CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/02/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993970
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 3, 1954

3.3(h)(2) 3 February 1954 3.5(c)
0.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Approved for Mle_:412993.;,)77/0,
Copy No. 84
DOCUMENT NO 40
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2 0.03._.
AUTH: HR 70.2
DATE:
AL
Office of Current Intelligence
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-T-6112-SEGRE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. Chiang Kai-shek concerned over American aid to Japan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French see Viet Minh move into Laos as effort to improve negotiating
position (page 3).
3. French-Vietnamese situation in Tonkin delta worsening (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. India reportedly may act unilaterally to end Kashmir stalemate
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian Communists make no independent election effort (page 5).
6. Saudi Arabian king urges strong measures against Israel (page 6).
7. Egypt willing to compromise on Suez transit (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav trade agency reportedly prepared to arrange East-West
deals (page 7).
9.
WESTERN EUROPE
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FAR EAST
I. Chiang Kai-shek concerned over American aid to Japan:
Chiang Kai-shek, in recent conversations
with American visitors to Formosa, has
raised questions about Japanese rearmament
and military aid to Indochina, He was obvi-
ously concerned that aid to other Far Eastern nations might increase
more rapidly than that to the Nationalist government.
In the opinion of Ambassador Rankin, Chinese
officials fear that American interest in Formosa is decreasing, that
Nationalist China may lose prestige by being treated as Japan's inferior,
and that the United States cannot assure that Japan will not again become
an aggressor.
Comment: Nationalist leaders have long
been apprehensive that American interest will be concentrated on other
Far Eastern governments to the detriment of Formosa's security and
Nationalist hopes of returning to the mainland. This concern has been
stimulated recently by South Korean president Rhee's statements that
Japan has aggressive designs.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French see Viet Minh move into Laos as effort to improve negotiating
position:
men s of t
confirme4
a concentrated enemy drive toward
Luang Prabang is probable and could prove
critical. The southward movement of ele-
Viet Minh 308th Division from Dien Bien Phu has been
the current
campaign is designed to gain a maximum of territory and propaganda
victories at minimum cost in order to pave the way for negotiations
with the French, and that extensive Viet Minh gains might tip the scales
in favor of those elements in France and Indochina who strongly advocate
a negotiated peace.
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Comment: French officials in Indochina
have recently argued, though without convincing evidence, that the
Wet Minh has an overriding desire for a negotiated peace. The Viet
Minh's strategy for the past three years has appeared to be that of
expanding the territory under its control without seriously risking
its regular forces.
3. French-Vietnamese situation in Tonkin delta worsening:
Sabotage and terrorism in the Tonkin delta
are increasing, according to the American
consul in Hanoi. On 31 January a troop
train en route to Hanoi from Haiphong was
blown up, and five DC-3's were sabotaged at an airfield near Haiphong.
The Tonkin commander had previously expressed concern that the send-
ing of reserve parachute battalions to central Laos had weakened his
air base security.
A ranking French official in Tonkin believes
the Wet Minh will undertake a still wider program of terrorism, par-
ticularly against occidentals, and will intensify efforts to sabotage criti-
cal installations. At the same time, the enemy will step up its more
conventional military activities throughout the delta.
Comment: The French mobile reserve in
the delta, already reduced from 45 battalions to 19, faces the prospect
of a further drain to meet the developing threat in northern Laos. The
Wet Minh, on the other hand, has since mid-January increased its regu-
lar strength in the delta from 9 to 18 battalions and in addition has some
50,000 irregulars there.
SOUTH ASIA
4. India reportedly may act unilaterally to end Kashmir stalemate:
The American embassy reports that on 3 Febru-
ary the government of Indian-held Kashmir will
probably ratify the Indo-Kashmiri agreement of
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July 1952 formalizing many of India's relationships with that state.
The embassy adds that there is a "strong possibility" that action
will also be taken to ratify Kashmir's accession to India, to argue
that this eliminates the need for a plebiscite, and to pave the way
for withdrawal of the Kashmir case from the UN Security Council.
Comment: India probably will make no
move to withdraw the Kashmir case from the Security Council, since
it recognizes that both Pakistan's and the council's consent would be
required to do so legally. It is likely either to beg the question of a
plebiscite or, as in the past, indicate that all decisions are temporary,
pending a final settlement.
Ratification of the agreement would not
change the existing stalemate on Kashmir. Both India and the Kashmiri
government have consistently maintained that Kashmir is an integral
part of India, and India has already taken many steps to consolidate its
position there.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Iranian Communists make no independent election effort:
The Tudeh notified its members on 18 Janu-
ary that it would run no candidates in the
Majlis elections, since the Zahedi government
"will undoubtedly prevent the election of party
members,"
It reportedly decided, however, that a boycott
of the elections would be unwise and that it would cooperate with "pro-
gressive elements of the National Front," although the latter did not
consent to form a coalition.
Comment: The elections are half over and
Tudeh support of the National Front has so far had no effect. The more
than 50 government candidates elected have met no significant opposition,
thanks to a coordinated plan for rigging the elections.
The Tudeh's efforts,
are devoted more to strengthening its underground
organization than to overt political activities.
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6. Saudi Arabian king urges strong measures gainst Israel:
Comment: Saud's call for action against
Israel will not be given serious considerati n in official Arab circles,
but it will promote Israeli efforts to halt Western arming of the Arab
countries.
7. Egypt willing to compromise on Suez transit:
Abdul Razek, Egyptian UN delegate, told an
American diplomat on 1 February that Egypt
is not against "free passage of the Suez Canal"
and is anxious to prove "its good faith." He
asked American support for postponement of
Security Council consideration of Israel's com-
plaint against restrictions on Suez shipping
until Egypt can prepare its case.
The Egyptian foreign minister in Cairo told
Ambassador Caffery on 30 Sanuary that Egypt would suspend its recent
decree extending its blockade if Israel would drop its charges in the
Security Council,
Comment: Egypt has never complied with
the Security Council resolution of September 1951 calling for free passage
of all shipping through the Suez Canal. Its present attitude apparently
stems from a desire to avoid international debate which could complicate
its efforts to reach a settlement with Britain.
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EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav trade agency reportedly prepared to arrange East-West deals:
now in a position to arrange transit trade with Soviet bloc
coun ries via Yugoslavia.
Comment A high Foreign Ministry official
stated in an interview on 31 December that if the USSR proposed the
establishment of trade relationships between Yugoslavia and the Soviet
bloc, the Yugoslays would approach such a proposal with cautious opti-
mism and with the hope that resumption of nonstrategic trade would
relieve international tension.
It is possible that this report reflects an
Actual shift in Yugoslavia's economic policy, which has heretofore
allowed no trade with the Soviet bloc.
WESTERN EUROPE
9.
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