CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/13
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
02993992
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
8
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
March 13, 1954
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689525].pdf | 252.82 KB |
Body:
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13 March 1954
Copy No. 84 �
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Cl DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANCED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20 0 9
AUTH: FIR 70-2
DATE:a72/2/7;9_ REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Are
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Thailand eager to participate in Indochina discussions at Geneva
(page 3).
2. Soviet-Iranian talks reportedly proceeding smoothly (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. New Viet Minh threat to Dien Bien Phu reported (page 4).
4. French reportedly plan early offensive south of Tonkin delta (page 4).
5. French Foreign Ministry official favors negotiations with Ho (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6.. Iranian army officers reportedly submit grievances to shah (page 5).
7. Iraq fears foreign interference in Syria (page 6).
8. Egyptian regime reportedly breaks with top civilian political advisers
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Czechoslovakia asks help to develop coal industry (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
10.
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GENERAL
1. Thailand eager to participate in Indochina discussions at Geneva:
Comment: Thailand, as a cobelligerent,
has accepted an invitation to take part at Geneva in discussions on
Korea. Its eagerness to share in the Indochina discussions reflects
concern that the conference might lead to a French withdrawal and a
Communist victory in Indochina. This possibility has also apparently
stimulated Thailand's interest in closer cooperation with the Associated
States.
2. Soviet-Iranian talks reportedly proceeding smoothly:
Iranian foreign minister Entezam told
Ambassador Henderson on 9 March that
Soviet-Iranian negotiations on border and
financial problems were proceeding more
smoothly since the return of the Soviet ambassador from Moscow.
He said that it was questionable whether the value of the areas now
occupied by the Soviet Union warranted Iran's rejection of an oppor-
tunity to obtain an undisputed border in the north.
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He added that the Soviet negotiators seemed
to think there would be no great difficulty in arranging the release of
Iranian gold credits if border problems were settled. Entezam said
that the USSR had not intimated that it desired to discuss matters other
than those under negotiation.
Comment: While there have been conflict-
ing reports on the status of the negotiations, a settlement of border
questions on these terms would be generally favorable to the USSR.
Moscow successfully negotiated a boundary settlement with Afghanistan
in 1948 and renounced its territorial claims against Turkey in May 1953.
In subsequent discussions concerning the
release of Iranian gold credits, the USSR may inject other matters.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. New Viet Minh threat to Dien Bien Phu reported:
that the Viet
Minh is stockpiling smoke and white phospho-
rus shells around Dien Bien Phu,
/ The French anticipate
that any smoke concentrations would make
their dug-in positions intolerable and have
requested 20,000 gas masks.
Meanwhile,
an unsuccessful enemy attack against one of Dien
Bien Phu,s defensive positions, this
action as probably presaging a general attack.
4. French reportedly plan early offensive south of Tonkin delta:
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Comment: The province of Thanh Hoa
has been a Viet Minh stronghold since 1945, and any successful
French raid there would provide a badly needed response to recent
demonstrations of Viet Minh initiative within the delta. With their
current dispersal of reserves, the French could attempt only a
limited operation against Thanh Hoa, but could be expected to exploit
it in their press releases.
5. French Foreign Ministry official favors negotiations with Ho,
Deputy Political Director Margerie of the
French Foreign Ministry expressed to
American embassy representatives in Paris
on 11 March his agreement with Pierre
Mendes-France's demand for negotiations with Ho Chi Minh, maintain-
ing that "the only way to make peace was to talk with those who were
making war." He said that Foreign Minister Bidault had no enthusiasm
for the Geneva conference, which domestic pressure had forced on him.
The French official also noted that concern
over the Indochina war was far more a parliamentary than a public feel-
ing, since only a relatively few families have men in the professional
military units subject to duty in Indochina.
Comment: Heretofore the French Foreign
Ministry has been opposed to negotiations with the Viet Minh, Since
Bidault is pessimistic on the outcome of Geneva, the Foreign Ministry
may be considering the possibility of post-Geneva negotiations with Ho.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iranian army officers reportedly submit grievances to shah
A group of 20 unit commanders and field
grade officers occupying key positions in
the Tehran area has submitted a list of
grievances and demands to the military
o e delivered to the shah on 11 March,
governor
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The group charges that the general staff
is incompetent and fails to favor pro-shah officers, and that supporters
of Mossadeq, in particular 45 generals, have not been removed. The
removal of Deputy Chief of Staff Akhavi and his supporters is also
demanded.
Comment: The shah may consider that
the officers' protest was inspired by Prime Minister Zahedi, whose
recent criticism of the army and high-ranking officers reportedly
infuriated him. The struggle between the shah and Zahedi could
seriously impair the army's efficiency and its ability to maintain
internal order.
Iraq fears foreign interference in Syria:
Iraq's Prime Minister Jamali told Ambassador
Berry on 11 March he has received reports
that France, Saudi Arabia and the United
States are currently "active" in Syria.
Jamali fears that France is attempting to
re-establish a sphere of influence in Syria with the assistance of other
great powers. He hopes American activity will be directed toward pro-
moting closer relations amongArab states, particularly Iraq and Syria,
rather than toward dividing the Arab world into foreign spheres of
influence.
Comment:
France and Israel are deeply concerned over the possibility
of Iraqi-Syrian union now that Syrian dictator Shishakli has been over-
thrown. Saudi Arabia has long subsidized influential Syrians who oppose
union with Iraq.
lamaWs approach to the United States is
probably aimed at forestalling any American opposition to such a union.
Baghdad is not likely to seek union through force, but extensive maneuver-
ing by Iraq and other interested powers may promote more disorder in
Syria and the area.
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8. Egyptian regime reportedly breaks with top civilian political advisers:
Colonel Nasr has ordered the regime's
official newspaper to attack former premier
Ali Maher,
This decision was made because of Maher's role in promoting
the proclamation on 5 March of elections for a constituent assembly.
His activities are described as those of a "man fishing in troubled waters."
Comment: Ali Maher, four times premier
and outstanding independent political figure, has been considered one
of the council's principal political advisers. A break with him at this
time would place another important civilian leader in opposition to the
regime.
EASTERN EUROPE
Czechoslovakia asks help to develop coal industry:
The Czech delegate to the UN Economic
Commission for Europe, meeting in Geneva,
stated on 11 March that Czechoslovakia
"would like help in the mechanization and rational use" of its coal
mines. Admitting that Czech coal production is inadequate, he sug-
gested to the ECE coal committee that greater attention be given to
a "more rational use of European coal resources and higher produc-
tivity."
According to a Reuters dispatch from Geneva,
Western delegates to the meeting interpreted the Czech action as a "hint"
of advances to be made at the forthcoming East-West trade talks.
Comment: This Czech maneuver suggests
that the Orbit is prepared to take new steps, through ECE, to foster
implementation of current Orbit domestic programs.
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Beginning with the ECE meeting last April,
Orbit countries have shown an increased willingness to discuss trade
with Western nations on a more businesslike basis, which resulted in a
number of new trade agreements.
LATIN AMERICA
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