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December 10, 1958
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V / rXfiaW Approvedeirlidar998399 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 10 December 1958 Copy No. C CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. _ CI-IAN(;E IN PE.C;..A.?;.7.1HE.D AU REV:EWEn: TOP SECRET for Release: 2020/01/23 CO29983997/7 /1, Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 qook � %. U 40 16,110 NIG. ��� M. Ala. IN= An. 1mm. ��...mr Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 rrrr C", 1-71", n 17 9" Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Naar) � 10 DECEMBER 1958 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR considered likely to shift tactics on Berlin proposals to maintain initia- tive. IL ASIA-AFRICA Iraqi regime rounding up disaffected elements and tribal leaders. UAR reinforces troops on Syrian- Israeli border. Israelis continue to threaten retali- ation. Japan - Kishi continues to face serious, factionalism within his party. Laos - Premier and army intensify plan- ning for military take-over of govern- ment. Afghan prime minister expresses con- cern over US policy toward Pakistan and Iran. III. THE WEST 0 Adenauer includes West Berlin mayor in NATO delegation. 0 De Gaulle agrees to permit France to recognize Guinea. 0 Honduran military leaders deliver ulti- matum to President Villeda. Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 / i.n...41,4 i CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN et 10 December 1958 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR-Berlin: Ambassador Thompson believes the USSR probably has a number of "fallback positions" on Berlin and is planning further moves over the next six months to maintain its initiative on the problem. The USSR may nffAr 1-n inollirlia Nine+ riccrlir, 411 tlansv.;14,1-4, free city. Iraq: The Qasim regime is rounding up disaffected elements in Baghdad and shaking up the security services. The chiefs of the national and Baghdad olice forces have been replaced, as well as the director of military intelli- gence. Although these changes and the arrests of four tribal leaders appear to have reduced the likelihood of action by these elements, there is still a possibilit that so ers may move against Qasim. Israel-Syria: The UAR First Army has reinforced the Syrian-Israeli border front, possibly with as many as four battalions, and has alerted additional troops following in- creased Israeli aerial reconnaissance. Other unsp � "precautionary preparations" also have been made. Border incidents continue, and Israeli press an p- oma lc spokesmen hint strongly that Israel may take "retal- iatory" action. The Israeli chief of staff is in Paris� the reasons for his trip are unknown. --T&P-SEGRE-T- AApproved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 A V 'Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 11 0 Japan: Prime Minister Kishi is faced with increasingly serious factionalism in the governing Liberal-Democratic party. In an effort to gain greater power in party and govern- mental affairs, his opponents reportedly have demanded the resignation of the top party executives for their part in the re- cent parliamentary crisis over strengthening police authority. (Page 2) Laos: Army leaders in cooperation with Premier Phoui have intensified planning for a seizure of power by the army. Present plans call for abrogation of the assembly and forma- tion of a provisional government capable of meeting the Com- munist political and subversive challenge. Previous reports indicated such a move would probably take place in January, but action may be undertaken sooner in view of the reported sense of urgency among those involved. (Page 3) Afghanistan: Afghan Prime Minister Daud's recent expres- sions of strong concern over US military negotiations with Pakistan and Iran and over developments in Pakistan indicate Kabul feels increasingly isolated and may be reassessing its U foreign policy. The Afghan Government may feel compelled to draw closer to the USSR, although its first efforts might be to try to secure more support from the West. (Page 4) III. THE WEST West Germany - Berlin: The inclusion of West Berlin Mayor Willy Brandt in the German delegation to the annual NATO ministerial meeting is a conciliatory gesture which Bonn feels is necessary to overcome the coolness between Brandt and Adenauer as a result of the chancellor's campaign speeches in 6 the West Berlin election c mpaign. BrandtYs particip tion will help restore the ape ranee of a united front between the West German politic 1 parties on the Berlin question. (Page 5) 10 Dec 58 DAILY BRIEF 11 TOP SECRET Akirpro�v�e�d "K;""r,"ii2020/01/23 C 02998399 rirApproved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 1410 France-Guinea: De Gaulle, who has previously refused to recognize Guinea, has authorized signature of a financial agreement which includes a clause stating that France recog- nizes the Toure government. This action will remove one of the major obstacles to better French-Guinea relations and may have the effect of countering the trend toward close associa- tion between Guinea and Ghana. (Page 6) Honduras: Armed forces leaders handed President Vil- leda an ultimatum on 8 December demanding that he take steps immediately to change his one-party administration to a coal- ition government and that he promptly force members of his Liberal party to stop their efforts to undermine the position of the armed forces. The President is reported to have accepted the demands in principle. Some of his