CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02989039
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 5, 1955

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5 January 1955
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Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
J DECLASSFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
. DATE: _CS/ile.C... REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Invitees initially wary of Asian-African conference (page 3).
2. Indians said to have dominated Colombo powers conference
(page 3).
3. Yugoslav USSR trade talks reported having difficulties (page 4).
4. Trilateral arrangement may supplant Sino-Ceylonese rice
rubber deal (page 5).
FAR EAST
5. Japan outlines measures for increasing Orbit trade (page 5).
6. Increased military need for oil in East China indicated (page 6).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. Vietnamese premier approaches showdown with Binh Xuyen
(page 8).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Heightened public tension in Poland reported (page 9).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Remon assassination seen prelude to "Central American flare-up"
(page 9).
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GENERAL
1. Invitees initially wary of Asian-African conference:
'dal reactions of several of the
rincipal invitees to the proposed
ian-African conference show they
re predominantly wary, according to
eports from American embassies.
Egypt and the other Arab states will
probably attend, although they had been led to believe Peiping
would not be invited. Jordan apparently fears the expense of
Darticioation. however
I22,11, while preferring that no confer-
ence be held, will find it cllificult to refuse if other Near East-
ern states accept. Cambodia is likely to be pressed by India
to accept.
Thailand has already indicated hostility
to the Asian-African meeting, while Japan is seeking American
guidance, The Philippines is noncommittal, but there are indica-
tions that it will attend with reluctance. These reactions are not
definitive, but they indicate a feeling among a number of the in-
vitees that acceptance of the invitationmight be the lesser of
two evils.
2. Indians said to have dominated Colombo powers conference:
Nehru and his principal adviser on
foreign affairs, Krishna Menon, domi-
nated the recent Colombo powers confer-
ence in Indonesia, since they were the
only delegates who seemed to know what they wanted, according
to the British embassy in Djakarta. Of the 17 points made in the
final communiqu�13 were adopted from Nehru's brief.
Pakistan's Mohammed Ali "did well" in
obtaining an invitation for Japan and in blocking Nehru's desire to
make some official reference to "peaceful coexistence." The other
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three premiers, however, contributed little or nothing. The
conference ended in a generally friendly atmosphere, although
Nehru appeared somewhat disappointed with the results and
Kotelawala of Ceylon indicated that the meeting only "made the
best of a bad job."
Comment: The most important result
of this meeting was the inviTarron to Communist China to attend
the Asian African conference scheduled to be held in Indonesia
next April. Unless other countries, particularly those friendly
to the West, are represented by dynamic personalities bearing
concrete proposals, Peiping is likely to steal the show.
3. Yugoslav-USSR trade talks reported having difficulties:
The trade talks in Moscow between
representatives of the USSR and Yugo-
slavia are not going well, according to
Yugoslav counselor of state Kopcok.
He told the American embassy that this was no surprise, as it
was clear from the beginning that the USSR would insist on cer-
tain strategic materials, and that, in the face of repeated Soviet
demands for copper, the Yugoslav delegation had been advised
by its government that "not one gram" would be made available.
The Yugoslav government considers
Soviet attempts to dislodge Belgrade from its earlier position on
strategic goods as politically motivated, and not related to eco-
nomic considerations.
Comment: Kopcok's statements probably
represent in part an attempt to allay any suspicions regarding
Yugoslavia's Western alignment. It is quite possible that Moscow
has attempted for political reasons to take advantage of the criti-
cal Yugoslav economic situation to force Belgrade to abandon its
policy of co-operation with Western strategic export controls.
Belgrade, however, has in general complied with Western export
controls.
If satisfactory terms can be negotiated,
the Yugoslays are undoubtedly willing to conclude a one-year gov-
ernment trade agreement substantially in excess of the 1 October
arrangement, which called for a total exchange of 0,000,000 dur-
ing the last three months of 1954.
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4,, Trilateral arrangement may supplant Sino-Ceylonese rice-rubber
deal:
Burmese premier U Nu has proposed a
trilateral trade agreement to supersede
the five-year Sino-Ceylonese rice-rubber
agreement under which Ceylon supplies
Peiping with 50,000 tons of rubber for 2702000 tons of Chinese
rice annually, according to the Ceylonese prime minister.
Under the proposed procedure, Burma
would purchase Ceylonese rubber and resell it to Communist
China, while the Burmese would supply rice to Ceylon. The
Ceylonese minister of agriculture will go to Rangoon shortly to
negotiate details of the agreement.
