CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/02/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993986
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 24, 1954

pproved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986 e
�10P--S-EGR-E=1-=
24 February 1954
Copy No, 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. qtere
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
r.: DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:m o 0_9
AUTH: FIR 7C/e-s2,01`)
DATE: SAT\.-3 REVIEWER'
Crt
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
--4
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
A.
SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Communists at Geneva to emphasize foreign troop withdrawal
from Korea (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Rhee assumes direct control of new Joint Chiefs of Staff (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. General Navarre sees his plan proceeding on schedule (page 4).
4. French officials say Ho Chi Minh still alive (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan hopes eventually to join Turkish-Pakistani pact (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Egypt offers military aid to Sudan (page 6).
7. Moroccan terrorists reportedly plan to assassinate sultan (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Ousting of Brazilian labor minister by army pressure predicted
(page 7).
NOTE:
2
Tor SECREt
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
24 Feb 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986 joli
GENERAL
1. Communists at Geneva to emphasize foreign troop withdrawal from Korea:
Communist negotiators at Panmunjom told
on 19 February that the
purpose of the Geneva conference is to arrange
the speedy withdrawal of all foreign forces
from Korea and that all Chinese troops will
be withdrawn.
The Communists also indicated they might
submit a unification proposal calling for a provisional government based
on a joint assembly of the North and South Korean legislatures. They
conceded, however, that the selection of a head of state for a uniTied
Korea would be "extremely difficult."
expressed the opinion that the
Communists are interested in unification only on their own terms and
that in the event of withdrawal of foreign troops they would attempt to
take over South Korea "by infiltration, subversion, and disorder."
Comment: The standard Communist position
is that the Korean problem�ihould be settled by the Koreans themselves
after all foreign troops have withdrawn. By pressing for immediate
withdrawal, and by opposing attempts to make it contingent on unifica-
tion, the Communists would be in a good position to impede discussion
of unification at Geneva.
An agreement on joint withdrawals would offer
the Communists substantial advantages, both by ridding the northeast
Asian mainland of American troops and by reducing international pressure
for a negotiated unification of Korea.
FAR EAST
. Rhee assumes direct control of new Joint Chiefs of Staff:
Seoul radio on 18 February broadcast changes
in a presidential order which place the new
Joint Chiefs of Staff under direct command
of President Rhee. In the original concept,
the JCS was subordinate to the defense minister.
-3-
24 Feb 54
Tar SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Verge J. 16.0 A
Comment: This move places the top
military organ firmly in Rhee's hands, and is in keeping with the
president's recent maneuvers to gain greater control over the army.
The order may also be an effort to offset the political ambitions of
the new army chief of staff, General Chong Il-kwon.
Recent top-level command changes by
Rhee complicate the chain of command and may make it more diffi-
cult for the United Nations Command to control the South Korean army.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. General Navarre sees his plan proceeding on schedule:
In a briefing for Governor Stassen on
20 February, General Navarre stated
that the schedule and scope of his plan
were unaffected by recent military de-
velopments in Laos. He said that he had expected the present cam-
paign season to be difficult since the opposing forces are more or
less in balance, but he anticipated that his present clearing operations
would enable him to throw an expanded force against the Viet Minh
next fall.
Navarre said the enemy could not attack
Luang Prabang with any chance of success and that it would suffer
heavy losses if it were to strike at Muong Sai. In view of their supply
difficulties, Navarre "felt rather certain" that Viet Minh forces would
be recalled from northern Laos to attack Dien Bien Phu.
Comment: Navarre's estimate regarding
prospects for the future is in accord with others he has made recently.
Early reports of a press conference on 19 February (see item 4 of
Current Intelligence Bulletin, 20 February) stated, apparently errone-
ously, that Navarre had been pessimistic and had said that he did not
expect to be able to inflict decisive defeat on the Viet Minh next year.
4
24 Feb 54
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
vor, a. LI
A.
