CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02980782
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 4, 1954

pproved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782 or
TO �
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
4 March 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
9
DOCUMENT NO. irrerS...
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I:] DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 20(3.3
AUTH: HR 70-2,43CS
DATE: _ _I__ REVIEWER:
9.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
A
CR
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
A. NAL., A.
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1.
2.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French Commander sees need of military "coup" before Geneva
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Disturbances may break out during Tehran elections (page 5).
5. Alleged Soviet agent arrested in raid on Tudeh center (page 6).
6. Revolutionary Command Council members still hostile to Nagib
(page 6).
7.
WESTERN EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA
8. Arbenz speech may presage new Guatemalan tactics at Caracas
(page 7).
* * * *
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
JEA-.1A.J.:. J.
SOVIET UNION
1.
2.
3
Approved
-
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
Ise 1 k...)1 JE..k....11.E.,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French commander sees need of military "coup" before Geneva:
General Cogny, commander in Tonkin,
believes that to enhance the French
position at Geneva, it is desirable that
his forces execute some major coup
before 26 April, according to the American consul in Hanoi. Whether
this coup takes the form of major clearing operations within the Tonkin
delta or large-scale raids outside, Cogny stated, it is indispensable
that the lost initiative be "demonstrably regained."
Commenting on conditions in the delta,
the French commander said that the situation there had gradually
deteriorated since the onset of operations in Laos. He mentioned
specifically the enemy's mine warfare, which is increasing seriously
and spreading to areas previously free of it. Eighty percent of the
officer losses in Tonkin during the past six months were attributed
to enemy mines.
4
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
j. .1-A-�
Comment: It is unlikely that Cogny,
with his mobile reserve so depleted, could undertake large-scale
operations. Some of his reserves are being returned to the delta,
however, which may permit him to undertake an operation of
limited scope, such as an attack on an enemy supply base, in order
to put the French in a more favorable propaganda position.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Disturbances may break out during Tehran elections:
Current reports indicate that disturbances
may break out when the postponed Majlis
elections in Tehran begin on 6 March,
As usual, martial law will be lifted during
the elections, but an armored division has been alerted and an infantry
division will be ready if needed.
Army telephone communications allegedly
were cut twice last week, but the Iranian G-2 and deputy chief appear
unconcerned over the possibility of a lack of communications during
disturbances.
Opposition leaders Baghai, Kashani, Makki
and others are trying to arouse opposition to Zahedi personally as well
as to the government's handling of the elections. They are also reported
to be "cautiously seeking Communist support."
Comment: The opposition is expected to
make a strong bid in Tehran, seat of Iranian political extremism,
where 12 seats are at stake,and disturbances are almost inevitable.
Suppression of rioting by force will not increase the government's
popularity and will strengthen the opposition even if it wins no Majlis
seats.
Tor SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
WI'../LIXLA
5. Alleged Soviet agent arrested in raid on Tudeh center:
On 27 February Iranian army intelligence
officers raided a Tudeh military training
center at Veramin southeast of Tehran,
k orty arrests reportedly were made,
including that of an instructor of Tudeh terrorists, believed to be a
Soviet national.
General Baldthar, Tehran's military governor,
considers the raid a major blow at the Tudeh organization in the area.
Interrogations have produced organizational data, code designations of
members, and campaign plans to isolate Tehran from military support
from the south.
Comment: This raid appears to be one of
the most important moves carried out by the government against the
Tudeh. Previous reports have stated that Soviet agents were training
the Tudeh,
6. Revolutionary Command Council members still hostile to Nagib:
Under Premier Nasr's leadership, the RCC
also decided on ruthless suppression of the banned Moslem Brotherhood,
the Wafd Party, and the Communists, who they consider most likely to
exploit the current political situation. The RCC members were told to
"work as though the revolution were starting all over again" and to
"discipline the entire country, if necessary, to realize the aims of the
revolution."
6
P SECRFF
�
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
*al I k..11� .DEA-4XL: Foie'
Comment:
the RCC is threatened by internal schism as well as by its
continuing friction with Nagib. Under these circumstances, a new
coup is possible under the leadership of dissident military elements,
who might appeal to extremist groups for mass support.
WESTERN EUROPE
7.
LATIN AMERICA
8. Arbenz speech may presage new Guatemalan tactics at Caracas:
In his State of the Nation address on 1 March,
Guatemalan president Arbenz criticized past
inter-American resolutions on Communist
intervention as "vague and inexact.," Asking
for clarification of what was meant by intervention, he stated that under
international law neither a doctrine nor an organization but only a state
can be guilty of intervention.
- '7 -
TOP STCRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54
10 1 4_, 1 L.11:k....1\1..: A
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782_
Comment: The speech suggests that
Guatemala may raise questions of international law at Caracas to
confuse further the scheduled discussion of Communist intervention.
This tactic could touch off lengthy debate
among the Latin Americans, who pride themselves on their proficiency
in international law, on the propriety of ascribing any intervention to
an ideology or movement, and could result in the Caracas resolution
on the subject being as vaguely worded as the ones passed in 1948 at
Bogota and in 1951 at Washington.
-
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2980782
4 Mar 54