CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/02/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993984
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 20, 1954

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0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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SUMMARY
, GENERAL
FAR EAST
2. R,hee acquiesces to Geneva conference (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
refers to airfield construction (page 4).
comment on Lieneral Navarre's statement in Saigon (page 4).
widening split within Burmese government
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Near Eastern reaction to notification of impending Turkish-Pakistani
agreement (page 6).
8. Eden sees possibility of British concession on Suez (page 7).
9. British hope to improve anti-Mau Mau campaign (page 7),
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Slim chance for EDC prior to Geneva says Laniel (page 8).
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FAR EAST
2. Rhee acquiesces to Geneva conference:
President Rhee's reaction to the Berlin
arrangements for the Geneva conference
was one "more in sorrow than in anger,"
and he did not express opposition in princi-
ple, according to Ambassador Briggs.
The president expressed dismay, however,
over the additional delay in the unification of Korea and repeated his
long-standing conviction that any conference on Korea will fail. He
stated that he would go along with it if his "American friends" insisted.
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Comment: Rhee's attitude contrasts with
the angry denunciations of the Berlin decision by the South Korean press
and government information office. This apparent inconsistency is prob-
ably designed to demonstrate that South Korea is being forced into the
conference by American pressure. If Seoul is dissatisfied with decisions
reached at Geneva, the onus can thus be placed on the United States.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Viet Minh
airfield construction:
Comment: There had been no previous evi-
dence of Viet Minh airfield construction, although many former French
fields are now in enemy hands. The persistence since 1950 of reports
of the training of Viet Minh pilots and mechanics in China points to the
possibility that there is now a small insurgent air force.
4. Comment on General Navarre's statement in Saigon:
General Navarre's statement to the press in
Saigon on 19 February that his forces face a stalemate and he does not
�
expect to be able to inflict' decisive defeat on the enemy next year ap-
pears to be a public acknowledgment that the Navarre plan, as originally
conceived, has been abandoned. The plan called for the build-up of
French Union forces and the clearing of rear areas this year in the
expectation that in 1955 the back of the Viet Minh resistance could be
broken.
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Several times, even during the past few
days, Navarre has told American officials that enemy action has not
been such as to prevent him from moving forward on schedule.
His apparent reversal, coming immediately
after the big-power decision to meet with representatives of Communist
China and "other interested states" may well have a devastating effect
on Vietnamese morale, making the development of an effective national
army virtually impossible.
Navarre's sudden pessimism apparently
reflects the desire of the French government to attain a settlement
through the opportunity offered by the Geneva conference.
widening split within Burmese government:
Comment: Since Ba Swe joined the govern-
ment in 1952 there have been recurrent reports that he was in contact
with the Communists,
In view of the declining military
fortunes of the Communists, they could be expected to react favorably to
any proposal by the opportunistic Ba Swe that they participate in the over-
throw of the present government.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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7. Near Eastern reaction to notification of impending Turkish-Pakistani
agreement:
Initial reactions of representatives of
Greece, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and India were generally
mild when they were informed by Turkish officials of an impending
Turkish-Pakistani cooperation agreement immediately preceding
release on 19 February of the official communique announcing the
pact. Prior publicity had prepared most nations for the notification,
and reactions followed predicted patterns.
Neither Greece nor Yugoslavia indicated
any fear that their tripartite pact with Turkey would be jeopardized.
Iraqi prime minister Jamali enthusiastically welcomed an invitation
to adhere to the agreement. Iranian reaction was noncommittal,
though the foreign minister was glad that other states could adhere
to the pact later. The Afghan foreign minister foresaw continued hope
for improvement of relations with Pakistan.
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A.
The Indian ambassador in Ankara
reiterated arguments previously advanced in opposition to the
pact, while the general secretary of the Indian Ministry of
External Affairs merely stated that the agreement would not
improve Indo-Turkish relations.
8. Eden sees possibility of British concession on Suez:
Foreign Secretary Eden told Secretary
Dulles on 17 February that if Egypt would
agree that an attack by an outside power
on Turkey and Iran would be among the
circumstances under which the Suez base would become automatically
available to Britain, he personally would be willing to make a conces-
sion on the question of uniforms.
Eden stated, however, that he could not be
confident of Churchill% views until after his return to London.
Comment: Egypt and Britain agree that
the base should become automatically available to Britain in case of
an outside attack on an Arab League member. Egypt has rejected
the additional British proposal of automatic availability upon a find-
ing by the UN that there is a threat to the peace or an act of aggres,.
sion.
Nasr reportedly has the approval of the
Revolutionary Command Council for making the base automatically
available in case of an attack on Turkey, but he has refused to con-
sider the inclusion of Iran.
9. British hope to improve anti-Mau Mau campaign:
The British War Office states that
Colonial Secretary Lyttelton and
Field Marshal Harding will go to
Kenya in late February to study means
of improving the lagging campaign against
the spreading Mau Mau terrorist movement.
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The American army attach�n London
comments that there is apparent friction between the governor
general and the military commander in Kenya, and that the military
commander will probably be given more authority. He adds, however,
that there are no plans at present for further troop reinforcements.
Comment: As recently as last October
the military commander in Kenya stated that the Mau Mau problem
is a political rather than a military one.
Criticism of London's handling of the Kenya
situation has lately increased not only in British parliamentary circles
but also among the settler group,
WESTERN EUROPE
10, Slim chance for EDC prior to Geneva, says Laniel;
French premier Laniel, according to his
executive secretary, is still determined
to secure EDC ratification as soon as
possible, but fears that if he set a date
now for parliamentary debate his government would "most certainly
fall."
Although La,niel will try to secure ratifi-
cation by Easter, he considers the prospects extremely slim pending
the outcome of any scheduled great-power talks on Indochina. He also
feels that the final debate cannot be initiated until France has received
satisfaction on its preconditions for EDC, particularly a Saar settlement.
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