partisans will be angered by this military intervention in civil government; violence could result. (Page 7) 10 Dec 58 DAILY BRIEF iii TOPS Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399r SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 NeiV L THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR May Offer to Include East Berlin in Free City Ambassador Thompson believes Moscow probably has further moves and various "fallback positions" on Berlin planned for use over the next six months. Thompson sug- gests that an offer to include East Berlin in a demilitarized free city might be advanced to make the original Soviet pro- posal more attractive. The Soviet leaders probably foresee major advantages from any Western response. Acceptance would require the withdrawal of Western garrisons, and negotiations for a UN controlled access corridor to Berlin which would amount to a large measure of international recognition of the East German regime. Rejection by the West, in Moscow's view, would greatly strengthen the Soviet position for carrying out the pre- viously announced plans to transfer control over Allied access to West Berlin to the East Germans. The Soviet leaders prob= ably also expect that a negative Western reaction would stim- ulate fresh demands by opposition parties, particularly in West Germany and Britain, for various disengagement schemes which would lead to the demilitarization and neutralization of a reunified Germany. Recent hints by Soviet diplomats in Moscow and various European capitals and a speech by East German Premier Grotewohl suggest that the USSR plans further initiatives link- ing its Berlin proposals to broader German and European questions. �SEeRE-72-- 10 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 CONFIIVNTIA- Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Nip NtOP4 II. ASIA-AFRICA Kishi Faces Critical Intraparty Struggle in Japan Factionalism in Japan's ruling Liberal-Democratic party is threatening Prime Minister Kishi's control of both the party and the government. Faction leaders, attempting to disglace the "mainstream" group on which Kishi has been primarily dependent, have de- manded that the party's three top officers, other than Kishi, be replaced on the grounds that they were responsible for the recent parliamentary crisis over the police bill. These fac- tion leaders also object to a reported "mainstream" plan to advance the election of the party president from March to January, hoping for time to build up enough strength to force Kishi to bargain with them on appointive party offices. Kishi himself apparently is not an immediate target of the "anti-mainstream" move, and his re-election as party presi- dent seems probable, but the move may have the long-range purpose of working toward his ultimate downfall. CONFIDENTIAL 10 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 TnP SrCRFT Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Coup Plotting in Laos Intensified Prime Minister Phoui Sananikone is said to be providing political guidance for a group of army leaders who are plan- ning to seize the government and abrogate the assembly. Phoui reportedly believes that no Laotian government can achieve the stability necessary to meet the Communist polit- ical and subversive challenge unless the constitution is mod- ified to reduce the power of the legislature. Coup plotting was probably stimulated by the prospect that disgruntled con- servative politicians in the assembly would overthrow the government during the January special session. A sense of urgency, however, appears to have developed recently, and an extraconstitutional move might occur earlier. Coup planners fear opposition might stem from either the pro-Communist left or from elements, especially the police, under the influence of Defense and Interior Minister Katay. However, the relatively greater strength of the army would appear to ensure the initial success of a coup provided top army leaders are in agreement. The role of the influential crown prince is as yet unclear. Presumably the coup group would request his cooperation in order to preserve some legitimacy. TOP SECRET 10 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 �SECRETApproved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 NNW Afghan Government May Be Reassessing Its Foreign Policy The Afghan Government apparently feels increasingly isolated as a result of recent events in the Middle East and may be reassessing its foreign policy. Since the Iraqi coup of 14 July, the Afghan royal family has been nervous about its ability to remain in power. Prime Minister Daud has expressed strong fears that US military negotiations with Pakistan and Iran are "shatter- ing" the balance of power in the area and causing an economic drain on other countries which must arm themselves. Daud is also apparently worried by the advent of a new military re- gime in Pakistan. His government is discouraged over pros- pects of making progress toward an accommodation in its "Pushtoonistan" dispute with Pakistan, which it feels has a vital bearing on its prestige and power within Afghanistan. If Kabul's anxieties continue, it may consider that it has no alternative but to accept Soviet support in maintaining its position. It might accordingly accept an enlarged Soviet military training program and emphasize its long-standing defense agreement with the USSR. Daud, however, resented Voroshilov's attacks against the West during his state visit in early October, and his gov- ernment resisted Soviet suggestions of a pact with the UAR. Aware of Soviet interference in