: Anti-Djakarta military elements in the Medan area
of North Sumatra apparently have achieved an initial success in
their coup attempt against the central government command
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them, The Medan radio has announced an agreement be-
tween the local air force commander and the dissident forces
that Medan airfield will no longer be used by aircraft "for
the purpose of civil war." (Page 2)
(Map)
Nasir vs Saud: Cairo has received unconfirmed reports
of trouble in Saudi Arabia which, although based on rumor,
will probably reinforce Nasir's apparent belief that he has
Saud on the run. Nasir has rebuffed the Imam of Yemen's
suggestion that a reconciliation with Saud should be effected,
and Cairo is making a strong formal protest against an anti-
Egyptian broadcast by the Saudi radio.
Col. Sarraj is reported to have said Nasir intends
to press home his advantage and 111-a kp nvpr" Smdi Arth4,
Yemen: An unusually high degree of apprehension and
confusion apparently exists in Yemeni government circles,
partly because of the Saud-Nasir split and partly because of
lack of coordination between the Imam and Crown Prince
Badr, The Imam's complaints to King Saud of Saudi inter-
ference in Yemen have been vehemently denied by Saud, but
at the same time Egyptian representatives in Yemen fear
that a Saudi-provoked crisis is imminent. An Egyptian
emissary is being sent to try to "explain" the situation to
the Imam. (Page 4)
Gaza Strip: Celebrations accompanying the announcement
of 15 March that a new Gaza legislative council has been es-
tablished indicate a popular belief among the refugees that
this is the first step toward a 'rebirth. of Arab Palestine.
Fedayeen terrorists are reported being organized in the strip
to cross Israel for operations in Jordan, and Nasir may visit
the strip in person in the near future. These developments
could in turn produce new border incidents with Israel which
would involve the UNEF troops in Gaza, as well as a possible
outbreak of antigovernment agitation in Wpst .Tordan
17 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF
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III, THE WEST
Iceland: Prime Minister Jonasson appears to be sound-
ing out the USSR regarding a loan. Jonassont coalition of
Progressives, Social Democrats: and the Communist-front
0-42__ Labor Alliance, which is under increasing political strain,
is seeking to continue its ambitious economic development
program without resorting to currency devaluation and other
drastic measures. (Page 5)
Haiti: President Duvalier's ouster of Army Chief of
Staff Kebreau, who had been the real power behind the gov-
ernment even after Duvalier's inauguration last October,
Pe� removes an anti-US influence and the chief immediate threat
to the President'S, own position. Duvaliert purge of pro-
Kabreau officers may leave him vulnerable to plotting by
the political opposition. (Page 6)
17 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Chinese Begin Troop Withdrawal From North Korea
Less than a month after the joint Sino -Korean announce-
ment declaring that all Chinese Communist troops in Korea
would be withdrawn by the end of 1958, the first gropp began
departing on 15 March. The withdrawal of the approximately
300,000 Chinese troops--five armies--is to be carried out
in three stages. The first stage, involving six divisions--
80,000 troops--is to be completed by 30 April.
this headquarters
element and its two subordinate armies, the 21st and the 54th,
may constitute the group which began withdrawing on 15 March.
Neither the 21st nor 54th army occupies a position along the
Demilitarized Zone.
The withdrawal of the Chinese "volunteers" will reduce
Communist troop strength in Korea by about 50 percent. De-
spite this reduction in manpower, however, Communist mili-
tary capabilities in Korea will not be substantially affected.
The North Korean Army is superior to the South Korean Army
in firepower and heavy weapons capability; in addition, North
Korea possesses an air force of 450 jet fighters and 75 jet
light bombers compared to South Korea's poorly equipped 0,ir
force of only 80 jet fighters in tactical units.
Chinese Communist troops deployed in Manchuria, only
250 miles from the Demilitarized Zone, are in a position to
reinforce the North Korean Army in a few days. In addition
to the units now in Korea, which may be redeployed to Man-
churia in the withdrawal, Communist China is able to move
into Korea an additional 250,000 troops now located in North
and Northeast China.
-rap-SECRET
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Now
II, ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia
Dissident military elements in North Sumatra are
creating fresh problems for Djakarta, whose limited re-
sources are probably already taxed by efforts against the
Central Sumatran and North Celebes revolutionary move-
ments. The city of Medan, which has been the major
stronghold of the central government on Sumatra, is at
least temporarily in anti-Djakarta hands, and these dis-
sidents can be expected to attempt to widen their area of
control.
