CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1960/04/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02977770
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: March 17, 2020
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2020
• Publication Date: April 1, 1960

Approved for Release. 2020/03/13 CO2977770
1 April 1960
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Copy No. C 7 0
CENTRAL
I\ TELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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1 APRIL 1960
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Peiping's 1960 economic plan calls for
continued development at "big leap"
rate.
Mao 'The-tung described as "physically
robust and mentally keen" by recent
Nepalese visitors.
Mikoyan going to Baghdad on 8 April to
open Soviet exhibition; he may offer
Ir aic_io aid.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Nehru intends to maintain his past posi-
tion on border issue when talks with Chou
begin, but he is prepared to make some
concessions.
US Embassy comments on the situation
in South Africa.
III. THE WEST
OUAR minister in Panama active in push-
-US propaganda.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
1 April 1960
DAILY BRIEF
I, THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Communist China: Peiping's 1960 economic plan and
budget, presented to the opening session of the National
People's Congress, reflect the regime's conclusion that the
Chinese economy can continue to develop at "big leap" speed,
although the pace will be somewhat slower than last year's.
Industrial targets released so far seem within China's reach
this year, but those for agriculture still appear unrealistically
high. Increased attention is to be paid to agriculture during
the year, but priority is still given to heavy industry. Direct
budgetary spending on the military is to be maintained at the
same level as last year. (Page 1)
Communist China: Mao Tse-tung, whose health has some-
times been in question in recent years, seemed "physically
robust and mentally keen" in mid-March. This was the con-
clusion of a group of Nepalese officials who talked with him for
more than two hours. If he remains healthy, Mao is expected
to continue to dominate the Chinese Communist party.
USSR-Iraq: Deputy Premier Mikoyan will head a govern-
m Pni- rhalacrofinn +n Ty�nn "ri
While the os-
n tenswie purpose of the visit is to open the Soviet exhibition in
U Baghdad, the ambassador reported that Mikoyan wanted to talk
with Qasim and would be prepared "to offer any new economic
assistance." (Page 2)
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
ov
India - Communist China: ;In his talks with Chou from
19 to 25 April, Nehru reportedly will insist that Chou accept
the principle that the border between India and Tibet has al-
ready been delimited. At the outset Nehru will also demand
that Chinese troops evacuate the disputed Ladakh area of
Kashmir. He is prepared, however, to agree to the continued
presence of Chinese troops in the vicinity of the road they have
built through Ladakh. Indian officials regard the meeting as
only the first step in "several years" of negotiations over the
border disputID (Page 3)
South Africa: In commenting on the situation in South
Africa, the American Embassy in Cape Town observes that
African leaders are no longer thinking in terms of a very gradual
revolution sometime in the future, and that the urban African pop-
ulation now is willing to follow leaders calling for direct action.
In the strikes and demonstrations on 28 and 30 March, the Afri-
cans demonstrated to themselves and to the European minority
their potential for disrupting South Africa's economic and polit-
ical structure. (Page 4)
III. THE WEST
UAR-Panama: The UAR minister in Panama, Muhammad
al-Tabi, advised Cairo that he had
agreed to pay $200 monthly to an unnamed "director of the po-
litical office in the Panamanian Government," adding that the
official "is standing with us before the tide of American prop-
aganda." Al-Tabi has achieved considerable notoriety for his
anti-US propaganda activities and his contacts with rrical na-
tionalist elements in Panama.
(Page 5)
IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
(Available during the preceding week)
Sino-Soviet Air Defense Capabilities through Mid-1965.
NIE 11-3-60, 29 Mar 1960.
1 Apr 60 DAILY BRIEF
11.
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Chinese Communist Economic Planning
The 1960 economic plan and budget presented to the open-
ing session of the National People's Congress demonstrate Pei-
ping's satisfaction with the current state of the Chinese economy.
Planning chief Li Fu-chun praised the economic policies fol-
lowed in 1958 and 1959 and asserted that their success made it
"objectively certain" that the economy could continue to be
developed at "big leap" speed.
The 1960 economic plan calls for a 23-percent increase in
the total value of industrial and agricultural output, as com-
pared with the 31-percent increase claimed for ia.st year. Steel
output is to rise to 18,400,000 tons during the year, as against
13,300,000 tons last year. This level of steel production and
goals for the pig-iron industry could be achieved, but only by
expanding the output of small-scale Dirnaces, which' turn out a
product of limited utility.
On the other hand, the levels of production programed for
agriculture again are beyond reach. Peiping, almost certain-
ly incorrectly, claimed a 10-percent increase in grain and
cotton .output in 1959, despite widespread and damaging drought.
The 1960 program calls for a 10-percent increase over the exag-
gerated 1959 claim.
The 1960 plan and budget devote only a small increase in
resources to speeding up the development of agriculture. In-
vestment in new construction is to increase by roughly one
fifth, with emphasis on strengthening such "weak links" as
railroads, electric power, and nonferrous metals. Direct
budgeted spending on defense will be the same as in 1959 (the
equivalent of $2.36 billion) but will drop from 11 to 8.3 per-
cent of total expenditures.
1 Apr 60 cENTD A I novel I IP% r.k
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Mikoyan tolifisit Iraq
Soviet Deputy Premier Mikoyan will head an official gov-
ernment delegation to Iraq on 8 April to open the forthcoming
Soviet exhibition in Baghdad.
