CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/12/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02998399
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: December 10, 1958

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10 December 1958
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CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. _
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� 10 DECEMBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR considered likely to shift tactics
on Berlin proposals to maintain initia-
tive.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Iraqi regime rounding up disaffected
elements and tribal leaders.
UAR reinforces troops on Syrian-
Israeli border.
Israelis continue to threaten retali-
ation.
Japan - Kishi continues to face serious,
factionalism within his party.
Laos - Premier and army intensify plan-
ning for military take-over of govern-
ment.
Afghan prime minister expresses con-
cern over US policy toward Pakistan
and Iran.
III. THE WEST
0 Adenauer includes West Berlin mayor
in NATO delegation.
0 De Gaulle agrees to permit France to
recognize Guinea.
0 Honduran military leaders deliver ulti-
matum to President Villeda.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
et 10 December 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR-Berlin: Ambassador Thompson believes the
USSR probably has a number of "fallback positions" on
Berlin and is planning further moves over the next six
months to maintain its initiative on the problem. The
USSR may nffAr 1-n inollirlia Nine+ riccrlir, 411 tlansv.;14,1-4,
free city.
Iraq: The Qasim regime is rounding up disaffected
elements in Baghdad and shaking up the security services.
The chiefs of the national and Baghdad olice forces have
been replaced, as well as the director of military intelli-
gence. Although these changes and the arrests of four tribal
leaders appear to have reduced the likelihood of action by these
elements, there is still a possibilit that so
ers may move against Qasim.
Israel-Syria: The UAR First Army has reinforced the
Syrian-Israeli border front, possibly with as many as four
battalions, and has alerted additional troops following in-
creased Israeli aerial reconnaissance. Other unsp �
"precautionary preparations" also have been made.
Border incidents continue, and Israeli press an p-
oma lc spokesmen hint strongly that Israel may take "retal-
iatory" action. The Israeli chief of staff is in Paris� the
reasons for his trip are unknown.
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Japan: Prime Minister Kishi is faced with increasingly
serious factionalism in the governing Liberal-Democratic
party. In an effort to gain greater power in party and govern-
mental affairs, his opponents reportedly have demanded the
resignation of the top party executives for their part in the re-
cent parliamentary crisis over strengthening police authority.
(Page 2)
Laos: Army leaders in cooperation with Premier Phoui
have intensified planning for a seizure of power by the army.
Present plans call for abrogation of the assembly and forma-
tion of a provisional government capable of meeting the Com-
munist political and subversive challenge. Previous reports
indicated such a move would probably take place in January,
but action may be undertaken sooner in view of the reported
sense of urgency among those involved.
(Page 3)
Afghanistan: Afghan Prime Minister Daud's recent expres-
sions of strong concern over US military negotiations with
Pakistan and Iran and over developments in Pakistan indicate
Kabul feels increasingly isolated and may be reassessing its
U foreign policy. The Afghan Government may feel compelled to
draw closer to the USSR, although its first efforts might be to
try to secure more support from the West.
(Page 4)
III. THE WEST
West Germany - Berlin: The inclusion of West Berlin
Mayor Willy Brandt in the German delegation to the annual
NATO ministerial meeting is a conciliatory gesture which Bonn
feels is necessary to overcome the coolness between Brandt and
Adenauer as a result of the chancellor's campaign speeches in
6 the West Berlin election c mpaign. BrandtYs particip tion will
help restore the ape ranee of a united front between the West
German politic 1 parties on the Berlin question.
(Page 5)
10 Dec 58
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France-Guinea: De Gaulle, who has previously refused
to recognize Guinea, has authorized signature of a financial
agreement which includes a clause stating that France recog-
nizes the Toure government. This action will remove one of
the major obstacles to better French-Guinea relations and may
have the effect of countering the trend toward close associa-
tion between Guinea and Ghana.
