CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1960/10/08

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02977787
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RIPPUB
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U
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14
Document Creation Date: 
March 17, 2020
Document Release Date: 
March 26, 2020
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Publication Date: 
October 8, 1960
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PDF icon CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULL[15798813].pdf622.26 KB
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Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 3.3(h)(2) 1 %Or ita&%am6, "VINT' 3.5(c) 8 October 1960 Copy No. C 4 t CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO "03 NO MANCE IN CLASS. At o OtgLASSIFiElj CLASS. C,NfliD 70: TS S I NEXT H4VI...Vi _421$21.G' AUDI; Hi lu.2 DIAL JUN 1980 itrvirwrn: TOP SECRET XV/rii/7 ZA#ppzrozvel for 4lfafefdogr11.6146W Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 w_IUrJELNL I , 8 OCTOBER 1960 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Communist China rebuts recent Soviet statement on need to avoid all wars. II. ASIA-AFRICA Union of South Africa--Narrow margin of victory in favor of republic likely to deepen divisions within white population; Africans appear indifferent. Nigeria rebuffs Soviet bid for immediate diplomatic relations. Laos--King apparently abandons plan to promote political reconciliation between Vientiane and Savannakhet. Congo--Mobutu confronts UAR with evi- dence of intervention for Lumumba. III. THE WEST West Germany's cancellation of trade agreement with East Germany raises some misgivings. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 'Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 �1131 e tke (more than 1,600,000--is likely to deepen the divisions within South Africa's white population. The 10 million Africans in the Union, who were excluded from the vote, appear to be in- different to the republic question, regarding it as a squabble within the white community. Tension is high among the white population in Natal Province, stronghold of the country's Eng- lish-speaking minority, and talk of the province's secession has been Widespread. Verwoerd is likely to be subject to in- creased criticism from relatively moderate Afrikaners, many of whom regard the narrow referendum victory as an insuffi- cient mandate for the establishment of a republic. However, traditional Afrikaner solidarity will probably keep defections to a minimum, and Verwoerd may receive increasing support from rnnial conservatives in the English-speaking community. (Page 11, Nigeria-USSR: Nigeria, which became independent on 1 October, has rebuffed a Soviet bid for the immediate estab- lishment of diplomatic relations. Nigeria's moderate Prime Minister Balewa, refused to commit his government to such ties despite the insistence of Moscow's delegates to the inde- pendence celebrations that they had been "instructed" by Khru- shchev to establish an embassy in Lagos. As has been the practice of Soviet delegations attending independence cere- monies of other African states, the delegates made wide con- tacts and reportedly distributed lavish gifts to prominent per- sonalities. Although pressures for diplomatic ties with the USSR will undoubtedly increase in the future,. Balewa will probably resist the immediate establishment of relations. On the other hand, because of Nigeria's announced policy of nonalignment, Balewa is likely, to give serious consideration to establishing such re- lations at a time of his own choosing, probably within the next year. Laos: &ing Savang appears to have abandoned his plan to promote a political reconciliation between the Souvanna Phouma government and General Phoumi's Savannakhet Revolutionary Committee, While highly critical of Souvanna's recent actions,..1 8 Oct 60 DAILY BRIEF ii -ror-sEeRE-T- /Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787, %A,3 z � Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 the King told Ambassador Brown on 6 October that he would ap- point a new government only if Souvanna resigned or were forced out by the National Assembly. Savang claimed he was powerless to act without the support of either a united army or a united public opinion, neither of which he has at present� (Page 2) Republic of the Congo: ' Army chief Mobutu, 3 t confronted him with documents in which Cairo agreed to place its UN con-'1 ) tingent under Lumumba's command in event of a crisis, Mobutu spoke of reconvening the Congo parliament, a course of action which Mobutu may be inclined to favor since the action of a group of deputies in de- nouncing Lumumba on 3 October. de- scribed Mobutu as "close to a nervous breakdown," and re- ported that Mobutu admitted to having lost 30 pounds. (Page 3) III. THE WEST Berlin: LWest Germany's cancellation of its 1961 inter- zonal trade agreement--which initially received wide approval in Bonn--is now arousing second thoughts among government and party leaders