CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993999
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 24, 1954

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JECRET
24 March 1954
Copy No. s4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:47/14/79 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
TOPfiECET V /i/ A
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irue
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Bohlen sees possible threat to Khrushchev's position (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Navarre more optimistic about Dien Bien Phu (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iranian oil consortium agreement again threatened by compensation
question (page 4).
4.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French EDC debate seen delayed (page 5).
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VII A
SOVIET UNION
1. Bohlen sees possible threat to Ithrushchev's position:
Ambassador Bohlen observes that the
"continued agricultural shortcomings"
revealed in Khrushchev's 23 February
report to the central committee may
create a threat to his position. The report, made public on 21
March, blueprinted a grain expansion program apparently "based
on new or more accurate data" than were available in September.
Bohlen notes that Khrushchev must, in
the long run, accept the responsibility for the agricultural program.
The ambassador points out that Khrushchev� in his sharp criticism
of subordinates, may be attempting "to unload on others as much
responsibility for the situation as possible."
Comment: By belatedly adding a grain
acreage expansion scheme to the objectives set last autumn, the
Soviet leaders increased the strains on their already ambitious
program, and may well have opened up further possibilities for
dissension within the hierarchy.
Assignments of priorities and equipment
under the autumn plan were presumably based on the estimate that
the grain situation was relatively satisfactory. The new plan requires
the diversion of quantities of equipment and manpower earlier ear-
marked for other sectors of the Soviet economy.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Navarre more optimistic about Dien Bien Phu:
General Navarre is definitely more
optimistic about holding Dien Bien Phu
than a week ago, according to Commis-
sioner Dejean. Ambassador Heath reports
that the French commander is gratified by the American permission
to use C-119's for bombing. Navarre believes that massive napalm
attacks on Viet Minh positions would destroy forest cover and cause
heavy personnel losses and some destruction of artillery.
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the Chinese Commu-
nusts are stepping up their supply of artillery ammunition to the Viet
Minh, particularly for 105's, and that 4,000 shells had arrived on 22
March, by way of Laichau. The French also have information that
Viet Minh reinforcements are being sent to Dien Bien Phu, but believe
that it will be ten days before they arrive.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iranian oil consortium agreement again threatened by compensation
question:
The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company holds that
its acceptance of the one billion dollar offer
of the other participants for their shares in
the oil consortium is contingent on payment
of $280,000,000 compensation by Iran.
The American companies are reluctant to
commit themselves to such a deal without knowing whether the United
States government would support it. They prefer to risk jeopardizing
the entire negotiations now rather than to find themselves in an "impos-
sible situation" later.
Herbert Hoover, Jr., feels the United States
cannot support the British claim for $280,0009000 compensation from
Iran. He plans to request the British government to reconsider the
necessity for any direct compensation to AIOC.
Comment: AIOC's agreement to the one
billion dollar offer was originally conditional on the United States and
Britain's setting a figure for Iranian compensation payment which would
be satisfactory to the company. The British government has stated that
the final arrangements with Iran must include a direct compensation
payment to deter other countries from nationalizing their oil industries.
If this latest proposal were submitted to Iran
it would almost certainly be rejected.
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I. EA.AVC A
4.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French EDC debate seen delayed
Guy Mollet, secretary general of the Fr
Socialist Party, told Ambassador Bruce
that the French government "had
already made it apparent" that it does not intend
a debate before Easter.
The British Foreign Office believes that a pre-
Geneva debate on EDC is highly unlikely in France, that ratification prob-
ably could not be obtained during the Geneva talks, and that a post-Geneva
debate would face a new and probably worsened situation.
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Comment: Opening of the EDC debate
before the Geneva conference becomes less likely with the passage
of each day. If French preconditions have not been met by the end
of next week, the debate will probably be postponed indefinitely.
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