the internal affairs of Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Fittland, the Afghans have appeared cautious about drawing closer to the USSR. Apprehension about pos- sible Soviet pressure may make Kabul particularly sensitive to real or imagined dangers of isolation from the free world. Kabul therefore may first maneuver to secure Western pressure on the new Pakistani regime to adopt a more con- ciliatory position on Pushtoonistan, and it may want Western assurances that Pakistan and Iran are not to be further strength- ened at the expense of Afghan security. The Afghans are also likely to seek to speed up American economic assistance pro- grams. SECRET 10 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 CONFIDFNTI A Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 %ore III. THE WEST West Berlin Mayor to Participate in NATO Meeting The inclusion of West Berlin's Mayor Willy Brandt in the German delegation to the 16 December NATO meeting in Paris is a conciliatory gesture by Bonn to offset the bitterness over Chancellor, Adenauer's campaign speeches in Berlin. Since Brandt's Social Democratic party (SPD) won an abso. lute majority, it could exclude Adenauer's Christian Demo- cratic Union (CDU) from the city government. Brandt's presence at the NATO meeting, as well as his visit to Bonn this week, may do something to restore the SPD's cooperation with Foreign Minister Brentano, who urged Brandt's inclusion. Bonn leaders may feel that Brandt's presence in the German delegation will tend to refute press reports of grow- ing discord between Brandt and Bonn over the Berlin ques- tion. They may also believe that Brandt's participation may influence him to go along with whatever conclusions are reached in the NATO discussions on Berlin. CONFIDENTIAL 10 Dec 58 ("TNT!? AI IMTPI I inrkirc RI II I cTikt Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Page 5 coNrinrwrIA Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 France-Guinea Accord Authorized by Paris De Gaulle has authorized signature of a monetary agree- ment with Guinea which includes a clause stating that France recognizes the government of Premier Sekou Toure. The French negotiator of the agreement says it provides for Guinea's continuing membership in the franc zone and for creation in Guinea of an exchange office, a treasury, a state bank of issue, and a national currency. Texts of a cultural accord and a technical assistance agreement are also reported ready for signature. French approval of these measures is a reversal of the policy followed by Paris since Guinea chose independence by rejecting De Gaulle's new constitution. It removes one of the major obstacles to better relations between Guinea and France, and also to regularization of future contacts between Guinea and the French African territories which have elected to participate in the new French Community. France probably intended its abstention in the 9 Decem- ber vote on Guinea's UN admission to show that, despite the new agreement, French support for former territories which choose independence will be less complete than for those which stay with the French Community. Toure now may be less disposed to push for the close as- sociation with Ghana which he and Ghana's Prime Minister Nkrumah projected on 23 November. He has had some in- dication that he might be less than an equal partner in a Guinea-Ghana association, and may have developed second thoughts about becoming involved with Britain thrntur Ghana's Commonwealth ties. CONFIDENTIAL 10 Dec 58 rCkITD A I 114.1Tel I le�Gkle'E nil,. rviki Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Page 6 cnNrinrivil A I Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 Nal Honduran Armed Forces Hand Ultimatum to President Leaders of the armed forces on 8 December gave Honduran President Villeda a letter which, while respectful in tone, is in effect an ultimatum. The document "requests" the President to form immediately a "government of national conciliation" in- cluding the opposition Nationalist and Reformist parties. Other demands call for the immediate cessation of partisan efforts to undermine the position of the armed forces, immediate ac- tion against exiles in Honduras plotting against neighboring governments, and civil government cooperation with the mil- itary in a campaign against Communism. The military leaders, chiefly concerned over attempts by members of the governing Liberal party to undermine the auton- omous status of the armed forces, in recent weeks have been considering a coup. Their present action is apparently a com- promise decided on after their failure to receive encourage- ment for a coup from the US Government. President Ville& greed to all the "suggestions," and he announced at a ecember press conference that he would restudy the compo- sition of his cabinet later this month. The President will be seriously weakened unless he is able to find a way to save face while complying with the military demands. The most imme- diate danger, however, will come from the reaction of the more hotheaded Liberals, who will undoubtedly be angered by the mil- itary intery nfinn in nivil Cri"7C"."1"1(1" ^-d feel provoked to vio- lent action. �eeNFIEPEINII1sT- 10 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLInFNICF RI III FTIK1 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 :Page 7 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 *11110i THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Special Adviser to the President The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 CO2998399 TOP SECRET e/aLz TOP SECRET