there. Members of the Social Democratic c foreign affairs working group in the Bundestag are reportedly :( �- 1, highly critical of the move. One leader has voiced a fear that /7) the new trade negotiations would, for the first time, have to be conducted on a government-to-government level, thus enhanc- ing the position of East Germany and undermining the four power status of Berlin. West Germany is apparently willing to negotiate a new trade agreement in exchange for East German access guarantees � a right which the West maintains is already guaranteed by the USSR in the 1949 agreement. It also notes continued British and French reluctance to impose economic sanctions in retali- ation for East German travel restrictions:i (Page 5) 8 Oct 60 DAILY BRIEF 111 TOP SECRET AApproved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787/ ZA7 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 iftvr SECKL, Noe Prime Minister's Position Strengthened by South African Republic Referendum Prime Minister Verwoerd's victory in the recent republic referendum has confirmed the organizational effectiveness of the Afrikaner-controlled Nationalist party and has solidified his own position as leader of the Union of South Africa's politically dominant Afrikaner community. However, the narrow margin of victory�less than 80,000 votes in a total of more than 1,600,- 000�is likely to deepen the division between the Afrikaners and the large English-speaking minority-. ( Tension in the English-speaking community has been espe- cially high in Natal Province, long a stronghold of anti-republic sentiment. Some of the province's leaders have hinted that if a republic were established they would attempt to secede--a move which almost certainly would be opposed by both English and Afrikaners in the rest of the country. The province will prob- ably remain in the Union, but opposition to the Verwoerd gov- ernment can be expected to become more bitter. yerwoerd also is likely to be subject' to increased criticism from relatively moderate Afrikaners, especially in Cape Province. The Cape Nationalists reportedly believed that to obtain a clear mandate for the republic, Verwoerd would need at least 60 percent of the vote in the referendum; they may therefore argue that the 52 percent actually obtained does not justify the establishment of a republic. While such criticisms may be voiced in private, tra- ditional Afrikaner solidarity will probably keep public defections to a minimum. In fact, Verwoerd may even broaden the base of his authority by obtaining the support of some racial conservatives in the English-speaking community SECRET 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 . Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 The Situation vItt Laos SLCRET New LICing Savang appears to have abandoned any effort to force a political compromise between the Souvanna Phouma govern- ment in Vientiane and General Phoumrs Savannakhet Revolu- tionary Committee. In a 6 October audience with Ambassador Brown in Luang Prabang, the King indicated that for the pres- ent, at least, he has resigned himself to permitting events to take their own course. Savang said that Souvanna, who saw him on the same day, had asked him to send a cable to Savan- nakhet ordering Phoumi and Prince Boun Oum to dissolve the Revolutionary Committee and proclaim their allegiance to the government. The King refused, telling Souvanna that it was his responsibility either to seek reconciliation with the com- mittee or to subdue it by capturing Savannakhet. CSavang severely criticized Souvanna, not only for permit- ting Vientiane forces to violate the 28 September cease-fire agreement with Phoumi, but also for allowing the Pathet Lao to gain a position of such great strength. He added that Captain Kong Le was still a force in Vientiane and that the Pathet Lao were pulling the strings there. LSouvanna meanwhile has claimed to several sources that there is not enough time to reach a settlement with Phoumi be- fore the negotiations with the Pathet Lao which were to begin on 7 October. One of the chief negotiators for the Pathet Lao side is reported to have arrived in Vientiane. The First Mili- tary Region commander, whose headquarters is in Luang Pra- bang, claims he warned Souvanna of the dangers of negotiating with the Pathet Lao at the present juncture but that he made little impression on the premier. This commander is reported by other sources to be ready to abandon his at best nominal loyalty to Vientiane at the opportune moment. Pro-Savannakhet officers are also reported plotting to take over control of the Second Military Region, with head- quarters in Xieng Khouang Province. Only ten days ago an internal turnover in the region's command had swung the region over to Souvanna. In Vientiane, General Ouane, the armed forces commander, has indicated qualified willingness to find some way to cooperate with Phoumi in preventing further Pathet Lao gains. 