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December 19, 1958
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Approved for Release. 2020/01/23 C03000007 ii II 3.5(c) 19 December 3.3(h)(2) 1958 Copy No. C 6 0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN ZeZZ /Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 eg C0300000, Z/ZZ/Z/ZZ/,,4/1 TOP SECRET- UOCLIMENT I-IC) CHANGE IN CLASS. DITCLASSr�IZD CI if-,INIGET) TC). T' \JIB,/ D � r t.or A : AuT:i h 7 9 DATrY . riEVIEWER: Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 � V I-- 4.7GirRIG I oomi. Approved for Release: C03000007 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 I ..../i�A.,1%La 19 DECEMBER 1958 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Soviet ship in Cape Canaveral down- range area since 10 December; may be supporting submarines in intelli- ence collection. Chinese Communist resolution on communes recognizes practical dif- ficultiestespecially in urban areas. Bulganin confesses complicity in anti- Ehrushchev plot last year. II. ASIA-AFRICA UAR forces in Syria remain alert. Israeli official contends UN action leaves retalia- tion as only recourse. Jordan intends to complain to Ham- marskjold about UAR and Iraqi in- terference with commerce, 2, V Sudanese Government invites Soviet economic delegation; Abboud may seek large cotton barter deals. Iran shows growing concern over possibility Iraq may go Communist or become pro-Nasir. Burma - Ne Win tells Soviet repre- sentatives to complete aid projects free of charge or leave country; cancels contract with US firms. III. THE WEST Guatemala - Nullification of leftist victory in mayoral elections increases political factionalism. TOP sEeRE-T. Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 ver � Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 A N.", � 1-4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 19 December 1958 DAILY BRIEF L THE COMMUNIST BLOC Soviet naval activity: A Soviet tanker, which has re- mained in the down-range area of the Cape Canaveral missile test range since 10 December, may be support- ing a group of submarines which appear to be in the same area as the tanker and are believed to have moved recently from the North Atlantic. These ship Q rnavhA ertiltaptina in- telligence on US missile operations. (Page 1) Communist China: Peiping's resolution on the commune program indicates that the regime intends generally to carry out its program along the broad lines laid down in August, but the Communists recognize many practical problems have arisen in trying to put their policy into effect. The resolu- tion emphasizes differences between rural and urban areas and says that, except for preparatory work, the establish- ment of communes in large cities should be postponed for the time being. Reflecting a sensitivity to Soviet disapproval of Chinese statements implying that "Communism" was close at hand, the resolution warns against "utopian" dreams and declares that the task of building socialism- a necessary transition to Communism--will take some time. (Page 2) *USSR: Bulganin has been forced to admit his complicity in the June 1957 "antiparty plot" in order to emphasize Khru- shchev's control over the Soviet party and state on the eve of the 21st party congress and the inauguration of the new seven- year plan. The necessity for public reaffirmation of Khru- shchev's dominance may be an indication that he is having some difficulty in carrying out a number of major programs simultaneously. (Page 4) TOP SECRET iApproved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007/ Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 N.J.ILJJLJW.i %La I %so II. ASIA-AFRICA Arab-Israeli situation: The UAR has not reduced the alert status of general reserve units in the Syrian region, and apparently will continue propaganda regarding alleged Israeli troop concentrations. An Israeli Foreign Ministry official claims Israel has been put "on the spot" by the UN Security Council's deferral of action on Tel Aviv's complaint, and that his government has been left little recourse except "retaliation." The offi- cial emphasized, however, that there has been no decision to retaliate. (Page 5) Jordan: Prime Minister Rifai says King Husayn is again seriously concerned about Jordan's immediate economic dif- ficulties. The UAR has continued to obstruct Jordanian transit trade; the Iraqi regime has prohibited the export of sheep to Jordan-' and an acute oil shortage appears imminent. Husayn intends to take his complaints to Hammarskjold. Jordan can also be expected to use its grievances to press for continued American financial aid. Page 6) Sudan: The Abboud government has renewed an invita- tion issued by former Prime Minister Khalil for the visit of a Soviet economic delegation. In view of its continuing inabil- ity to market its cotton crop, the Sudanese Government may seek to conclude large-scale barter arrangements. Small barter agreements have already been signed with Bulgaria, Hungary, and Communist China. (Page 8) Iran-Iraq: the Iranian Senate un- derscored Iran's growing concern over developments in Iraq. The Senate unanimously agreed that should "Iraq go Commu- nist or Nasirite, Iran would be justified in using force." (Page 9) Burma: Premier Ne Win has notified Soviet represent- atives in Rangoon that they must complete their "gift" proj- ects free of charge or leave. The previous Burmese Gov- ernment, which had accepted these projects, had insisted on 19 Dec 58 DAILY BRIEF ii TOP SECRET