With the neutralization of the Medan airfield, Djakarta
is denied an important air base for operations against the
Central Sumatran revolutionary government. The airfield
is reliably described as damaged, probably beyond use, by
mortar fire. In addition, a joint communiqu�f the dissident
commander and the air base commander, broadcast by the
Medan radio. on 16 March, announced that the airfield would
hereafter "not be used for the landing of airplanes for the
purpose of civil war."
Radio Bukittinggi, in Central Sumatra, has quoted the
Medan group as demanding that President Sukarno order a
cessation of all military operations against Central Sumatra
and North Celebes. Sukarno was also called on to take "posi-
tive steps" to negotiate a peaceful settlement there.
The amount, if any, of material assistance the Medan dis-
sidents can extend to Central Sumatra remains to be deter-
mined. Their action, however, could encourage other waver-
ing areas to declare some measure of support for the dissi-
dents and might result in some lessening of the military threat
against Central Sumatra. The Padang dissidents claim to have
obtained plans of army chief Nasution to divert troops sched-
uled for use in Central Sumatra to Medan.
Meanwhile, the Central Sumatran regime has issued its
strongegt condemnationof Sukarno to date branding him a war
criminal who should be hanged.
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The Nasir-Saud Disptite
A recent reported statement by Col. Sarraj, to the
effect that Nasir will now move to "take over" Saudi Arabia
and suggesting that the United Arab Republic might national-
ize oil fields and refineries is probably indicative of the
present state of mind of Nasir's high-level followers, al-
though not necessarily of the Egyptian leader's actual plans.
Nasir, who seems to make his tactical moves according to
his sense of the developing situation rather than on the basis
of a predetermined plan, is likely to be encouraged to con-
tinue his present campaign, however, by rumors of trouble
in Saudi Arabia which are being reported in volume by the
Egyptian Embassy in Jidda.
The Egyptians have heard, for example, that Saud is
"entrenched" ,in his palace in Riyadh surrounded by tanks,
that 40 Saudi princes have been arrested and Crown Prince
Faysal confined to his house, and that a Saudi family coun-
cil has decided that either Saud should abdicate or Faysal
and his supporters resign from their offices. These reports
are wholly unconfirmed, but they reflect the uncertainties
of the atmosphere and the extra security precautions being
taken in Saudi Arabia at this time.
Nasir's unyielding attitude toward Saud is indicated by
Nasir's rejection of a plea from the Imam of Yemen urging
him to "remedy" differences with the King. A similar
plea to Nasir has been made by a representative of the
Omani rebels, who, like the Yemenis, fear the pressure
Saud can still exert on them.
In line with this attitude, the Egyptian charg�n Jidda
was instructed on 15 March to deliver a strong protest
against an announcement by Mecca radio that demonstrators
were besieging the Egyptian Embassy there. Cairo claims
this broadcast was an incitement, and that the Saudis will
be responsible for "all the consequences."
- TOP SECRET
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ftpe Now
Developments in Yemen
Cairo on 15 March passed to Egyptian officials in Syria informa-
tion from the Yemeni capital of Sana that the situation there is "ap-
proaching a crisis" because "the reactionaries, the Saudis, and their
well-meaning helpers have reacted in the worst possible way," pre-
sumably to the announcement of Yemen's affiliation with Egypt and
Syria. Sana noted that the Saudi minister to Yemen
was flying to see the Imam, who is in his alternate capital of Taiz.
It urged the Cairo authorities to contact Yemeni Crown Prince Badr,
now in Cairo, to "discuss the plot against him and against the union."
The Egyptian alarm may be the result of measures the local
Yemeni authorities took, possibly without the Imam's approval, after
the Saudi Embassy had complained about alleged Egyptian-inspired
demonstrations in Sana. On his side, King Saud
swore "by the mightiest marvels of Allah
and his:lofty attributes" that he had not intervened in Yemen as the Imam
had complained. Saud
might act against the Imam if the latter started a propaganda campaign
like that launched against Saud by Nasir.
Crown Prince Bades main
concern is not King Saud's actions, but that the Imam, who he says
looks at "the local picture alone," will embroil the new union with
the British by attempting to blow up the Aden oil refinery. Badr is
particularly alarmed over this possibility because, according to him,
Yemen's Soviet bloc arms are all stored in the desert near Hodeide,
Yemen's principal seaport, and could easily be destroyed by a British
air raid.
The basis of Bades concern are Imam asking
that Egypt send quickly 50 time bOmbs for a "major action" against-
Aden and that the Egyptians send two "cruisers" to patrol the Aden
Strait. The Imam earlier also told Badr to point out to Nasir "in a
nice way" that Nasir has not mentioned Yemen's claims to the Aden
Protectorate "in a single utterance in his ardent- and zealous speeches."