(Page 6)
Honduras: Armed forces leaders handed President Vil-
leda an ultimatum on 8 December demanding that he take steps
immediately to change his one-party administration to a coal-
ition government and that he promptly force members of his
Liberal party to stop their efforts to undermine the position of
the armed forces. The President is reported to have accepted
the demands in principle. Some of his partisans will be angered
by this military intervention in civil government; violence could
result. (Page 7)
10 Dec 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
TOPS
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L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR May Offer to Include East Berlin in Free City
Ambassador Thompson believes Moscow probably has
further moves and various "fallback positions" on Berlin
planned for use over the next six months. Thompson sug-
gests that an offer to include East Berlin in a demilitarized
free city might be advanced to make the original Soviet pro-
posal more attractive.
The Soviet leaders probably foresee major advantages
from any Western response. Acceptance would require the
withdrawal of Western garrisons, and negotiations for a UN
controlled access corridor to Berlin which would amount to a
large measure of international recognition of the East German
regime. Rejection by the West, in Moscow's view, would
greatly strengthen the Soviet position for carrying out the pre-
viously announced plans to transfer control over Allied access
to West Berlin to the East Germans. The Soviet leaders prob=
ably also expect that a negative Western reaction would stim-
ulate fresh demands by opposition parties, particularly in
West Germany and Britain, for various disengagement schemes
which would lead to the demilitarization and neutralization of
a reunified Germany.
Recent hints by Soviet diplomats in Moscow and various
European capitals and a speech by East German Premier
Grotewohl suggest that the USSR plans further initiatives link-
ing its Berlin proposals to broader German and European
questions.
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Kishi Faces Critical Intraparty Struggle in Japan
Factionalism in Japan's ruling Liberal-Democratic party
is threatening Prime Minister Kishi's control of both the party
and the government.
Faction leaders, attempting to disglace the "mainstream"
group on which Kishi has been primarily dependent, have de-
manded that the party's three top officers, other than Kishi,
be replaced on the grounds that they were responsible for the
recent parliamentary crisis over the police bill. These fac-
tion leaders also object to a reported "mainstream" plan to
advance the election of the party president from March to
January, hoping for time to build up enough strength to force
Kishi to bargain with them on appointive party offices.
Kishi himself apparently is not an immediate target of the
"anti-mainstream" move, and his re-election as party presi-
dent seems probable, but the move may have the long-range
purpose of working toward his ultimate downfall.
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Coup Plotting in Laos Intensified
Prime Minister Phoui Sananikone is said to be providing
political guidance for a group of army leaders who are plan-
ning to seize the government and abrogate the assembly.
Phoui reportedly believes that no Laotian government can
achieve the stability necessary to meet the Communist polit-
ical and subversive challenge unless the constitution is mod-
ified to reduce the power of the legislature. Coup plotting
was probably stimulated by the prospect that disgruntled con-
servative politicians in the assembly would overthrow the
government during the January special session. A sense of
urgency, however, appears to have developed recently, and
an extraconstitutional move might occur earlier.
Coup planners fear opposition might stem from either the
pro-Communist left or from elements, especially the police,
under the influence of Defense and Interior Minister Katay.
However, the relatively greater strength of the army would
appear to ensure the initial success of a coup provided top
army leaders are in agreement.
The role of the influential crown prince is as yet unclear.
Presumably the coup group would request his cooperation in
order to preserve some legitimacy.
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Afghan Government May Be Reassessing Its Foreign Policy
The Afghan Government apparently feels increasingly
isolated as a result of recent events in the Middle East and
may be reassessing its foreign policy. Since the Iraqi coup
of 14 July, the Afghan royal family has been nervous about
its ability to remain in power.
Prime Minister Daud has expressed strong fears that
US military negotiations with Pakistan and Iran are "shatter-
ing" the balance of power in the area and causing an economic
drain on other countries which must arm themselves. Daud
is also apparently worried by the advent of a new military re-
gime in Pakistan. His government is discouraged over pros-
pects of making progress toward an accommodation in its
"Pushtoonistan" dispute with Pakistan, which it feels has a
vital bearing on its prestige and power within Afghanistan.
If Kabul's anxieties continue, it may consider that it
has no alternative but to accept Soviet support in maintaining
its position. It might accordingly accept an enlarged Soviet
military training program and emphasize its long-standing
defense agreement with the USSR.
Daud, however, resented Voroshilov's attacks against
the West during his state visit in early October, and his gov-
ernment resisted Soviet suggestions of a pact with the UAR.
