CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/27

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02994001
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 27, 1954

I
/
Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
7'OP ET Mr
27 March
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOciltvtENT NO. 14- V
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT FiEVIEW DATE: P
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:arigirs. REVIEWER:
3.5(c) 21
19543.3(h)(2)
� ///i,
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP RET V
At,
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
.rovi r ac
SUMMARY
GENERAL
lo Bidault believes fear of Communist China will influence Soviet
position at Geneva (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. USSR may urge Japanese neutralization at Geneva (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Heavy increase in Viet Minh troops inside delta reported
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Turkish-Pakistani defense agreement ready for signature (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Tudeh allegedly ordered to support British in Iran (page 6).
Israel seeks French support against Iraqi union with Syria
or Jordan (page 6).
7. Ambassador Caffery's analysis of situation in Cairo (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Paris embassy believes Laniel government could survive fall
of Dien Bien Phu (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Reported Cuban revolt scheme includes Batista's assassination (page 8).
27 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Noel Ur
GENERAL
1. Bidault believes fear of Communist China will influence Soviet position
at Geneva:
French foreign minister Bidatat on 25 March
outlined to Ambassador Dillon his "general
impression" of probable Soviet positions
at Geneva. Bidault said his views were
based on a 24 March interview with Soviet ambassador Vinogradov.
The Soviet ambassador made no attempt to connect the Geneva con-
ference with EDC.
Bidault believes the Soviet leaders are
"deeply afraid" that Communist China will "drag them into an adven-
ture" and are, therefore, "really desirous of achieving peace, or at
least a cease-fire, in Indochina." For these reasons, the Soviet dele-
gation at Geneva will be "hoping for United States assistance in con-
trolling Communist China."
Comment.
Moscow
and Peiping appear to be in substantial agreement on the Far Eastern
Communist program and on their respective roles in it. Since mid-
1951, this program has not called for aggressive military ventures
of the Korean type.
The USSR and China seem confident that
the Communists are in a position to demand a high price for ending
the Indochina war and that continued military pressure will eventually
force the French to take the initiative in making a truce offer to the
Viet Minh.
3
27 Mar 54
TOP
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
C)E'._dJXE I
FAR EAST
2. USSR may urge Japanese neutralization at Geneva:
Communist China.
the pro-
posal of the Japanese Left Socialists to send
an observer to the Geneva conference may
be of great advantage to the USSR and to
the Left Socialists feel the
USSR may urge the neutralization of Japan in discussions of Asian
security guarantees.
Comment: Soviet officials recently suggested
that Geneva could provide an opportunity for private talks on general
questions other than Korea and Indochina, possibly including American
bases in Japan.
Neutralist sentiment in Japan opposing the
US-Japanese security treaty would be strengthened if the Communists
at Geneva support the Left Socialists' call for a system of nonaggression
pacts to guarantee Japanese security.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Heavy increase in Viet Minh troops inside delta reported:
The assistant American army attach�n
Hanoi reports that all major Viet Minh units
recently deployed around the Tonkin delta
defense perimeter are now inside. Enemy
activity has increased sharply in the last
two weeks.
Certain Viet Minh regional companies are
being deployed to cut roads along the Hanoi-Haiphong route.
the enemy proposes to give these units further
27 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 26-19/08/02 CO2994001
'..J 11
Nape
training and save the regular battalions for a more important mission,
probably an attempt to isolate Hanoi in conjunction with a major attack
on Dien Bien
Comment: This report indicates that the
enemy now has about 20,000 regulars inside the delta perimeter, as
compared to the approximately 13,000 recently reported. The enemy
also has some 55,000 auxiliary troops inside the perimeter.
The Viet Minh attacks on Tonkin airfields
shortly before the assault on Dien Bien Phu provide evidence that the
enemy's activity in the delta is closely coordinated with its plans for
Dien Bien Phu.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Turkish-Pakistani defense agreement ready for signature:
Turkey's Foreign Ministry has agreed to all
textual changes suggested by Pakistan in
the defense pact between the two countries,
and hopes that the Pakistani foreign minister
will come to Ankara to sign the agreement within a few days. If this
is not possible, the Turks propose to authorize their ambassador in
Karachi to sign, since they believe immediate action is essential.
