CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/02/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993983
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 19, 1954

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19 February 1954
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO,
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I....I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 004,9
ALITH: HR 70-4s
DATE: '01_ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. japan modifies exclusion policy toward Soviet traders (page 3).
2. Comment on politburos report to Chinese Communist Party (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3.
4. Need for French military initiative tn lnaocrnna e
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Israel interested in Swedish jet aircraft (page 5).
. Iraq accepts invitation to join Turkish-Pakistani pact (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Possible Czech attempt to assassinate Bogomolov (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Communists reportedly influence Brazilian position for Caracas
(page 7).
lg. Costa Rica renews threat to boycott Inter-American Conference
11,
ake 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Japan modifies exclusion policy toward Soviet traders:
The Yoshida government, modifying its
former exclusion policy, has announced that it will permit the entry
of Soviet traders when investigation confirms the necessity for the
visit. This action reportedly was taken because of Japan's need to
expand foreign trade and to compete with trading conditions prevail-
ing in Western Europe.
This move may indicate a switch by the
Japanese government from rather passive toleration of trade with
the Soviet bloc to active support and promotion, and will probably
serve as a precedent for similar action toward Communist China.
The political principle of exclusion, based
on the technically continuing state of war, was apparently outweighed
by the economic advantages involved. There is, however, no indica-
tion that Japan intends to violate Western trade controls.
2. Comment on politburo's report to Chinese Communist Party:
The Political Bureau's report to a plenary
session of the Chinese Communist Party's central committee held
from 6 to 10 February indicates that the party's current "reorgani-
zation" will, in its final phase this year, extend to the leadership.
The - report was read by Vice Chat:rmanl Liu, Shao,-c14, ap Chairman
Mao Tse-tung was "taking a holiday."
The report states that a "party conference"
will be held later this year. This probably means a national congress
to elect a new central committee. Such an election could be expected
to formalize the rise in recent years of several new leaders and the
removal from power of certain central committee members whose
status has been in doubt for some time.
The politburo's resolution on "strengthening
party unity" may indicate an intention to stage a public purge. In the
past, however, Mao has chosen to deal with those in his disfavor by
demoting them quietly within the party structure.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
3,
4. Need for French military initiative in Indochina emphasized:
French foreign minister Bidault, following
talks with Secretary Dulles on 17 February
in Berlin, promised to urge vigorously in
Paris that General Navarre undertake a
maximum military effort between now and the end of the Indochina
dry season in June. Pointing out the possibility of negotiations on
Indochina, Dulles stressed that the Viet Minh would probably stage
an all-out campaign to gain the best possible military position before
peace talks begin, as did the North Koreans in similar circumstances.
Comment: It would be difficult, because
of the wide dispersal of French troops and continued Viet Minh pressure
throughout the whole area, for the French forces to concentrate now for
a maximum effort.
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There have been reports from Indochina
that the French have avoided heavy casualties on orders from Paris.
It is unlikely that such orders would be reversed now with negotiations
scheduled for late April.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Israel interested in Swedish jet aircraft:
The American air attach�n Tel Aviv
reports that
Israel is interested in purchasing
18 of the I-29 jet fighters recently offered
by Sweden. The price of the planes, which are considered comparable
to the MIG-15, is to be approximately-$165,000 each.
Comment: Britain also is offering to sell
seven jet fighters to Israel. The United States has objected to these
sales, but both Sweden and Britain have indicated that the offers will
not be withdrawn. If these purchases are completed, Israel will have
approximately 40 jet aircraft.
Purchase of this number of jets will impose
an additional strain on Israers defense budget, and will stimulate a desire
on the part of the Arab states, which now have a combined total of some
60 jets, for further acquisitions.
6. Iraq accepts invitation to join Turkish-Pakistani pact:
Iraqi prime minister Jamali enthusiastically
accepted an invitation on 16 February from
the Turkish ambassador in Baghdad to co-
operate with Turkey and Pakistan in develop-
ing an area security arrangement. In answer
to the ambassador's query, Jamali stated that
only the Communists and the Independence
Party would oppose the action.
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Radio Baghdad shortly thereafter broadcast
a report on the meeting, apparently as a trial balloon to test public
reaction to inclusion of Iraq in a Turkish-Pakistani pact.
Comment: jamali s bold action may be
aimed at maintaining himself in power. He is supported by the king,
but has not had the full support of ex-prime minister Nun i Said, who
controls parliament. jamali's quick acceptance of the pact is apparently
aimed at obtaining the support of Nun, who favors such an agreement.
In attempting to lead Iraq into the proposed
Turkish-Pakistani pact, Iamali faces serious Arab League opposition
and possibly a violent popular reaction.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Possible Czech attempt to assassinate Bogomolov:
An attempt to assassinate the former Soviet
ambassador to Czechoslovakia, Alexander Bogomolov, may have been
made on 16 February near the Czech-Austrian border as he was en route
by train to his new post in Rome. Bogomolov and his wife apparently
returned unexpectedly to Prague on the same date.
According to Vienna press reports an
explosion aboard Bogomolov's private railway car injured one person
but did not harm the ambassador. A Czech stationmaster later stated
that a stove in the galley had exploded. The initial Czech statement to
the Italian legation in Prague attributed interruption of Bogomolov's
journey to an "accident" which occurred to the car's conductor-attendant.
A later statement claimed that the attendant had merely become "ill."
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WESTERN EUROPE
8.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Communists reportedly influence Brazilian position for Caracas:
The Brazilian delegation to the Inter-
American Conference in Caracas carries
instructions drawn up under Communist
influence
that Finance Minister Aranha may be able to get President Vargas
to modify them.
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Comment:
Leite Ribeiro headed a Communist cell in
e mtmstry. Leite reportedly adheres to the Communist line and
associates with important Communists, but is not known to be a
party member.
10. Costa Rica renews threat to boycott Inter-American Conference:
Costa Rican foreign minister Esquivel told
Ambassador Hill on 17 February that the
cabinet had voted not to send a delegation
to the Inter-American Conference. He
added, however, that he had obtained a 48-hour stay on the decision,
which will be reversed if 60 specified political prisoners in Venezuela
are released or there is a prospect of their release.
Comment: This new Costa Rican demarche,
although much stronger and more specific than the one of 4 February,
could still be a bluff designed to force the United States to bring pres-
sure on the Venezuelan government, which has imprisoned numerous
members of the opposition. Many other members have been given
asylum by Costa Rica.
11.
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