CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02989044
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 13, 1955

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13 January 1955
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Copy No. 79
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE�
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 8/1/80 REVIEWER.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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1.
SUMMARY
GENERAL
FAR EAST
2. Japan Communist Party's new policy causing concern in Tokyo
(page 3).
3. Hammarskjold guardedly optimistic over airmen's case (page 4).
4. Nationalist ability to supply Tachens severely limited (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Movement for independence gains in the Sudan (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on possible alteration in East German economic plans
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Britain to cut defense budget (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Antigovernment plotting in Guatemala may involve army (page 8).
13 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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1.
GENERAL
FAR EAST
2. Japan Communist Party's new policy causing concern in Tokyo:
13 Jan 55
Japanese officials feel that the Japan
Communist Party's new policy of appear-
ing to minimize underground activities
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
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and of supporting all sympathetic forces will help to camouflage
much of the party's activities behind the legitimate efforts of
labor unions and political groups. This will create a much more
difficult control problem for the Japanese government. The Com-
munist strategy calls for specific agreements with the Socialists
"and the like" under which each party to the agreement will re-
tain autonomy and the right of criticism.
the Japan Communist Party, confident that its covert apparatus
and discipline are perfected, is ordering most of its high-level
leaders who went underground in 1950 to take an openly active part
in the coming election.
Comment:
the Japan Communist Party is already establishing liaison with
Japan's largest labor federation, and is intensifying its efforts to
infiltrate the Left Socialist Party. Recognizing their own impo-
tence at the polls, the Communists have apparently decided their
objective of weakening Japan's ties with the United States can best
�be accomplished by influencing the Left Socialist Party and other
neutralist groups.
The tactics of the Japan Communist
Party correspond with those currently being employed by the
international Communist movement.
3. Hammarskj old guardedly optimistic over airmen's case:
UN secretary general Hammarskj old
has informed aides in New York that he
is optimistic about the final outcome of
the case of the United Nations personnel
held in China, provided that the case
is iept entirely outside of the political fight in the next few months."
Hammarskjold stressed "the great responsibility" now resting on
the American administration.
Comment: Hammarskjold's message
supports earlier indications that Peiping intends to hold for some
time at least the 11 American airmen sentenced as "spies," but
that Chou En-lai left room for a later settlement.
13 Jan 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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Hammarskjold's hope for restrained pub-
lic comment on the airmen's case presumably derives from Pei-
ping's insistence that it will not be "intimidated" into releasing
the airmen, and from Chinese Communist statements that the cases
might be "reviewed"
4. Nationalist ability to supply Tachens severely limited:
Chinese Communist air raids on the
Tachens have demonstrated the vulner-
ability of Chinese Nationalist ships sup-
plying the islands, according to the
American army attache on Formosa.
NatioRalist antiaircraft defenses are "entirely ineffective." Ships
which can move in and out of the Tachen harbor only during high
tide are helpless while anchored in the harbor.
Officials of the American Military Assist-
ance Advisory Group on the Tachens report that supply levels on
the islands are sufficient for 30 to 60 days. Water is no longer
a serious problem, as there are now enough wells to sustain the
garrison.
Comment: Supply of the Tachen garri-
son will become increasingly difficult if the Communists continue
their air attacks on Nationalist shipping in the area. Smaller
islands in the Tachen group held by guerrilla forces will be par-
ticularly difficult for the Nationalists to hold, since few are self-
sufficient in food and water. The Nationalist navy has recom-
mended the withdrawal of the 850 guerrilla troops from the Yushan
Islands, 35 miles northwest of the Tachens.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Movement for independence gains in the Sudan:
Sudanese premier Azhari's National
� Unionist Party, sponsored by Egypt, is
threatened with disintegration as a
13 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
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result of the recent series of pro-
independence moves by important polit-
ical figures in the Sudan. This suggests
that the party may renounce its support
of union of the Sudan with Egypt at its
14 January meeting.
The American liaison officer in Khartoum
reports that Mubarak Zarroug, an official of the National Unionist
Party, has reached a tentative agreement with pro-independence
leaders to promote independence for the Sudan before the meeting
of the constituent assembly. Under the terms of the Anglo-
Egyptian accord on the future of the Sudan, a constituent assem-
bly, to be elected before 19579 would decide between complete
independence and union of the Sudan with Egypt.
Any such change of policy by the National
Unionist Party would eliminate all chances of union with Egypt,
and would probably have severe political repercussions in Cairo,
where the Nasr regime is fully committed to obtaining union of
the two countries.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on possible alteration in East German economic plans:
Walter Ulbricht, first secretary of the
East German Communist Party, issued
a propaganda directive to local party exec-.
utives on 4 December which suggests that
some adjustments in the economy of the German Democratic Repub-
lic are anticipated to provide for the additional economic burden of
armaments production and an increase in the military establishment.
The directive said that as a result of the Moscow conference on
European security, "necessary additions are being made" to the
decisions of the fourth party congress, which reaffirmed the poli-
cies of the new course.
The establishment of an East German
army following ratification of the Paris agreements would require
altering the present investment policy, which emphasizes consumers'
13 Jan 55
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goods industries and agriculture. However, reducing the
presently inadequate production of consumers' goods or rais-
ing taxes and workers' quotas to finance urgent armaments un-
dertakings would adversely affect the morale of labor and lead
to still lower productivity and efficiency.
East Germany was the only Satellite
lacking a regular army establishment at the time it inaugurated
the new course. The necessity of readjusting its economy now
to support national armed forces would require aid from the rest
of the Orbit or abandonment of some of the new course economic
program.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Britain to cut defense budget:
Britain's defense budget for the fiscal
year beginning 1 April 1955 will total
1, 527 million pounds sterling ($4,276
million), according to Minister of
e ense aro acmi an. For, the present fiscal year, 1,640
million pounds ($4,592 million) was voted, but only about150
million pounds ($4,340 million) will probably be Spent.
The new estimates are carefully calcu-
lated in order to avoid the underspending characteristic of the
last two years, Since American aid reflected in the budget will
drop from about $238,000,000 to perhaps $56,000,000, the burden
on the British taxpayer will be slightly increased,
Comment: The slight reduction confirms
earlier forecasts that while the British are changing over to a new
defense strategy, spending will be temporarily less, When the
shift is completed, probably in two or three years, defense budg-
ets are expected to be as high as, or higher than, the present
level.
Should the general election take place this
year, as is widely expected, the Cqnservatives will be able to make
political capital of the fact that the total defense budget will be lower.
It fulfills a promise made by the government last April.
13 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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LATIN AMERICA
8. Antigovernment plotting in Guatemala may involve army:
Comment: Unrest is growing in Guatemala,
both in the army and among the civilian groups backing Castillo.
There are numerous rumors of an imminent attempt against the
government, but no evidence that a coup is near.
There is no other information on a plan
to kill Monzon. He has been in quiet retirement since leaving the
government in September, and is believed still loyal to Castillo,
His death, however, might quickly be blamed on Castillo and could
lead to a violent reaction in the army, where he still has a con-
siderable following.
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