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August 7, 1958
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//////1//////////////./ for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 '4' 10,# TOP SECRET 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 7 August 1958 Copy No. C- CENTRAL 57 INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOClitiF.1"; NO NC) REVIEVIE1 _ 6 40P-SEC-RET- p`provel for "ele-ase : -2626/0-1 i''.3-C-02-98-7676/ /A Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 1J Approved 7:17-Vle:s7.107070723 CO2987879 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 1I-"ellela 7 AUGUST 1958 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Peiping endorses Soviet call for spe- cial UN General Assembly session and for Summit meeting on global is- sues. Chinese Communist statistics for first half of 1958 claim phenomenal economic progress. II. ASIA-AFRICA Chinese Nationalists pondering pos- sible courses of action in response to Communist occupation of coastal airfields. Jordan - A coup against King Husayn may be attempted soon. UAR vice president in Saudi Arabia on official visit. f III. THE WEST Macmillan may modify some details of Britain's Cyprus plan during Athens talks to gain Greek coopera- tion. New attempt to overthrow Duvalier regime in Haiti possible. SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 gr 'Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 "'%44. *' ' ,01 #01 4,111 v/ ""V g/ -,,1 4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 7 August 1958 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Summit talks: On 6 August Peiping endorsed both points made in Khrushchev's 5 August letter--the call for a special meeting of the UN General Assembly to discuss US and UK "intervention" in the Middle East as well as the demand for a summit meeting on world issues as first proposed last Decem- ber. On 5 August in a two-and-one-half hour interview with Adlai Stevenson, Khrushchev insisted on a summit conference which mould not be limited to Middle East issues but would deal with a wide range of international matters. Moscow and Peiping are so far avoiding an explicit demand for Chinese Communist participation in a summit meeting. Khrushchev's 5 August letter urged a summit conference "composed as we earlier proposed"--presumably excluding Communist China. (Page 1) Communist China: Peiping's statistical report for the 2 first half of the year shows industrial production up 34 per- cent over the same period in 1957, construction actitrity well over the previous high in 1956, and bumper early harvests. These statistics claim phenomenal progress and remain to be substantiated. The leadership professes to believe that these achievements are but a "prelude" to even greater progress in the last half of the year. Communist leaders clearly feel that this growth vindicates the "giant leap forward" economic poli- cies which had been regarded as too hazardous by the "gloomy clique." (Page 2) SECRET WA/Z/77/71-7,//////1/1/77,4 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO298787977/7"19/ / 7/1; FA", � Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 , Watch Committee conclusion--Sino-Soviet bloc: A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hos- tilities against the continental US or its possessions in the immediate future. B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to initiate direct military action against US forces abroad, US allies, or areas peripheral to the Orbit in the immediate future. NOTE: Soviet forces in areas adjacent fo the Middle East remain on a limited alert but the evidence does not indi- cate general preparations for military action in the Middle East or elsewhere. Chinese Communist fighter air strength has been deployed to two coastal airfields opposite Taiwan, which has increased Chinese Nationalist apprehensions. There is a possibility of serious air clashes in the Taiwan Strait area. The activities of other Chinese Communist forces, however, do not reflect intentions for major ac- tion against the _Off shore Islands or Taiwan in the imme- diate future. II. ASIA-AFRICA Taiwan: The Chinese Nationalist Air Force, the Chinese Na- tionalists are considering two courses of action in regard to Communist Chinese occupation of some coastal airfields op- site Taiwan--to "live with the situation," which can stop Chinese Nationalist reconnaissance over- flights, or to carry out air attacks to destroy the airfields. A decision is expected by 9 August. However, Chiang Kai-shek has personally reassured Ambassador Drumright and Admiral Smoot that the Nationalists will honor their commitment not to undertake actions such as bombing of mainland airfields with- out consultation with the US. Nevertheless, continuing Chinese Nationalist efforts to maintain almost daily reconnaissance sweeps in squadron strength could lead to air combat over the Taiwan Strait at any time. (Page 3) 7 Atli 58 DAILY BRIEF ii for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879,97/j/Z,/,�"4/4; W/7/7/747///77/7/77/7/77/7,17,:///1/77, 7/W:/j37,///Zf/f�r1/7/1/Z/Z/VXA VaZ7�,-//7/7/0 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East: Although a deliberate initiation of open hostilities in the Middle East is unlikely in the immediate future, the situation remains highly unstable throughout the area, particularly where US and UK interests or commitments are involved, and incidents could occur at any time. NOTE: The declining morale of Husayn in the face of Jordan's economic and political isolation is aggravating the dangerous instability of Jordan despite the presence of British forces, If the regime collapses, Israeli and UAR action to take control of Jordanian territory is pos- sible. The pro-Western orientation of Saudi Arabia is threat- ened by the deteriorating position of Saud and the in- creasing influence of the UAR. Jordan: There are indications that a coup against King Husayn may be undertaWn shortly. (Page 4) *Saudi