SAIGON [SANITIZED] WINTER-SPRING CAMPAIGN COALITION GOVERNMENT - 1967/11/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Tet Declassified
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02954843
• Document Creation Date: July 27, 2018

Approved for Release: 2018/06/28 CO2954843
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DIRECTOR.
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SECTION .ONE� OF THREE..
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?LEA Se:PASS FOLLOWING MESBA.GE. TO WALT ROSTOV, WHITE }!OUSE.
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FROM AMBASSADOR LOCKE.
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U.S. GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATRON. ,
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DATES 2 NOVEMBER 190
FROM'S SA ICON
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iHE FOLLOWING IS A REVIEW OF AVAILABLE DOCUMENTATION
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WI THE W INTERE'SPR IN G CAMPAIGN,' COAL'? ISN GOVERNMENT,
NE GOT IAT FRONT'S NEW PROGRAM. IT � IS CLEAR THAT
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MUCH OF WHAT THE tow( DIRECTS IN j HE :9 �pumps carp Is.
'PAR BEYOND HIS REALISTIC: CAPABILJT isES� WE ARE .UNDER TAKING. A .40
;741DY WHICH WILL. EVALUATE THIS MATERIAL IN .TfrIE LIGHT OF
CURRENT AND RECENT ENEMY MI4J.ITARY . ACT ION AND. OTHER; PERTINENT
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EV 144CE� :THIS STUDY WILL. BE FORWARD WTHLN, TWO WEENS �
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; BASED ON. A NUMBER � OF INDICATORS, INCLUDING CAPTURED
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DOCrENTS, PRISONER NTERR 0 GAT IONS AN orFzCIA. �STATEMENTS BY
� y;ETNAteA porkei.s.,.T.LEADER.Sis.p.' APPEARS TilAT COMMUNIST STRATEGY
TOWARD VIETNAM' WAR. 4S. IN S.TATE OF FLUX* IT IS to EARLY,
.HOWEVER, . TO DETERMINE WITH PRECISION WHAT IS IN TRAIN. OVER
, PAST .THREE MONTHS,' NUM.B. ER OF' I PORTANT THEMES HAVE EMERGED,
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THE MOST IMMEDIATE, ALTHOUGH NOT F IR ST, IS WINTER.:SPR I NG
CAMPAIGN NOW B. BING MINIUM VIET CON 0 CVO � THIS CAMPAIN
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PAGE TWO SAIGON SAIGON siifiEt. � 01(101
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IS BEING DESCRIBED *5 THF DECISIVE.PHASS OF WAR, AND JCIDG/NG
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FRO4 BATTLES OF pe ppm AND OAK TO, VC SEEM TO BE MAKING AU
Oift 'parodic-1160�46i. oF-ii*is,'Ta4NFLICT AbuiAT ON ALLIED
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FORCES. AT SAME TIME, ybfHAyE.ustm TO STRESS FORMATION 07
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COALITION GOVER4MENT# CAPTURED DOCUMENTS ARE REPLETE .WITH SUCH
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REFEONV'S' AO NEW pnoaRkl*oi THE 'NATIONAL FRONT FOR THE'
LiipiATjay pFcppOrn 041ii0 OF64) WAS, INTER AL14,'A'CilLL Fcel
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OTHER GROUPS TO JOLOITH,FRONT IN OP?3iitiii.i-GOW::40:4E11 -*JF,
vuTuon (ow.. tpotpopigo THE SITUATION PREVAILI4a�
UNTIL AUGUST *067,-lapiksALITY Of NiGaTihTIDNs. IS NOT 'Silks
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4tJTIONED OR IF IT 15, IT IS
IN VERY HARD me cothAT.
FOLLOWING PARAGRAPHS WILLBRIEFLY'SUMACIiE.DATA WE HAVE ON
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4130VS THEMES AND CITE:THE MAJOR hiieiduas.. �
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1.IPTP7SPRING,CAMPAIGN
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;5., ACCORDING TO CAPTURED DOCUMEN,TS VC WINTER-SPRING. CAMPAIGN
(DECINNING OCTOBER .1067) IS BEING 'EXPLAINED AS .
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W;703ICAL,"'STAGE OF REVOLUTION WHICH WILL BWINS:ABOilT 114101"...
"TIANI4G IN' WAR AND "WHICH WILL Dsciqz ITgv.T1mArE . �
i6J1E. VC CITE SITUATION AS 'BEING VY FAVOiAaLE To TnEl
aECAUSZ MILITARILY ALLIES AR r BOGGED D041V IN STRATEG/CALLY,
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MUM WA TACTICALLY,. .0EFENSIVE p0Tu.13E,',IN ADDITI31,
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0.ATE!.. IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY AN)'TlAN
;M:.41a)S131 INTERNALLY.' THESE FACTOR.1 'PLUS IMPEN)INC 19:.3
ILW71033 APPARENTLY.LEAD'VC TO BELIEVE THAT CURRENT 11,..,4
ADIJYI3Li1TION WILL WANT13 END WA R BE7ORE. FALL OF OS'S.
