CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/02/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02980781
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 28, 1954

for
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28 February 1954
Copy No. 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO NO
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NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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AUTH: HR 704%
DATE: ikat v. REVIEWER:
lei Pr
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. West Germans considering sizeable Soviet orders for ships (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Russian advisers hold controlling positions in North Korea (page 3).
3. Third Chinese Nationalist pilot in two months defects to Com-
munists (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese premier discusses problems of coming independence
negotiations: (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Kashani tries to foster minority faction in Iranian parliament
(page 51.
6.
7. Israel strengthening defenses on Syrian and Egyptian borders
(page 6).
8. Comment on the Egyptian situation (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Hungary reportedly seeking to purchase US wheat (page 8).
10. Czech president subordinates military production to raising of
living standard (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
11.
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GENERAL
1. West Germans considering sizeable Soviet orders for ships:
Officials of the West German Foreign Ministry
have informed the US High Commissioner of
recent discussions in London between repre-
sentatives of the Soviet Union and German
shipbuilding interests. Two deals are evidently under consideration,
one involving the delivery to the USSR of 10 to 15 ships of about 5,800
tons each, and the other an equal number of ships with a slightly
greater tonnage.
The German officials said that the shipyard
representatives had been cautioned against Soviet orders on the grounds
of strategic considerations, the absence of a foreseeable quid pro quo,
and the possibility that the orders might be merely "window shopping
for propaganda purposes." They stated, however, that the Bonn govern-
ment is actively interested in a normalization and expansion of East-
West trade.
Comment: In view of other Soviet orders
for ships placed with Western countries, these offers are notlikely
to be "window shopping."
FAR EAST
. Russian advisers hold controlling positions in North Korea:
hile the presence of both Russian advisers
nd Chinese technicians in North Korea is
increasingly reported, the Russians are
ormally placed in controlling positions, accor-
dingt Lie embassy in Seoul. The only, exception is the railroads,
where the Chinese appear to have full supervision.
the USSR may be making control by Russian advisers a condition
of its aidprogram.
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Comment: While China's position in North
Korea has been strengthened as a result of the war, there is no evi-
dence that Peiping is challenging Moscow's control, or that North
Korea has been integrated into the Chinese sphere.
Soviet-oriented Koreans occupy most of
the important government and party posts and there is no indication
of the presence of Chinese advisers at important industrial installa-
tions or at high government levels.
3. Third Chinese Nationalist pilot in two months defects to Communists:
On 21 February the pilot of a Chinese
Nationalist air force B-25 on a local training
flight tried to induce his radio operator to
fire on the city of Taipei and his co-pilot
to join him in flying to Communist China, according to the co-pilot
concerned. The pilot shot and killed the radio operator and forced
the co-pilot to bail out, then flew on toward the mainland.
the crew had been
together for several months and that the pilot, who was American-
trained, left his wife and family on Formosa.
Comment: Two other Nationalist pilots
are reliably reported to have defected with their trainer aircraft
in late December.
Although the Nationalist armed forces on
review before foreign visitors give an impression of high Morale,
American military observers on Formosa have recently reported
that service morale has been deteriorating.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese premier discusses problems of coming independence
negotiations:
Premier Buu Loc has told Ambassador
Heath in Saigon that his government
has not yet decided on its course in
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negotiations for Vietnamese independence which begin in Paris on
8 March. He stated that he was fully aware that if complete Vietnamese
independence were agreed on before the opening of the Geneva con-
ference on 26 April, French sentiment for quitting Indochina might
become crystalized and Vietnam be left to fight alone.
Heath believes that Buu Loc will seek
definite French assurances on continuation of military aid to Vietnam
and on treating the Associated States as equal partners in preparing
a position for Geneva. Rz.,6aAin the Geneva conference itself, 1311U Loc
said "if they are going to request CominzinibtChina to slop aiding tha Viet
Minh, that is fine; but if they are going to negotiate an armistice
with Ho Chi Minh, that is something quite different."
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Kashani tries to foster minority faction in Iranian parliament:
Comment: These are the first indications
that Kashani is trying to foster a Malts opposition faction which he
hopes to direct from behind the scenes. Such a faction was originally
used by Mossadeq to promote himself into the premiership.
Owing to government alertness to Kashani's
machinations, it is unlikely that he will be able to rouse much support
in the beginning. His subsequent success would depend largely on
the government's failure to achieve an acceptable oil settlement.
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6.
7. Israel strengthening defenses on Syrian and Egyptian borders:
Israel is strengthening its defenses along
the Syrian and Egyptian borders and calling
up reserves in view of the instability in
these countries. An Israeli official when
queries stated that only one reserve brigade had been called up to
strengthen the northern defenses.
terms these
actions "logical defense preparations."
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Comment: Israeli Chief of Staff Dayan issued
a public statement on 26 February that the army was preparing for the
eventuality of war with the Arab states. The independent Maariv,
Israel's largest newspaper, urged on the same day that Israeli forces
march on the Suez and cut the Sinai desert and the Gaza coastal strip
from Egypt.
Israel's bellicose gestures probably stem
in part from its fear that the present chaotic situation may be resolved
eventually in some type of union including Iraq, Sylia and possibly
jordan. Israeli maneuvers, however, add still another inflamMatory
element to the tense situation.
8. Comment on the Egyptian situation:
The formal reconciliation of General Nagib
and Colonel Nasr appears to be a weak
compromise which invites further struggle
and possibly the complete deterioration of
the Revolutionary Command Council itself.
The sudden turn of events, reflecting internal
dissension in the Command Council as well as the strength of rebellious
elements within the army, makes it unlikely that the government will
be able to take a positive stand on major issues. Nagib remains a
popular but basically weak leader. a
The outlook for a settlement of the Suez
problem is no brighter, and domestic opponents of the regime such
as the Wafd and the Moslem Brotherh000d will be encouraged to in-
crease their activity.
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EASTERN EUROPE
9. Hungary reportedly seeking to purchase US wheat:
has informed HICOG
officials that Hungary is seeking to purchase
100,000 tons of wheat from the United States
with payment to be made partly in gold through
a Swiss bank. The same source reported that Hungary has contracted
to buy large quantities of grain from Sweden.
Comment: These purchases are in line with
the Orbit policy of developing trade with the West in order to increase
imports of consumer goods and reduce international tensions. Under
this program the Satellites are directed to fulfill trade commitments to
Western countries even at the price of purchasing commodities for
gold elsewhere.
Hungary, traditionally a grain exporting
country, is suffering from serious bread grain and fodder shortages
as a result of two successive poor harvests. Moreover, because of
a drought, prospects for the 1954 crop are not good.
10. Czech president subordinates military production to raising of living
standard:
Czech president Zapotocky stated publicly
in a speech before the Military Technical
Academy in Brno on 25 February that "our
special aim is the proper proportioning of
military production so as not to impede the rising living standards
of our people."
Comment: A public statement of this nature
by a high Satellite official ii7iTITA leant in revealing the overriding
priority being given to the improvement of living standards under the
new economic policy, even at the et�$t cY;E' pima military expansion. It
supports intelligence estimates that cutbacks in capital investment
have affected military production.
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LATIN AMERICA
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