Arabia - UAR: The Saudi Government, increas- ingly dominated by Crown Prince Faysal, appears to be moving quickly to re-establish close relations with Nasir. Cro.wn Prince Faysal is expected to take complete charge in Saudi Arabia within five days. Gen- eral Abd al-Hakim Amir, UAR Vice President, arrived in Saudi Arabia on an official visit on 6 August, reportedly to negotiate agreement for teturn of an Egyptian military mission. Hakim's trip was pre- ceded by a Saudi request, that Saudi military officers again be trained in UAR facilities. the Saudi radio station in Jidda has been instructed to resume working with the UAR joint command station in Cairo. \r/ Aug 58 DAILY B 111 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 , 77/ III. THE WEST *Britain - Cyprus: Prime Minister Macmillan, in his talks with Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis beginning 7 August in Athens, may agree to modify some details of Brit- ain's plan for Cyprus in the hope of gaining Karamanlis' co- operation in putting the plan into effect. He may believe that granting Athens' desire to provide the proposed government with advisers chosen by the Greek and Turkish communities rather than with advisers designated by Athens and Ankara would offer the best prospect for capitalizing on EOKA's truce, which is subject to expiration on 10 August. Turkey may be expected to accept Macmillan's offer to visit Ankara. (Page 5) Haiti: A new attempt to overthrow the Duvalier govern- ment, possibly with material support from the Dominican Republic, may be launched in the near future. Despite Du- valier's quashing of a coup his control over the political situation is weak. (Page 7) 7 Aug 58 DAILY BRIEF iv UI 7%1 7 ,,,,,,//7/7/7/7/7,7/7/ -/A, A p proved for Release: 2020/01/23 C0-2/g7r/9r////n/V2TZ,/r,7////ZZA Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 16,2-06,411.1.ii I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Peiping Endorses Khrushchev Middle East and Summit Proposals Communist China endorsed on 6 August Soviet Pre- mier Khrushchev's proposals regarding a special meet- ing of the UN General Assembly to deal with the question of Anglo-American "aggression" in the Middle East and a summit conference dealing with broader issues. Mie day before Peiping's endorsement, Khrushchev told Adlai Stevenson in the course of a two-and-one-half hour inter- view that it now was "too late" for a summit session on the Middle East situation alone and that Moscow would in- sist on a conference _which would deal with the whole range of summit problems. In hailing the concept of a comprehensive conference, Peiping gives no indication that it would seek to participate, but current tension in the Taiwan Strait area may have been occasioned by a Sino -Soviet decision to stir up a Far East- ern issue which could serve as the pretext for Peiping's attendance at the summit. In his 5 August letters to Western leaders, however, Khrushchev, in speaking of a summit meeting, urged a conference "composed as we earlier proposed." Earlier Soviet proposals did not include a bid for Peiping's partici- pation, and Khrushchev recently said there was no question of Chinese attendance but only of seeing to it that Chinese interests were properly defended. Khrushchev's latest proposals were drafted in response to the US and UK messages of 31 July and 1 August which arrived in Moscow during his absence in Peiping, and would not appear to have been the result of Chinese Communist pressure. Mao in his joint communique with Khrushchev of 3 August endorsed the earlier Soviet proposal for a big power summit conference limited to the Middle East. 7 Aug 58 e..aak A 19"....eI e./...e.k geftir. n11111 111r1.1111, Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Ali AL a�..e a � a a �.4,091 Economic Gains Announced by Peiping The leadership in Peiping feels that the report of the State Statistical Bureau, showing an "unprecedentedly rap- id" economic growth during the first half of the year, vin- dicates its drive begun last winter for a "giant leap forward" economic policy. Commenting on the report, the official People's Daily says it, invalidates the views of the "gloomy clique" which has held that the "leap" policies were too haz- ardous. The tone of the commentary suggests that Peiping may soon take steps against the as yet unidentified members of the clique. The report asserts that during the first six months the total value of industrial output increased 34 percent over the same period last year, as compared with a 15-percent in- crease for the full year called for in the official plan and a 33-percent increase subsequently pledged under the regime's leap forward program. Investment in new construction was more than 40 percent above the midyear level of the record construction year of 1956. The total harvest of winter grain and early summer crops will show a remarkable 69-percent increase over the same crops last year. China's wheat crop, it is said, will top that of the US for the first time. The agricultural claims may be exaggerated, but Peiping doubtless got a substantial in- crease in early crops through intensive cultivation, improved water control, and the application of over 48 tons of natural fertilizer per acre. Peiping's statistics seem remarkably favorable and re- main to be substantiated, 7 Aug 58 rpkrro A I !MITI I inn�irp RI III FT11�1 Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 � - � -- Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 II. ASIA-AFRICA Chinese Nationalist Reaction to Chinese Communist Occupation of Airfields Opposite Taiwan The Chinese Nationalists appear genuinely concerned over the radically altered situation in the Taiwan Strait. Nationalist military officials now regard strategic control of the straits as lost and fear the ultimate loss of the offshore islands. The Nationalists are continuing air patrols over the strait with protective high cover, and with instructions to avoid engagement. However, the