Nasir has refused to send naval aid to the Imam, but has agreed
that a high-level Egyptian emissary will go to Yemen to "explain the
situation" to the Imam and to persuade him to give Badr an opportunity
to exercise more authority.
4012-SEGRLET
17 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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III. THE WEST
Icelandic Request for Soviet Loan Reported
Icelandic Prime Minister Jonasson
asked on 11 March for loan nego-
tiations with the USSR and to have received a reply from the
Soviet Embassy in Reykjavik the next day proposing an early
discussion in Moscow with East German representatives
present. The East German reference suggests that the
talks would center on the USSR's offer of June 1957 to fi-
nance Iceland's $3,250,000 purchase of East German fishing
vessels. Only last month Iceland requested hard currency
from the Soviet Union to be used in part payment for the
vessels.
The negotiations might, however, have a much wider
scope. Last year the USSR offered economic assistance
worth $25,000,000,but Iceland obtained $7,000,000 from the
United States and West Germany and did not pursue the So-
viet offer.
Jonasson's coalition of Progressives, Social Democrats,
and the Communist-front Labor Alliance is engaged in an
ambitious development program and without further foreign
aid will have to take severe economic measures, including
a drastic currency devaluation. The government agreed
when it accepted Western aid last fall that such reforms
were necessary, that the Labor Alliance has been unwilling
to accept devaluation, and Jonasson fears to risk the fall
of his cabinet, The gains registered by the opposition Con�
-
servatives in the January municipal elections showed public
opinion to be running against his government.
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4.31.:A.,/
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The Changed Political Outlook in Haiti
The unexpected ouster on 12 March of Haitian Army
Chief of Staff Kebreau, who had long been plotting against
President Duvalier, eliminated the most immediate threat
to the government and should
enable Duvalier to exercise
his authority as head of the government for the first time.
Kebreau, who was the real power behind the Haitian Govern-
ment even after Duvalier was inaugurated last October, had
been largely responsible for the deterioration of Haiti's re-
lations with the United States and had hindered Duvalier's
efforts to improve them.
The army has made no effort to resist Kebreaut ouster,
but Duvalier's subsequent purge of pro-Kebreau officers has
been described as having weakened
and disorganized the army, which has traditionally been the
most powerful element in Haitian politics. Although Brig.
Gen. Maurice Flambert, the new chief of staff, is a strong
supporter of Duvalier, the extent of the President's influence
in the army is open to question.
With the army threatened by possible disunity and lack-
ing a strong leader, Duvalier may now be more vulnerable to
antigovernment plotting loy the political opposition. Despite
his recent efforts to curry favor with opposition leaders,
there is no indication he has achieved a working agreement
with them. The President's ineffectiveness in dealing with
Haiti's economic and social problems has resulted in a loss
of support from his own followers as well as a decline in his
prestige and popularity. Unless Duvalier can show himself
a stronger and more effective leader than he has in the past,
there may be a resurgence of political instability.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
17 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
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Approved
Soviet nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel -
ligence committee statement of 1730 hours, 15 March:
An explosion has been reported by acoustic
components of the Atomic Energy Detection System
as having occurred at about 0930 GMT (0430 EST)
on 15 March 1958, in the vicinity of Semipalatinsk
in the USSR.
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,
Communist China - Korea:
have announced that -t-hy-17--)eg�a-n
Korea on 15 March and that si
by 30 April. (CONFIDENTIA
ruary of the radio terminal se
20th Army Group in Korea ma
armies, the 21st and 54th, wi
deployment of North Korean
positions vacated b the Chin
age 1)
Yemen An-
� unusually high degree of apprehension and
Cumusion apparently exists in Yemeni Government circles,
partly because of the Saud-Nasir split and partly because of
lack of coordination between the Imam and Crown Prince
Badr, The Imam's complaints to King Saud of Saudi inter-
ference in Yemen have been vehemently denied by Saud, but
at the same time Egyptian representatives in Yemen fear
that a Saudi-provoked crisis is imminent. An Egyptian
emissary is being sent to try to "explain" the situation to
the Imam. (Page 4)
The Chinese Communists
ithdrawing troops from
divisions will be pulled out
The silence since 8 Feb-
ving the Chinese Communist
indicate that its subordinate
1 be the first to leave. A re-
rmy units, possibly to fill
se forces has been indicated
TOP SECRET
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