AApproved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 vref 'Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007� , Lir %IS -,1111P" repaying the USSR in rice. Ne Win has also terminated con- tracts with two American advisory firms. These actions underscore Ne Win's determination to cut government spend- in by bv a Dolicv of accepting only grant aid, whatever the source. (Page 10) III. THE WEST Guatemala: The 7 December mayoral election in Guate- mala City, which was won by the leftist but non-Communist Revolutionary party, has been nullified by the national elec- toral tribunal on a legal technicality. This action, apparently the result of pressure by extreme rightist groups, widens the cleavage between the political left and right and could lead to factional clashes weakening the stability of President Ydigoras' government. (Page 11) W. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS AND ESTIMATES (Available during the preceding week) National Intelligence Estimate No. 54-2-58. The Outlook for Political Stability in Ceylon. 9 December 1958. National Intelligence Estimate No. 80-90-58. Latin Amer- ican Attitudes Toward the United States. 12 December 1958. 19 Dec 58 DAILY BRIEF iii AAPProved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for Re-1-Q;e72O2O/01/23 C03000007 Napo "New' I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Soviet Tanker Possibly Supporting Submarine Operations The Soviet tanker Vilyujsk has remained in an area along the Cape Canalreral missile test range approximately 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands since 10 December. This ship has been communicating with Soviet naval authorities and may be supporting the operations of a detachment of Northern Fleet submarines. Both the Vilyujsk and the submarine detachment of unknown size left the Kola Gulf area in late November. Since then the submarine detachment has been receiving enciphered commu- nications of a type suggesting that it may have a special mission. The radio frequencies employed indicate that the detachment is in the same general area as the tanker. These ships may have moved to this area to collect intelli- gence on US missile operations, and the planned duration of the deployment could have necessitated tanker support for the sub- marines. There is also a possibility that the submarines are moving to the Pacific Ocean. The tanker was scheduled to cross the Northern Sea Route in 1958, but, like the naval convoy, which probably included submarines, was unable to reach the Pacific herniice nf severe ice conditions. TOP SECRET 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Page 1 ����������� ���,� ������w � Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 ftise Chinese Communist Resolution on Commune Program Peiping's resolution on the commune program issued on 18 December indicates that the regime intends to carry out communalization along lines laid down by the politburo in August but is encountering practical problems. The com- munes will continue to feature mass feeding and housing, nurseries, boarding schools and old-age homes, but the re- gime has softened some of the more objectionable aspects of communal living. The resolution chides certain cadres who have been "over- eager" in carrying out the communal program and lays down fairly detailed lines for their future guidance. It emphasizes the need to avoid dampening the "labor enthusiasm" of commune members. To this end it expresses the hope that wages rather than "free supply" will be the major form of recompense and that 90 percent of the members will get yearly increases. Pro- vision is also made to ensure adequate sleep and time to eat. Private property--clothing, bedding, and furniture--is to re- main inviolable, as are personal savings. The resolution's references to urban communes tend to confirm earlier evidence that this phase of the movement had caused concern and confusion in the larger cities. The resolu- tion emphasizes the differences between rural and urban areas, and admits that "bourgeois ideology" is still prevalent in the large cities. Except for necessary preparatory work, the es- tablishment of urban communes on a large scale is to be post- poned until the misgivings of "skeptics and doubters" have been overcome. Reflecting Peiping's sensitivity to Soviet disapproval of Chinese statements implying that Communism is close at hand, the resolution warns against the "utopian dream of skipping the Socialist stage" and declares that the 'building of Socialism" alohe will take "15, 20, or more years." It specifically denied that communalization is to be equated with the change from 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Socialism to Communism and stresses that without a "high degree" of industrialization and mechanized and electrified agriculture it is "impossible" to talk about Communism. Im- plications that the communes might have significance beyond China are avoided. CONFIDENTIAL 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 � � -- -- Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Nord Bulganin Confesses Complicity in "Antiparty Plot" At the current Soviet central committee plenum, former Premier Bulganin has been forced to confess his complicity in last year's "antiparty plot" not only to verify the charges against his fellow conspirators but also to deliver a testi- monial to the wisdom of Khrushchev's policies. Khrushchev has apparently found it necessary to mount a full-scale at- tack against his "antiparty" opponents in order to emphasize his control over the Soviet party and state on the eve of the 21st party congress and the inauguration of a new seven-year plan. Other recent events, including the failure of the Soviet Government to announce a replacement for ousted police chief Serov and the implications of Moscow's decision to dispatch First Deputy Premier Mikoyan to the United States, might in- dicate that Khrushchev is having difficulty in carrying out a number of major programs simultaneously. The current plenum appears to have been planned well in advance to provide a forum for the fresh attack on the "anti- party group" and for Bulganin's confession. The date was presumably set at the 12 November meeting of the central com- mittee at which Khrushchev unveiled the new Soviet seven-year economic plan and first linked Bulganin with the plotters. ) A mid-November intercept by an unoffi- cial monitoring service stated that the central committee would meet on 15 December to discuss agricultural matters and that the meeting would last five clays. The unprecedented publicity accorded the plenum while it is still in session appears designed to make certain that the les- son of the "antiparty group" is made clear to all Soviet citizens. 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Page 4 " .041 ��� r41 Pin Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 tees' II. ASIA-AFRICA Arab-Israeli Situation The tTAR is planning inflammatory propaganda to sus- tain the tension which has arisen over the Israeli-Syrian border incidents. On 17 December, Cairo approved aSyr- ian plan to announce fake call-ups of UAR reserves, using fictitious unit numbers, after broadcasts alleging Israeli mobilization and troop movements. At the same time, a reduction in the "degree of readiness" of the UAR brigades and general reserve units along the Syrian border, instittit- ed by the local commander, has been overruled from Cairo by Fislrl Marshal mir, the UAR commander in chief. )!. a new Bailey bridge has been seen above Lake Hula at Israel's northern extremity adjacent to Syria, apparent- ly for use over a tributary of the Jordan River. An Israeli official has stated that an "air of discourage- ment and unhappiness" exists at Israel's Foreign Ministry because of the absence of any satisfactory result from Israel's complaint against the UAR in the UN Security tnuncil. His government, he said, is now "on the spot" with the Knesset and Israeli public opinion, leaving it, in his opinion, little recourse except retaliation, although he emphasized there had been no decision to this effect. SECRET 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 e Iri " T1, Tv IV, Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 NINO' Susi � Developments in Jordan Jordan's shaky economy may be further disrupted by con- tinuing UAR economic warfare, a new Iraqi ban on export of sheep to Jordan, the aftermath of drought and locust infesta- tion, and an acute oil shortage. The UAR refusal to permit passage of Jordanian oil tank trucks through Syria from Lebanon has been in force since the civil war in Lebanon late last spring, despite UAR endorse- ment of the UN General Assembly's Middle East resolution of 21 August. In November, Syria imposed prohibitive transit fees on passage of Jordanian trucks hauling phosphate, Jordan's principal export, to Lebanon; this week Syria passed a new regulation requiring all goods arriving at Latakia to be carried to the Jordanian border in Syrian vehicles manned by Syrian drivers. Jordan's present oil shortage derives not only from the Syrian blockade, but from mismanagement of the importation of oil through the Gulf of Aqaba. Amman appears to be at- tempting to exploit its serious and chronic economic problems to develop arguments for continued American financial assist- ance. The government also insists that it will be unable to meet the army payroll due on 27 December unless it draws on reserve funds or obtains more budgetary support from the United States. Although the UAR economic pressure has been in effect for several months, the Jordanian Government has been slow to present complaints to the UN "ambassador" in Amman, who has been charged with iMplementatioh of the August UN resolu- tion. Information provided by Amman in support of such com- plaints has been inadequate to support UN action. Jordan's Premier Rifai on 15 December described King Husayn as "furious" over the latest Syrian move, and again threatening to take retaliatory action against Syria. Rifai said that when UN Secretary General Hammarskjold visits Amman about 3 January, Jordan will ask that the UN establish offices in SEC-PE- 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 " ry 0-1�I-I Fri_ Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 446,4 %we Damascus and Beirut or withdraw from Amman. In view of probable new pressure from Hammarskjold, it is possible that the UAR might lift the physical restriction on passage of Jordanian vehicles, but continue to obstruct traffic through high taxation and other recent administrative meas- ures. On 16 December the Jordanian legislature authorized Pre- mier Rifai, in his capacity as defense minister, to reorganize the Jordanian armed forces. Rifaits plan to curtail the power of the potent officer faction from the Bani Sakhir tribe may provoke this group into intrigue against the government. -5-EGRET- 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for Release: 262-075-1/3 C03000007 Sudan Invites Soviet Economic