CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02998282
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 6, 1954

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3.3(h)(Z)
3.5(c);
6 June 1954
Copy No.
80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. -If
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
111 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 4/'L/8_ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India strongly opposed to Thai UN appeal (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Japanese business circles reported urging Yoshida retirement
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh may be preparing prisoner lists for cease-fire (page 4).
4. Vietnamese protest French defeatism at Geneva (page 5).
5. Thailand has reservations on Southeast Asian security arrange-
ment (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iranian oil negotiations approaching new impasse (page 6).
7. Comment on Greek-Yugoslav announcement on military alliance
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia protests Soviet treatment of its diplomats (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Catholic attack on Labor Party threatens Dutch government's
stability (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Mexico to support OAS meeting on Guatemala (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. India strongly opposed to Thai UN appeal:
The Indians are "really getting their
steam up" over Thailand's appeal to the
UN Security Council, according to the
British acting high commissioner in
ew e e o Ambassador Allen on 3 June that Indian officials
believe the Thai move is an effort to by-pass, impede or belittle the
Geneva negotiations on Indochina.
On 2 June the secretary general of the
Indian Foreign Ministry summarily refused the Thai ambassador's
request that India support the appeal.
Comment: Vehement Indian opposition
could severely hamper the iiccess of Thailand's request that the UN
Peace Observation Commission observe Communist action in Indochina
as a threat to Thai security, since India has been envisaged as a lead-
ing participant in the subcommittee which would be set up for this
purpose.
New Delhi can also be expected to oppose any
other move which it regards as tending to distract attention from Geneva
or is strongly objected to by the Communists.
FAR EAST
2. Japanese business circles reported urging Yoshida retirement:
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Comment: Yoshida's dictatorial methods,
his unwillingness to heed party advice and his refusal to consult party
leaders on important policy matters have steadily undermined his base
of support. He apparently hopes to improve his position through Amer-
ican "presents" and by capitalizing on the recent Diet fracas, which
has been a powerful spur to conservative unity. Loss of financial sup-
port from Japanese businessmen would be a serious blow to the Liberal
Party.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Wet Minh may be preparing prisoner lists for cease-fire:
Comment: The Viet Minh may be anticipating
a parallel to the Korean situation, where an exchange of sick and wounded
followed by a general prisoner agreement paved the way for a formal
cease-fire.
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4. Vietnamese, _protest French defeatism at Geneva:
A member of the Vietnamese delegation
at Geneva told Ambassador Heath on 3 June
that he had protested to the French delega-
tion that the French officers now negotiating
with Viet Minh military representatives there are defeatists. He said
the Vietnamese delegation has been instructed to watch for signs of
"defeatist concessions" by their French colleagues.
Comment: Indicative of the fact that the
French government's efforts are aimed at an early negotiated settle-
ment is the appointment as commander in chief in Indochina of General
Ely, whose preoccupation in recent years has been with staff functions
to the exclusion of field experience, rather than General Cogny, a pro-
ponent of more forceful measures.
General Satan, whose Maginot type of thinking
was largely responsible for the present military situation in Indochina,
is reported to be Ely's chief aide. The new minister for the Associated
States, Frederic-Dupont, who is a Gaullist, has also stated that his
primary interest in taking office is to further the cease-fire negotiations
at Geneva.
5. Thailand has reservations on Southeast Asian security arrangement:
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Comment: both
Bangkok's unremitting efforts to obtain a Western defense commitment
and its apprehension lest Western abandonment of Southeast Asia leave
Thailand exposed to Communist retaliation for its strong support of the
Western position.
An editorial of 2 June in Phibun's Bangkok
newspaper warned that free Asian states might feel compelled to
"sign up" with the Communists if abandoned by the West.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iranian oil negotiations approaching new impasse:
Ambassador Henderson believes that an oil
agreement which does not clearly indicate
that the proposed consortium will be acting
as the agent of Iran, rather than in its own
right, would probably lack durability even if
Majlis ratification were eventually achieved.
He expressed this opinion after receiving infor-
mation that "agency status" would probably be
unacceptable to the consortium.
Henderson emphasized that, despite inherent
political intrigues, the great majority of Iran's leaders and people desire
an oil agreement which will assure the country a steady income for many
years. He warns, however, that they would prefer no settlement to one
which involved the "national humiliation" of scrapping the oil nationali-
zation law.