U Nu is reported to have said that Chou
En-lai informed him Peiping was willing to cancel the Ceylon
agreement if Burma would be responsible for delivery of the rub-
ber.
Comment: All three countries would
appear to gain from this arrangement: Burma hopes to sell a
larger amount of rice than under its current contracts with China
and Ceylon; the latter two countries would save a little on trans-
portation costs. Ceylon also presumably hopes to become eligi-
ble again for American aid under the terms of the Battle Act.
Peiping would further one of its objec-
tives in southern Asia by implicating Burma in a large-scale
violation of the UN embargo against Communist China. (Con-
curred in by ORB)
FAR EAST
5. Japan outlines measures for increasing Orbit trade:
The new Japanese government will "not
betray its obligations to the United States,"
but will maximize trade with the Orbit
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Comment: The Hatoyama government
has begun to effect its policy for expanding trade by giving its
unofficial blessing to and facilitating the travel of a delegation
from the fishing industry and a trade mission to Peiping this
month. Shozo Murata, chief of the influential International Trade
Promotion Association, heads the trade mission which will nego-
tiate the exchange of trade representatives as well as trade agree-
ments. He is reported to have the government's approval to in-
vite a Chinese trade mission to Japan.
6. Increased military need for oil in East China indicated:
Comment: Oil products to be shipped
by road in Communist China are usually put up in 53-gallon drums,
owing to the shortage of tank trucks. Empty oil drums shipped
down the Yangtze to Shanghai are normally filled there by the oil-
distributing agency and returned to Central or Southwest China.
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The recent consignments to the East
China Military District indicate an increased military need to
transport oil in areas of East China not served by railroads, or
to stockpile oil there for future operations. One such area is
the coast opposite Formosa and the offshore islands. (Concurred
in by ORR)
SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. Vietnamese premier approaches showdown with Binh Xuyen:
The gambling concession of the Binh
Xuyen gangster organization expires
on 15 January and Premier Diem does
not intend to renew it. This may re-
sult in the sabotage of Saigon's public utilities by the Binh Xuyen,
according to reports reaching the American embassy.
The acting French commissioner gen-
eral has expressed concern over these reports, especially since
an atmosphere of unrest already exists as a result of the pro-
longed strike of 14,000 Vietnamese civil employees of the French
army in the Saigon area.
General Collins believes there is some
basis for French concern over the Vietnamese army's ability to
handle both the strikers and the Binh Xuyen at the same time.
Comment: The Binh Xuyen's control of
the Saigon police has severely handicapped Diem in his program
to eliminate corruption. He is apparently determined, however,
to make an issue of the notorious Saigon gambling concession.
The French high commissioner and Gen-
eral Ely have recommended that Paris grant 800,000,000 francs
to settle the civil employees' strike.
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EASTERN EUROPE
8. Heightened public tension in Poland reported:
Evidence of heightened public tension
in Poland is shown in an unusual spate
of rumors on the likelihood or even
imminence of war, the possibility of
a governmental shake-up, and the probability of a currency de-
valuation, according to the American embassy in Warsaw.
Comment: Orbit threats to take drastic
countermeasures in retaliation for the rearming of West Germany
have also brought public tension to a high point in Czechoslovakia
and Rumania. These governments are taking no steps to calm
public opinion, and it is even likely that such rumors were offi-
cially inspired as part of the Orbit campaign against French and
German ratification of the Paris accords.
These rumors also may have been
launched to condition the public for measures to be taken follow
ing the ratification of the accords and the rearming of West
Germany. On 30 December, representatives of the parliaments
of Poland, East Germany and Czechoslovakia reiterated their
determination to "take all steps considered necessary for safe-
guarding their independence and the integrit of their frontiers."
LATIN AMERICA
9. Remon assassination seen prelude to "Central American flare-up":
infqrmed the American embassy in Caracas
on 3 January that he considers the assassina-
tion of Panamanian president Remon the
prelude to a "Central American flare-up." He also stated that Remon
had reported to Venezuelan president Perez Jimenez two weeks ago
that Cuban gunmen were planning to kill both Perez and Somoza.
Nicaraguan dictator Somoza also had had a report of a planned at-
tempt on Remon.
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Comment: The Venezuelan and Nicara-
guan dictators may use Remon's murder to Justify intensified
efforts to eliminate Costa Rican president Figueres. Travel of
Venezuelan military personnel to Nicaragua has increased re-
cently and a shipment of Venezuelan arms is expected to arrive
in Nicaragua this month.
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