CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02980783
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 2, 1954

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2 March 1954 3.5(c)
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Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Fl DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: AsrrIEWER-
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2003
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY'
SOVIET UNION
FAR EAST
2. British mission sees Chinese Communist Party shake-up probable
(page 3).
3. Peiping admits at least 80,000,000 Chinese facing food shortages
(page 4).
4.
(page 4).
Chinese war materiel being flown toward Indochina
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Djakarta demonstrations (page 5).
6. French defense officials fear air attacks in Indochina (page 5).
7.
8.
9.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Confusion in Syria may bring leftist leader to the fore (page 6).
Extremist, factions emerge following return of Nagib (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Czechoslovakia to imitate Western consumer goods Inagp
11.
WESTERN EUROPE
12. Coty optimistic on EDC but urges some changes (page 9).
LATIN AMERICA
13. Argentina may request special economic meeting to follow
Caracas conference (page 9).
* * * *
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Ns,
SOVIET UNION
1.
FAR EAST
2. British mission sees Chinese Communist Party shake-up probable:
The British mission in Peiping believes that
"all is not well" in the upper ranks of the
Chinese Communist Party, although there
is no evidence of a serious split.
The central committee's emphasis, in its
plenary session in Peiping in February, on the need for "unity" among
senior civilian and military members is seen as indicating a probable
shake-up, with some expulsions from the party. The mission has no
reason to suppose, however, that the party will depart from its past
practice of avoiding a sensational purge.
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Comment: The plenary session provided
good reason to believe that the party's "reorganization," under way
since 1951, will extend into its leadership this year. While several
members of the central committee appear eligible for discard, it is
uncertain whether any member of the 11-man politburo will be affected
or whether Chairman Mao Tse-tung will dramatize the issue publicly.
3. Peiping admits at least 80,000,000 Chinese facing food shortages:
4.
The American consul general at long Kong
quotes the official People's Daily of Peiping
as admitting on 10 February that 20 percent
of China's rural population is facing food
shortages. The newspaper classifies almost
half of these as "famine-stricken."
Comment: In broadcasting the gist of this
editorial on 10 February, Peiping omitted the percentage figures,
which would mean that at least 80,000,000 Chinese are affected. This
is Peiping's first admission of widespread rural food shortages, which
have appeared in prospect for several months as a result of subnormal
food harvests, expanding food shipments to the Soviet Union, and pref-
erential treatment for urban labor and the armed forces.
Chinese war materiel being flown toward Indochina:
Comment: supply
flights to Kunming, noted several times in recent months, would seem
to reflect a high priority assigned by Peiping to satisfying Viet Minh
needs quickly and effectively. Kunming is a principal supply center
on the main route into western Indochina.
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41.01
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Djakarta demonstrations:
The demonstrations by several hundred
thousand persons in Djakarta on 28 Febru-
ary, in protest against alleged insults to
Islam by various government and Communist leaders, indicates the
popular appeal the opposition Masjumi Party can muster when it draws
on its religious base.
A smaller demonstration by Moslem groups
on 13 February provoked a larger show of force by government and
Communist supporters on 20 February. The latest outbreak was the
largest and most unruly.
The government's majority in parliament
is secure even if the two small Moslem parties represented in the
cabinet carry out their threat to withdraw. Because of this the Masjumi
and their Socialist allies probably feel that only by showing overwhelming
support can they force the government's downfall. In appealing to Vice
President Hatta, the crowds probably hoped to make it apparent to Presi-
dent Sukarno that his support of the present government is unpopular.
6. French defense officials fear air attacks in Indochina:
French defense minister Pleven told Ambas-
sador Heath in Saigon on 27 February that he
could scarcely recommend a prolonged French
military effort without "fairly precise" assur-
ance of the American reaction to Chinese Communist intervention in the
form of a "Viet Minh air force." He said this applied even if he could ob-
tain convincing assurance of a better Vietnamese contribution.