Comment: The question of agency status ap-
pears to be a major problem on which compromise will be exceedingly
difficult, both from the standpoint of the practical business attitude of
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the consortium and from the angle of Iranian emotionalism. Even
though Iran has intimated that agency status would be more nominal
than real, it is almost certain to stick on this point unless some device
is found to protect its national prestige.
7. Comment on Greek-Yugoslav announcement on military alliance:
The Greek-Yugoslav announcement, concurred
In by Turkey, that a tripartite military alliance
will be established when the foreign ministers
of the three countries meet in July resulted primarily from a conviction
that automatic defense commitments are essential for continuing security.
The announcement was made despite considerable urging by the Western
powers that the element of timing be left open.
All three powers have clearly demonstrated
during recent months their intention to promote such an alliance and
their impatience at foreign interference. Greece, Turkey, and Yugo-
slavia are equally responsible for this development, which will increase
Yugoslav-Italian tension and cause indecision among the NATO powers
concerning their mutual commitments.
The decision to create a tripartite consultative
assembly is apparently an attempt to emphasize the broadening co-opera-
tion of the three powers. Creation of such an assembly may contribute
to a really effective tightly .knit alliance.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia protests Soviet treatment of its diplomats:
Yugoslav ambassador Vidic delivered a strong
protest concerning treatment of Yugoslav per-
sonnel in Moscow to Soviet deputy foreign
minister V. A. Zorin recently,,according
to the American embassy in Moscow. He protested the "gross discour-
tesy and inhumanity" to himself and his family on a motor trip a few days
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earlier, as being incompatible with the professed Soviet desire to
normalize relations. Zorin told Vidic that no "central organ" of the
Soviet government had given orders for such treatment.
Vidic told the American embassy that this was
only oneiof several such incidents. He attributes such discrimination to
Soviet displeasure with Yugoslav efforts to strengthen the Balkan pact and
with Yugoslavia's refusal to grant visas for additional Soviet personnel in
Belgrade. Even though the USSR has a staff of 40 in Belgrade compared to
five Yugoslays in Moscow, Vidic says that the question of visas for addi-
tional Soviet personnel has been brought up repeatedly.
Comment: During the last six months Soviet
efforts to normalize relations with Yugoslavia have diminished, and the
Yugoslays have taken various opportunities to point this out.
�
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Catholic attack on Labor Party threatens Dutch government's stability:
A statement by the Dutch Catholic bishops on
30 May that Catholic membership in the Labor
Party "cannot be squared with conscience" is
causing a "political sensation" and may jeopard-
ize continued Catho ic- a or co-operation in the Dutch government,
The Labor Party fears that the bishops' action
will intensify the country's religious cleavages and make it extremely
difficult for Catholics to have a choice of political affiliation.
the pamphlet's effect will depend on interpre-
tation by the parish priests.
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Nor'
Comment: Relations between these two
major parties have deteriorated in the last six months. The Labor
Party has scheduled a special congress for early July to discuss the
bishops' statement.
While the Netherlands has heretofore offered
the best example of co-operationbetween Socialists and Catholic politi-
cal parties, the bishops' pamphlet will tend to strengthen suspicion among
Socialists in the other countries considering EDC that European integra-
tion schemes are not feasible.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Mexico to support OAS meeting on Guatemala:
Mexico's president Ruiz Cortines told
Ambassador White on 2 June that he fav-
ored a meeting of the Organization of
American States OAS) on the Guatemalan
problem and that he had ordered the Foreign Ministry to support
Washington policy "in every way possible." Ruiz added that arrange-
ments will be worked out by Foreign Minister Padilla Nervo.
Comment: Overt Mexican support of
Washington policy will proFaT5�strongly influence other hitherto un-
committed governments to favor such an OAS meeting. Mexico was
one of the countries most resistant to passing the anti-Communist
resolution at the Caracas conference, and in the Voting abstained, partly
on the ground that it would prepare the way for "intervention" in the
affairs of other American governments such as Guatemala.
Padilla now favors the current Washington
proposal for preventing further arms shipments and Communist travel
to Guatemala and for the use of "moral suasion" to effect a change in
Guatemala's pro-Communist policy. Despite the president's orders,
however, he has expressed uneasiness about applying other pressure
or sanctions.
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