Aware of Soviet interference in the internal affairs of Hungary,
Yugoslavia, and Fittland, the Afghans have appeared cautious
about drawing closer to the USSR. Apprehension about pos-
sible Soviet pressure may make Kabul particularly sensitive
to real or imagined dangers of isolation from the free world.
Kabul therefore may first maneuver to secure Western
pressure on the new Pakistani regime to adopt a more con-
ciliatory position on Pushtoonistan, and it may want Western
assurances that Pakistan and Iran are not to be further strength-
ened at the expense of Afghan security. The Afghans are also
likely to seek to speed up American economic assistance pro-
grams.
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III. THE WEST
West Berlin Mayor to Participate in NATO Meeting
The inclusion of West Berlin's Mayor Willy Brandt in
the German delegation to the 16 December NATO meeting in
Paris is a conciliatory gesture by Bonn to offset the bitterness
over Chancellor, Adenauer's campaign speeches in Berlin.
Since Brandt's Social Democratic party (SPD) won an abso.
lute majority, it could exclude Adenauer's Christian Demo-
cratic Union (CDU) from the city government.
Brandt's presence at the NATO meeting, as well as his
visit to Bonn this week, may do something to restore the
SPD's cooperation with Foreign Minister Brentano, who
urged Brandt's inclusion.
Bonn leaders may feel that Brandt's presence in the
German delegation will tend to refute press reports of grow-
ing discord between Brandt and Bonn over the Berlin ques-
tion. They may also believe that Brandt's participation may
influence him to go along with whatever conclusions are
reached in the NATO discussions on Berlin.
CONFIDENTIAL
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France-Guinea Accord Authorized by Paris
De Gaulle has authorized signature of a monetary agree-
ment with Guinea which includes a clause stating that France
recognizes the government of Premier Sekou Toure. The
French negotiator of the agreement says it provides for
Guinea's continuing membership in the franc zone and for
creation in Guinea of an exchange office, a treasury, a
state bank of issue, and a national currency. Texts of a
cultural accord and a technical assistance agreement are
also reported ready for signature.
French approval of these measures is a reversal of
the policy followed by Paris since Guinea chose independence
by rejecting De Gaulle's new constitution. It removes one of
the major obstacles to better relations between Guinea and
France, and also to regularization of future contacts between
Guinea and the French African territories which have elected
to participate in the new French Community.
France probably intended its abstention in the 9 Decem-
ber vote on Guinea's UN admission to show that, despite the
new agreement, French support for former territories which
choose independence will be less complete than for those which
stay with the French Community.
Toure now may be less disposed to push for the close as-
sociation with Ghana which he and Ghana's Prime Minister
Nkrumah projected on 23 November. He has had some in-
dication that he might be less than an equal partner in a
Guinea-Ghana association, and may have developed second
thoughts about becoming involved with Britain thrntur Ghana's
Commonwealth ties.
CONFIDENTIAL
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Honduran Armed Forces Hand Ultimatum to President
Leaders of the armed forces on 8 December gave Honduran
President Villeda a letter which, while respectful in tone, is in
effect an ultimatum. The document "requests" the President
to form immediately a "government of national conciliation" in-
cluding the opposition Nationalist and Reformist parties. Other
demands call for the immediate cessation of partisan efforts
to undermine the position of the armed forces, immediate ac-
tion against exiles in Honduras plotting against neighboring
governments, and civil government cooperation with the mil-
itary in a campaign against Communism.
The military leaders, chiefly concerned over attempts by
members of the governing Liberal party to undermine the auton-
omous status of the armed forces, in recent weeks have been
considering a coup. Their present action is apparently a com-
promise decided on after their failure to receive encourage-
ment for a coup from the US Government.
President Ville&
greed to all the "suggestions," and he announced at a
ecember press conference that he would restudy the compo-
sition of his cabinet later this month. The President will be
seriously weakened unless he is able to find a way to save face
while complying with the military demands. The most imme-
diate danger, however, will come from the reaction of the more
hotheaded Liberals, who will undoubtedly be angered by the mil-
itary intery nfinn in nivil Cri"7C"."1"1(1" ^-d feel provoked to vio-
lent action.
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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