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 41.14 TOP SLCRET Situation in the Congo Army chief Mobutu, confronted him with documents in which the UAR charge agreed in late September to place the UAR contingent in the Congo under Lumumba's command in the event of a crisis. Although denied this and other, evidence of Cairo's intervention on Lumumba's behalf, he reported to Cairo that a search of files revealed that such a commitment had been made by his predecessor in a let- ter to the deposed premier. Mobutu spoke of re- convening the Congo parliament, an action which may have gained favor with Mobutu after a group of deputies spoke out against Lumumba on 3 October. has characterized as exaggerated the claim of anti-Lumumba spokesmen that Lumumba now is op- posed by three quarters of the legislators from his erstwhile political stronghold, Orientale Province, but adds that the de- fections are significant, since Lumumba's parliamentary sup- port has hitherto been based almost entirely on the unity of his followers from Orientale Province. Despite the recent trend against Lumumba�highlighted by the arrest of three of his lieutenants in Stanleyville and the ero- sion of his parliamentary support--he continues to enjoy a con- siderable measure of foreign support and to benefit from inde- cisiveness on the part of the harassed Mobutu. In addition to the active support he is receiving from Ghana, Guinea, and the UAR, Lumumba is supported somewhat less enthusiastically by Morocco,Cyhose secretary general for foreign affairs stated on 6 October that the only feasible solution to the Congo impasse would be a working agreement among Kasavubu, Lumumba, and Mobutu. ) Lumumba may also benefit from the physical strain undergone by Mobutu, who has spoken of "quitting" and who was described TOP SECRET 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 *mot TOP SECRLT as "close to a nervous breakdown." LElsewhere, the director of the Congo Central Bank in Brus- sels has stated that the Congo Government has requested its last line of credit, and that after this is exhausted�around 15 Octo- ber--the Congo will have no further funds. He noted, however, that It might be possible to permit further borrowing by raising the present debt ceiling. TOP SECRET 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 'WO West Gemians Having Second Thoughts on Cancellation of East German Trade Agreement CWest Germany's cancellation on 30 September of its 1961 interzonal trade agreement with East Germany--which initially received wide approval in Bonn--now is arousing second thoughts among government and party leaders there. ' I...Members of the opposing Social Democratic party's for- eign affairs working group in the Bundestag are reportedly highly critical of the move. One leader has voiced a fear that the government might, for the first time, be forced to give in to East German pressure to conduct new trade negotiations on a government-to-government level, thus enhancing the posi- tion of East Germany and undermining the four-power status of Berlin. Although West Berlin Mayor and SPD chancellor candidate Willy Brandt and possibly other SPD leaders were consulted regarding the move, SPD Deputy Chairman Herbert Wehner complained that it took the party completely by sur- prise. He also stated that the party was in a quandary be- cause Brandt had agreed to the cancellation before other SPD leaders had an opportunity to consider it. j __Deputy Foreign Minister Carstens, at an off-the-record briefing for newsmen on 4 October, reportedly conveyed the impression that Bonn is retreating a little from its trade pact decision and feels somewhat defensive about it. Bonn is apparently willing to negotiate a new trade agreement in exchange for East German guarantees on access to Berlin--a right which the West main- tains is guaranteed by the USSR in the 1949 agreements. continued reluctance on the part of the French and British to impose effective economic or travel sanctions�including the denial of travel visas to East German trade mission personnel--in retaliation for East German travel restrictions. Ankara has informed Bonn not to expect Turkish 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 NaveSECRETft�pid support in its economic or travel sanctions. Efforts to line up Allied support for countermeasures have been complicated by conflicting public statements of leading German officials regarding the significance of the trade pact cancellation and the statement in the North Atlantic Convention on 5 October by the West German permanent representative that--contrary to previous indications--interzonal trade could not in practice continue after 1 January 1961 in the absence of a new agree- ment with the East Germans. 8 Oct 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 � WINE' !VEIN 1 UAL 11104 THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Director, Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Commandant, United States Marine Corps Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director Approved for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787 ror/ TOP�SKIM $1/ 1177/ 05/ 1%/"#�7#� 1 1 1�#''/4 1 4/: ,d4/ �rj or/ 1/ lOP SECRET rff eZ,Z4 /7, 77, z�App ro v e d for Release: 2020/03/13 CO2977787� 4,