CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993994
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 17, 1954

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TOICRET f
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
17 March 1954
Lopy NO. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
�COMMENT NO
NO MANOR IN CLASS.
OECtASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS 8 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE .ed Ci 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATEer9 FWVIEWER-
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Attitude of COCOM members on ship exports held discouraging
(page 3).
2. Bidault angered by Canadian support of Nehru's Indochina proposal
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Madame Rhee behind South Korean reluctance to meet in Washington
(page 4).
4. Reports of Chinese Communist air build-up near Indochina unconfirmed
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Dien Bien Phu under heavy and effective artillery fire (page 5).
6. Viet Minh coordinating its operations throughout Indochina (page 6).
7.
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
MAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Shah reported planning replacement of Zahedi (page 7).
9. Iraqi leftists may promote demonstrations in Baghdad (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Attitude of COCOM members on ship exports held discouraging:
The American proposals for future controls
over Western exports of merchant vessels
to the Soviet Orbit face "hard sledding," in
the opinion of American officials who have
just completed a round of bilateral discussions with representatives
of various COCOM countries. The American officials anticipate that
most COCOM members will favor the British over the American posi-
tion on quota increases, and that American-British differences will be
exploited to stall progress on the question. In any case no real progress
is believed possible prior to the forthcoming review in COCOM of all
strategic trade controls.
Comment: Since exports of merchant
shipping and repairs constitute a substantial portion of all Western
exports to the Orbit, the United States had hoped to obtain a prelimi-
nary favorable response to proposed controls prior to formal COCOM
negotiations. Long preliminary discussions in London, however, failed
to resolve basic American-British differences over quantitative controls.
Various European countries now feel, moreover, that even the proposals
accepted by the British in those London discussions may have been super-
seded by the new British trade policy.
2. Bidault angered by Canadian support of Nehru's Indochina proposal:
Comment: St. Laurent stated in a press
interview on 24 February that no settlement of major Asian problems
could be permanent unless influential Asian nations participate. So
far as is known, he made no specific reference to Indian participation
at Geneva.
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FAR EAST
3. Madame Rhee behind South Korean reluctance to meet in Washington:
Comment: Madame Rhee is known to
have exercised a great deal of political influence in the past, pri-
marily by means of behind-the-scenes maneuvering. Rheers re-
luctance to agree to meetings in Washington probably stems from
a desire to extract an American commitment for a military build-up
as a price for attending the Geneva conference.
4. Reports of Chinese Communist air build-up near Indochina unconfirmed:
According to Ambassador Heath at Saigon,
the American air attach�here said "his
intelligence" shows that a jet squadron is
based at Nanning in South China near the
Indochina border. The attach�aid also that the American 13th Air
Force in the Philippines reports construction of a potential jet air-
field on the east coast of Hainan Island.
The attach�as no information regarding
Chinese Communist-Viet Minh intentions to use air power in Indochina.
He notes, however, that two unidentified aircraft flew over the airfield
at Haiphong near Hanoi on 17 and 22 February. He believes these were
Chinese Communist photo reconnaissance planes.
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Comment: There have been several
reports of jet aircraft at Nanning during the past two years. None
of these reports has, however, been confirmed. The latest reliable
information indicates that the field there is unable to accommodate
jets, but is occasionally used by civil transports.
The aircraft recently reported over
Haiphong may have been Chinese conventional fighters from Liuchow.
No jet planes are known to be based within range of Haiphong.
The Chinese may be renovating old airfields
along the west ccat,t of Hainan Island, but this is the first report of any
construction of new facilities on the east coast.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Dien Bien Phu under heavy and effective artillery fire:
reports that French positions at Dien
Bien Phu received an average of 10
rounds of artillery per minute throughout
15 March. Enemy artillery was effective
in knocking out French gun crews.
The French air commander in Tonkin told
the American consul on 16 March that enemy
shelling of the airstrip and bad weather at Dien Bien Phu were seriously
hampering efforts to keep the fortress supplied. All supplies and rein-
forcements must now be airdropped.
, The French intend to replace their artillery
losses, and a battery is being readied for airdrop, according to the army
attach�General Navarre has indicated he intends to hold Dien Bien Phu
at any cost, even if this means using all his parachute battalions.
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6. Viet Minh coordinating its operations throughout Indochina
7.,
greatly intensified Viet Minh
operations now under way within the
Tonkin delta are designed to tie down the
maximum number of French reserves. Midday attacks against French
Union posts have increased, and the hiffhway between Hanoi and Haiphong
is being cut daily. further purpose of the intensi-
fied operations is to play up for political effect the French-Vietnamese
inability to defend adequately areas long free from Viet Minh attacks.
In South Vietnam
the situation continues to deteriorate slowly. insecurity IS spreading
into areas previously considered pacified.
The Viet Minh is making a major effort to
reduce the effectiveness of the French air force by compelling it to
operate over wide areas to meet Communist attacks throughout the
country.
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Shah reported planning replacement of Zahedi:
As a result of difficulties with Prime Minister
Zahedi, the shah may appoint a "stronger man"
as chief of staff and groom him for the post of
prime minister.
The shah's choices, in order of preference,
are General Ali Kia, retired chief of the Iranian border guards; Colonel
Hassan Pakravan, former chief of army intelligence; and General Mohammad
Taghi Majidi, the present G-2.
Comment: The shah would actually like to have
a completely subservient prime minister, although he does not appear
capable of administering the government effectively, either alone or
through a figurehead. The shah's inability to control Zahedi, and his
frequent attempts to by-pass the prime minister, have caused continual
friction.
An attempt to replace Zahedi is unlikely to be
made until after some decision has been reached in the oil negotiations.
9. Iraqi leftists may promote demonstrations in Baghdad:
Leftist, anti-Western parties in Baghdad
are preparing student strikes to protest
against Iraqi adherence to the Turkish-
Pakistani agreement,
The demonstrations may be called at any time,
possibly as early as 17 March.
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Comment: Demonstrations are likely
in view of the popular opposition that has been built up to Iraqi
participation in the pact. Extremist parties have threatened 'another
"Portsmouth Day" like that in 1948 when rioting forced the government
to repudiate a revision of the 1930 Anglo-Iraqi treaty.
The government is believed able to control
the situation. It may, however, be so intimidated as to break off the
negotiations with the United States on military aid. It may also be
induced to delay indefinitely its adherence to the Turkish-Pakistani
pact.
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