4, vo. ALSO SEE ADVANTAGES F03 iAE:OtLVES IN SITUATI3N PREVAILIt::
IN 50,1TH VISTNAA (JN). :THEY VIEW. CUNT Vi .AS
000�PUL4-1 AND INCAPABLE OF GAINING ALLEGIANCE OF BULX 0'
POPULATION, IN EFFECT, VC TAKE HOPE FROM APPARENT ;)/Vi.11V.,..
FACTWq.dITHIN GVN,.ESPECIALL.Y LATENT REV.ALRY ;ETwEr..N IHIZU
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t, ��.4)) EXISTENCE OF VARIOuS.ANTI-uOVEM1N7 CAMPS' SUCA
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e,tLITA3T BUDDHISTS AND DISAPPOINTED ).1AIDIWZ$i L-EFT IN.
,JAKIL oF SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS, FROM THI5 ANALGAM OF i4SPAaA1::.
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CAROUP51 VL1 APPARENTLY EXPECT TO SEE AN;) INCREASINC A40017 IPT
. DISSFv5./M :�,90.TOT1OIL IN SOUTH VIETNAVESE SOCIZTY :NICE
CAN EOL011, IF NOT LEAD, IN COUNTRYSIDE, VC }AVEASI!)10u3LY
ro DISRUPT REVOLUTIONARY.ftVELOPAEu7.'
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PRO5:AM, AND APJ'AIENTLY BELIEVE THAT G41 AR1ED PORCE3 ARE
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SUPPERrI9C! FROM SERIOUS MORALE PROBLEMS AND An./NCAPADLZ OF
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ADVA4CIP3 OR PROTECTING PACIFICATIDN PROGRAM.
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A3.4:31.0 oF.THEIA ASSESSMENT, VC STATE THAT THZY CeftENTrY
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1;3SSE3SBOTH.flLUTARYD POLITICAL.. INITIAT AND AfIE IN
VER Y .FAVORAA.E_posITION% FOR. OINGING WA TO A VICTORI3u3 .
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C3NCLUIION DURING 296i. THE '14ATE0 03JZOTIVES OF THI3 CAMPAIGN
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coAviylga,.fHtkility.iftiAaLING yc, TO SAXI COMTROL',OF AL303T;ALL
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c. IN41IOATION OF:.FOLITICAL TuR:461L. AND DE10I151-4AI114.3 �
IN jJ1ES, WHICH WILL.'CuLiIINATE �GF.NEHAL �tintg11.&t"" � 313111.1,11
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FOR:JATION MY COALITION "OVER:Ili:NT BET:W An)
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ic a9ALs ARE to BE. ACHIEV.SD' THR � GO.OftGfilATO 4 ID
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OFFRNSIVE. UTILIZING ALL V. AS3.T.T3..
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AT Ti: 3AXE TI1E, H1AVY.CA3UALTIE3 A32 .TO 3E INFLICTV),
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ATTE4PT TO EXPAND LIBERATED AREA3 Y LAUV4eN .O3NrInlj3
striACKSON PACIFYGIATION. TEAMS, 40.CAL APMINISTRAT1VE PERS3XN.T,L,
LINES OF C033041CATION3 AND BEAri HEFUGEE3 A;IE 13 Z7 Zft.7;4.1'
TO 1.1T:101 TO FORMEa HOMES IN VC ARLO AND AT LEAST 75 PIT
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I4A.11.3AN.AREAS SP2CIAL ACTION.OUTS ARE,T3 IN UID5-
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TitEJAZZIVITIES Asig,To.Di.e.poanNiTP,.wip,1:114tTiox:AiyAq�
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A NATIONAL DLIMFiGil AT IC COALITION G.OVER.:IMENT.7 3):11..14A3
�OCTO;74.*R 966 THE.:AE Om:3k �REPORIS:Or :INTEREST � EN REV IVI.tirr�Or.P.1.00.3ATIC:���
naci. ATTAO6 AND GE 'NERAL A4VOLT; THEN �
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1
.BUT cullIopsol ebio..6GH, REFERENCES ON COALITION GOyERNAENT 'THEN: ..
4 su3dIDEP-7AT LOWER LEVELS. IN'OCToBER 1967t. HOwEvER, 'RASH OF
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REFERENCES TO COALITION. GOVERNMENT POLICY REAPPEARED IN
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CONNECTION. WITH '7 Hisipil 1 ca, 'PHASE" OF THE 1067-194 MIER; :
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IN,APtECH GIVEN BY .NORTH .VIETNAmESE ARM.Y (NVA) GENERAL NGVEN �
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CENTRAL. OFFICE FOR 'SOUTH VIETNAM (COSVN) CONGRESS IN APRIL*
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AUGUST.A0OUNCEMENT OF NFLSV'S "NEW,PROBRAM,*
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