aggressiveness of Chinese Communist air patrols conducted against daily Nationalist reconnaissance flights since the occupation of the coastal airfields may lead to clashes by forces of squadron strength. An air battle on this scale could develop into an eggagement involving Taiwan air space, without either side so intending. The American air attach�elieves the Nationalists will not risk a major conflict by bombing the airfields at this time. Ambassador Drumright thinks, however, that they certainly will oppose any Communist attempt to control the air space over the Taiwan Strait and the offshore islands despite Communist superiority in numbers and quality of aircraft, and that any resulting air action would probably lead to bombing of air bases and then to United States involve- ment. Additionally, the offshore islands, where one third of the Nationalist ground forces are stationed, would become isolated. Drumright believes the Nationalists are deter- mined to fight to the bitter end and will sacrifice men and equipment rather than evacuate. SECRET 7 Aug 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Nftoe Nene Plotting Against King of Jordan Antigovernment officers and civilians, led by Jordanian army Deputy Chief of Staff Sadiq Shara, are reported to be determined to initiate an attempt to overthrow King Husayn at the earliest possible monent, despite the presence of the small British force in Jordan. Army units recently moved to Amman from West Jordan may be under the influence of officers sympathetic to the opposition. On the basis of pres- ent opposition planning, the attempt to overthrow the gov- ernment would occur during the week of 10-16 August. Former Minister of Defense and Interior Ajluni, who is hostile to the government, has scoffed at the contention that the King can count on the support of the important Bani Sakr Bedouin tribe, which provides much of the manpower for army units considered loyal by the crown. Ajluni claims that be- cause of deep hatred for the government stemming from its repressive acts, a compromise solution of Jordan's political orientation is unlikely. He foresees fighting more intense and of longer duration than has occurred in Lebanon, and claims that the government has uncove nniv i smcill nAmcmtge of arms smuggled into Jordan. 7 Aug 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Approved for Release: 2020761/23 CO2987879 III. THE WEST Macmillan's Visit to Athens Macmillan's sudden trip to Greece was made in an ef- fort to capitalize on the truce on Cyprus in seeking a solution to the island's problems, taking advantage also of the efforts NATO Secretary General Spaak has made with the Greek and Turkish NATO representatives toward narrowing differences. Macmillan, who has offered to visit Ankara also, presumably will continue to insist that the British plan for seven years of self-government be the basis of discussion. The British plan envisages separate communal assemblies�the specific re, sponsibilities of which remain to be defined--topped by a min- isterial council, with the British governor retaining responsi- bility for defense, internal security, and foreign affairs. Macmillan now may be willing to modify certain details in the British plan in order to reach some agreement that can lead to negotiations and implementation of a detailed plan. He might, for example, grant the Greek request that the two ad- visers to the Governor of Cyprus be chosen by the Greek and Turkish Cypriots instead of being official representatives of the governments in Athens and Ankara. Britain had hoped by its original suggestion to induce Greece and Turkey to assume partial responsibility for Cyprus; the Turks have considered the suggestion advantageous and presumably would oppose its modification. A Foreign Office official said recently that this point could be discussed but indicated that a Greek suggestion that a plebiscite be held after the seven-year period, exclud- ing both enosis and partition, was inadmissible. Macmillan reiterated to Turkish Prime Minister Menderes on 30 July that a final solution could not be decided on until the end of the seven-year period. Governor Foot who is joining Macmillan in Athens will probably confer with Archbishop Makarios, with whom he has 7 Aug 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 �genu�v-ru.-.41 Nati been exchanging views for several months. While willing to grant Makarios a significant role in any future Cyprus government, Foreign Secretary Lennox-Boyd only last week stated that Makarios would not be allowed to return to the island until violence had ceased; and Foot had previously suggested that a month or two of peace would be required. 7 Aug 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879 \mei *Id Another Coup Attempt Imminent in Haiti Another attempt to oust the regime of Haitian President Francois Duvalier appears imminent. The secretary of the Dominican Embassy in Port-au-Prince is said to have admitted that a Dominican plane which landed recently in Jamaica is to be used in the attempt. He blamed the delay to date on bad weather and security measures by the Haitian Air Force, which each night rolls oil drums onto the landing strip of the airfield near Port-au-Prince. The Dominicans have long been reported aiding Duvalier's political opposition in a plan to overthrow the government. The political atmosphere in Haiti has become increasingly tense since the abortive coup attempt on 29 July. The govern- ment has increased its repressive measures against suspected opponents and has indicated concern for its own security by re- questing the United States to establish air and sea patrols along the Haitian coast. With the loyalty of the army in doubt and with his principal support coming from the secret police and other civilian partisans, Duvalier's control is precarious. A well- organized coup attem t ou d probably spark a spontaneous general uprising. 7 Aug 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2987879