4. French officials say Ho Chi Minh still alive:
They base their con-
viction, however, solely on Viet Minh radio statements of Ho's
presence at key political or propaganda meetings.
The reporting office comments that the
veneration of Ho in Viet Minh propaganda both for internal and ex-
ternal consumption continues undiminished, and that in view of the
impending Geneva negotiations, it is doubtful that Communist leaders
would pursue this build-up if Ho were dead.
Comment: Ho Chi Minh was last seen by
a non-Communist in May 1947, but an editor of the New York Daily
Worker claims to have interviewed him in March of last year. Ho's
public statements are almost invariably broadcast in Morse. In the
rare cases of voice broadcasts, it has not been possible to determine
whether or not the speaker was actually Ho.
SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan hopes eventually to join Turkish-Pakistani pact:
The Afghan ambassador in Washington
stated on 18 February that Afghanistan
would wish to join an association such as
that now being discussed between Pakistan
an ur ey, if and when it settled its differences with Pakistan. The
ambassador added, however, that in this event Afghanistan would ask
the United States to guarantee its frontiers, since it could not jeopardize
its security simply for military aid.
Comment: Afghanistan's 1931 treaty with
the USSR, automatically renewed each year, forbids either party to
enter a political or military agreement which might be directed against
the other. Afghanistan would probably not be willing to denounce or
violate this treaty without firm guarantees and substantial foreign
military aid.
5
24 Feb 54
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
vtio.
The Afghans may be expected to
continue to explore the possibility of extracting benefits from
a Turkish-Pakistani pact, however, and as a result are likely
to make additional moves toward settling their Pushtoonistan
dispute with Pakistan.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Egypt offers military aid to Sudan:
President Nagib has announced that
Egypt will give the Sudanese defense
force five training planes and arms for
1,000 men on the convening on 1 March
of the Sudan's first parliament.
Egypt will also offer free military train-
ing to Sudanese officers and noncommissioned officers.
Comment: This offer is evidence of
Egypt's intention to extend its influence vigorously in the Sudan.
Egypt's efforts to gain prestige with the
Sudanese army, a 5,000-man force commanded by British officers,
will almost certainly bring strong reactions from Britain.
7. Moroccan terrorists reportedly plan to assassinate sultan:
6
24 Feb 54
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
ttioo 16.0 A-IN../
Security precautions for the sultan's trips
outside his palace have been extremely rigid since the Moroccan
terrorist attempt on his life last September. The French have re-
cently shown greater optimism on their ability to control terrorism,
but the resident general asked the US air force in Morocco to provide
six bullet-proof vests not later than 22 February.
A successful attempt on the sultan's life
would probably provoke widespread disorders and force the French
to undertake a new campaign of repression.
LATIN AMERICA
8. Ousting of Brazilian labor minister by army pressure predicted:
Brazilian president Vargas is expected
to dismiss Labor Minister Goulart as a
result of army pressure.
The American embassy comments that although the situation remains
tense, no disorders are expected.
Comment: Goulart's projected dismissal
suggests that Vargas believes that the army, long opposed to the
opportunistic labor minister, might now be sufficiently aroused to
stage a coup if he were retained. Previously, Vargas, with an eye
to the October congressional elections, had supported Goulart's
efforts to build mass labor support, even with Communist partici-
pation, in order to free the administration from dependence on the
army.
While Goulart's dismissal would normally
be expected to strengthen Finance Minister Aranha, spokesman for
the conservative cabinet members, Vargas' past practice when con-
fronted with serious conflict has been to dismiss the leaders of both
factions.
The selection of General Zenobio da Costa
to replace War Minister Cardoso probably stems from Cardoso's pub-
lic espousal of the recent army protest against Goulart. Zenobio is
generally regarded as more pro-Vargas and has a considerable follow-
ing among the junior officers. He is believed favorably disposed toward
the United States.
- 7 -
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2993986
24 Feb 54