Mikoyan, who
will be accompanied by foreign affairs and foreign trade offi-
cials, hopes to hold talks with Qasim and other top Iraqi fig-
ures.
l\iIikoyan will be prepared
to supply "any new economic assistance," provided the ini-
tiative comes from the Iraqi Government, and he recommended
that Baghdad request a doubling of the Soviet credit of $137,500,-
000 agreed on in March 1959. Moscow is carrying out its com-
mitments under the current agreement according to schedule;
construction on most projects is not to begin until 1961.
While Baghdad cannot reasonably expect to receive tangible
benefits for some time, some Iraqi officials are becoming dis-
illusioned with bloc assistance. Any large additional commit-
ment by the USSR presumably would also be primarily in the
form of long-term aid and would do little to ease the current
economic situation.
The Qasim regime, in reaction to the present economic
stagnation, has taken steps to secure Western assistance and
has sought to find scapegoats such as the recently dismissed pro-
Communist economic planning chief who negotiated the 1959
agreement with the USSR. Soviet leaders may hope that the
political impact of a new economic aid commitment would com-
bat both of these tendencies.
There are signs that Moscow may have forced sims hn d
on the visit.
In what appears to have been
a trial balloon, anTraqi Communist newspaper announced on 28
March that consideration was being given in Baghdad to a visit
by Mikoyan to the Iraqi capital.
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Ndr
Nehru's Position in .Forthcoming Talks With Chou En- lai
apdian Prime Minister Nehru, in his discussions with
Chinese Premier Chou En-lai in New Delhi from 19 to 25
April, reportedly will continue to insist on Chinese accept-
ance of the principle that the Indo-Tibetan border is already
delimited. While also insisting initially that Peiping evacuate
military forces from all the territory it holds in the Ladakh
area of Kashmir, Nehru apparently is ready to concede Chi-
nese troops the right to stay in the immediate vicinity of the
road they built through the area:1
[Nehru reportedly has reassured President Prasad that
no Indian territory will be surrendered. Legal problems aris-
ing from provisions of the Indian constitution and from Pakistan's
claims to Kashmir would, in fact, make any formal cession of
territory difficult. Nehru may feel that some form of joint Sino-
Indian administration of Ladakh, not affecting Indian sovereignty,
could provide an eventual solutio19
New Delhi is puzzled over reports that the Chinese expect
the meeting to produce positive results, and there is concern
that Pelping may be overestimating India's readiness to nego-
tiate. Lliehru expects that the border problem will be discussed
by the two prime ministers only "in principle," and that a joint
commission will be established to consider detailed proposalsj
Although Indian officials feel the Chinese are ready to make some
concessions, they still anticipate "several years" of negotiations.
Chou, who has maneuverability denied Nehru by the latter's
need to consider domestic public opinion, may make some dra-
matic offer such as the outright exchange of disputed areas in
Assam and Ladakh. Peiping's bargaining position is based on
the contention that actual jurisdiction establishes ownership and
on its claim that the border has never been legally defined.
Hence Chou is unlikely to agree to Nehru's contention that the
border is delimited or to any significant reduction in Chinese
control of the disputed Ladakh area.
1 Apr 60
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Tension Rising in South Africa
African leaders are no longer thinking of a gradual rev-
olution some time in the future, and the African urban popu-
lation now is ready to follow leaders calling for direct action,
according to the American Embassy in Cape Town. The em-
bassy comments that in the strikes and demonstrations on 28
and 30 March, the Africans demonstrated to themselves and
to the European minority their potential for disrupting South
Africa's economic and political structure.
Most of the Union's Europeans have been united by the Afri-
can threat to their hegemony; the United party, which controls
the largest bloc of opposition seats in the South African Parlia-
ment, supported the Verwoerd government's declaration of a
state of emergency. The government will probably combine po-
lice repression with a relaxation of some of the more onerous
aspects of apartheid. This course now will not satisfy the non-
whites, who reportedly have been encouraged by the suspension
of the enforcement of the pass laws and by the forced evacua-
tion of whites from some African townships during the riots of
28 March. The embassy believes that the long-term outlook is
for further tests by the Africans of their strength, with frequent
outbreaks of violence.
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III. THE WEST
UAR Activities in Panama
The UAFt's energetic minister to Panama, Muhammad
al-Tabi, has apparently bribed a local government official
to assist him in his anti-US propaganda activities.
agreed to pay
$200 monthly to the director of the political office in the Pan-
amanian Government because he is standing with us before the
tide of American propaganda." The identity of the "director"
and the office referred to is uncertain.
Al-Tabi has created a stir by his efforts to boost UAR
prestige in Panama, often citing Nasir's nationalization of the
Suez Canal as an example which could be applied to the Panama
Canal. He has many contacts among the radical nationalists of
Panama. Al-Tabi apparently indicated to Cairo last December
that his activities were arousing comment;
the UAR Foreign Ministry telling him
that his contacts were "appreciated" and that he was to continue
them.
The UAR was also making preparations last month to send
large quantities of propaganda materials--printed in Spain�to its
numerous missions throughout Latin America. UAR Deputy For-
eign Minister Dhu al-Fix:jar Sabri is currently making a good-will
tour of 14 Latin American countries, including Panama. �
Evidence of a growing rapprochement between Panama and
the UAR was furnished by Panamanian Foreign Minister Miguel
Moreno's visit to Cairo from 10 to 14 March. Moreno discussed
with high UAR officials Panama's grievances against US policies
in the Canal Zone, and prior to his departure the two nations
signed a cultural agreement. The Panamanian official allegedly
told a Brazilian diplomat in Cairo that his country ultimately in-
tended to nationalize the Panama Canal but regarded as an imme-
diate objective a substantial increase in the amount paid annually
by the US to Panama.
1 Apr 60
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Nue
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Director, Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization
Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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