Earlier the same day, the French army secre-
tary told Heath that the military situation was by no means unsatisfactory
but could change overnight if MIG's were suddenly to appear over Dien
Bien Phu.
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Comment: There have been persistent
reports of Viet Minh pilots training in China but no firm evidence
that China has assigned planes to a Viet Minh air force.
The French have been obliged for several
years to carry out their military planning and operations under the
threat of air and troop intervention from China.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7.
8. Confusion in Syria may bring leftist leader to the fore:
Neither of Syria's old-line political parties
dominates the cabinet coalition,
To gain power
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both may make concessions to the radical
Arab Socialist Party, thus bringing its
leader, Akram Hawrani, to the fore.
The army attach�n Damascus reports that
announcements and congratulatory telegrams
read on the Aleppo radio reflected strong
leftist tendencies, echoing the lines of Hawrani
and even of the Communists. One of the leaders of the current revolt,
Captain Mustafa Hamdun, is reportedly a follower of Hawrani.
Comment: Hawrani is an extreme leftist
with strong anti-Western sentiments. He broke with Shishakli over the
latter's failure to implement a strong land reform program. A year
ago he merged his party with the Arab Resurrectionist Party, an
extremist, pan-Arab group.
9. Extremist factions emerge following return of Nagib:
Ambassador Caffery in Cairo reports that the
"monolithic front" of the Revolutionary Command
Council is no longer intact and that Major Khalid
Muheiddin, young leftist member of the council,
and a group of junior cavalry officers are currently prominent as a result
of their part in the restoration of General Nagib.
Both Moslem Brotherhood and Communist
organizers have been reported as active in the demonstrations support-
ing Nagib's return. Salah Ashmawi, expelled extremist of the outlawed
Brotherhood, appeared publicly with Nagib as he was being welcomed
back. Caffery believes that both the Brotherhood and the Communists
will use the present unsettled situation to enlist Nagib's support for
their ideas.
Comment: In the renewed struggle for power
in Egypt, extremists and old-line politicians may attempt to form alliances
with current government leaders. Their temptation to accept such support
is now increased.
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EASTERN EUROPE
10. Czechoslovakia to imitate Western consumer goods:
Comment: This evidence of a Satellite
policy of copying Western products is indicative of the broad effort
being exerted in the current consumer goods program. Imitation of
Western techniques and products would improve the quality and
variety of production in an industry which has been almost completely
neglected for six years.
11.
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WESTERN EUROPE
12. Coty optimistic on EDC but urges some changes:
President Coty told General Gruenther
on 26 February that in his opinion the
prospects for EDC in France were much
better than two weeks earlier. After talk-
ing with many French leaders including opponents of the treaty, Coty
was convinced that a rapprochement between France and a rearmed
Germany is generally acceptable. He felt, however, that efforts
should be made to find some acceptable changes to enable some
opponents to save face.
The permanent secretary of the National
Assembly's Foreign Affairs Committee has told the American embassy
in Paris that assembly debate on EDC is improbable before May for
technical reasons.
Comment: Although Laniel has apparently
been persuaded against treaty changes which would require renegotia-
tion among the signatory powers, he still feels that minor concessions
are necessary to secure ratification.
LATIN AMERICA
13. Argentina may request special economic meeting to follow Caracas
conference:
Comment: This maneuver seems to imply
strong doubts, which apparently are shared by other countries, that
the Caracas conference will satisfy Latin America's economic grievances.
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a request for such a
special conference could be based on the unfulfilled resolution passed
at the 1948 Inter-American Conference calling for an economic meeting
in Buenos Aires later the same year.
Argentina would probably like to line up
support for such a conference because of growing resentment of what
it regards as American "dumping" and trade barriers affecting such
key Argentine exports as wheat, linseed oil and wool. Recent state-
ments on these practices by Uruguay and other countries suggest that
a proposal for an economic conference would probably find overwhelm-
ing support at Caracas.
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