Comment: Turkey's readiness to sign the
agreement at once suggests that Ankara has not been frightened off by
the Karachi government's defeat in the recent East Pakistan elections.
Immediate signature would obviate delays that might ensue should
Pakistan;become temporarily preoccupied by domestic political prob-
lems posed by these elections.
5
27 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
lore
1 kJ
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Tudeh allegedly ordered to support British in Iran:
Comment: There has been no overt mani-
festation of this new tactic in Tudeh activities, but it would be in line
with current Communist propaganda toward "colonial areas," which
emphasizes that the United States is their chief enemy. The new tactic
would promote cooperation between the Tudeh and the influential and
opportunistic pro-British elements and increase the effectiveness of
the anti- Zahedi forces. Such a Tudeh move would also be aimed at
promoting a split between the United States and Britain,
6. Israel seeks French support against Iraqi union with Syria or Jordan:
6
:27 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
.410,1 \Jr
lxii I.
Comment: For several years Israel has
argued that France and Israel have an identical interest in combating
pan-Arabism. The French, desiring to maintain the status quo in the
Near East and to restrict British and American interests there, have
recently drawn closer to Israel.
. Ambassador Caffery's analysis of situation in Cairo:
Ambassador Caffery suggests that it was only
t o avoid grave unrest and possible civil war
that the Nasr-dominated Revolutionary Command
Council yielded to Nagib's desire for an early
return to political activity.
The RCC hopes that its capitulation on the
issues of political parties and elections will create an atmosphere in
which a settlement on Suez is possible. The RCC also feels that its
prestige will be restored and even enhanced by a settlement.
Nagib has demonstrated his willingness "to
play along with the worst elements in the country, including the Wafd-
ists, the Moslem Brotherhood and the Communists," in order to stay
in power.
Comment: This analysis, in line with late
press reports, suggests that Nagib retains the initiative. An inten-
sive struggle for power continues, and it seems that extremist
elements have an opportunity to enter the picture. Such a development
would further delay -- and impair the chances of success for -- a Suez
settlement.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Paris embassy believes Laniel government could survive fall of
Dien Bien Phu:
The American embassy in Paris does not
believe that the loss of Dien Bien Phu would
ze.Sult in,th3 fall of the Laniel government
nOICP,;11 ,?all for immediate negotiations
with the Viet Minh.
27 Mar 54
TOP
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001
1 lJ EL.P...C.,
mope
The embassy supports its view by citing such
factors as the imminence of the Geneva talks and the wish of National
Assembly deputies to avoid the risk of dissolution and new elections at
this time. Furthermore, it doubts that an assembly majority could be
found in favor of immediate negotiations with the Viet Minh. A defeat
at Dien Bien Phu would, however, severely shock French public opinion.
Comment: Premier Laniel is reported to be
increasingly optimistic about the whole Indochina situation. He told
Ambassador Dillon on 23 March that defeatism in France has now
considerably abated.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Reported Cuban revolt scheme includes Batista's assassination:
The perennial rumors of revolt in Cuba have
now been reinforced by a report from the
American base at Guantanamo that trouble
is imminent, according to the American
embassy in Havana. It is now rumored that ousted president Prio
will return and that revolutionaries will wipe out the entire Batista
family, "even to the cat."
The embassy notes that since 20 March the
Cuban navy has been on special alert. Control over land and sea traffic,
particularly in Havana and in Oriente province, has been tightened.
Comment:
pro- Prio elements may have abandoned their more pretentious
plans and decided to assassinate Batista and other key figures as a cheap
and effective way to seize power. It is unlikely that these elements could
gain control, since they are believed to lack military or popular support.
Should Batista be assassinated� it is probable
that present military leaders would assume control and set up a governing
junta.
8
27 Mar 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2994001