Delegation The Sudan has renewed an invitation extended to the USSR by the government of former Prime Minister Khalil to send an economic delegation to Kabul at a time of its choosing. The Sudan has been increasingly preoccupied with the problem of disposing of large stocks of long-staple cotton. Khartoum has asked for American marketing assistance in disposing of the estimated 230,000 bales of long-staple cot- ton already on hand before the near-record crop of about 620,000 bales comes on the market in March. The Sudanese ambassador in Cairo has asked if the United States might as- sign to the Sudan a part of the Egyptian quota for long-staple sales to the United States. Thus far the Sudan has been reluctant to enter into barter deals. However, the failure of traditional Western customers to increase their purchases has probably encouraged the gov- ernment to accept a large barter deal with the USSR. Already Khartoum has bartered small quantities of cotton to Bulgaria, Hungary, and Communist China. It is also possible that the Sudan would ask for Soviet aid in construction of a number of Nile River development projects for which it has, thus far, been unable to secure Western aid in the absence of an agreement with Egypt to share the Nile waters. Since these Nile works would intensify the Nile waters dispute with Egypt, the Soviet reaction to such a request re- mains problematical. CONFIDENTIAL 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page,8 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for Rel-eTs-e--:-26-2-6,01/23 C03000007 Now' Num? Iran Increasingly Concerned Over Iraqi Developments The Iranian Senate, unanimously approved the government's use of force if Iraq should come under the dominance of either Nasir or the Com- munists. Other courses of action being studied by Iran include di- version of all irrigation waters now flowing from Iran into Iraq and closure of the common border. Iran,has already tight- ened passport and frontier controls, and Iraq also apparently intends to seal its side of the border. Its refusal on 18 Decem- ber to permit overflight by a Pan-American airliner bound from Tehran to Beirut may be a first move in this direction. Secret police are keeping Iraqis in Iran under surveil- lance and may soon arrest some of their Iranian contacts. To prepare the public for possible use of these measures, the Iranian prime minister has ordered the press to publish edi- torials urging the government to take stronger action toward Iraq. While the Iranian Government is alarmed over the threat of a hostile Iraq armed by the Soviet Union, it may be dram- atizing its position in order to reinforce its appeal for further US military and economic aid. 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 � Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Aare Nose Burma Disengaging Itself From Loan Obligations to USSR Premier Ne Win informed Soviet construction missions in Rangoon on 16 December that they must complete their "gift projects really free of charge, .." or "leave." These projects, which include a hotel, hospital, and technical in- stitute, had originally been offered to Burma free of charge by Bulganin and Ithrushchev during their 1956 visit to Burma, but former Prime Minister U Nu subsequently insisted that Burma pay all local currency expenses and repay the foreign currency required in 20 annual installments of rice. The total cost of these projects was estimated to be in the neighborhood of $502- 000,000. Ne Win sent the same demand to a Soviet mission overseeing the planning and execution of six agricultural projects, at least two of which will require small Soviet credits. The Burmese Government has previously refused to extend the contracts of the 22 members of the mission, but presumably now is prepared to let them stay on if Moscow will foot the bill. These policy decisions underscore Ne Win's impatience with his predecessors' concept of "reimbursable aid." In a conversa- tion with Ambassador McConaughy on 15 December, Ne Win said obsession with this "idea of politicians" had saddled the Burmese Government with too many foreign loans. Moreover, in referring to the termination of the contracts of two American advisory firms earlier in the month, the Burmese premier said that Burma could ill afford to support adviser staffs or carry out their "gran- diose" notions when it was in a period of economic retrenchment. He said Burma is, however, prepared to accept unconditional grant aid. SECRET 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 10 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for ReleYse:-26-6701/23 C03000007 N�as1 III. THE WEST Annulment of Leftist Victory in Guatemala City Election May Cause Violence The national electoral tribunal late on 17 December an- nulled the 7 December mayoral election in Guatemala City on a legal technicality. The candidate of the leftist but non- Communist Revolutionary party (PR) won the election. Rightists, who had, almost 60 percent of the votes but split them among three candidates, reacted bitterly to the election results, and'extremists urged an attempt to oust President Ydigoras, arguing that his relatively tolerant re- gime was responsible for leftist gains. The election annul- ment may foreshadow a shift by the President toward the repressive tactics being urged on him by these extremists, and.will in any case embitter the political cleavages in Guate- mala. In the long run, the annulment could seriously weaken his regime. The PR, Guatemala's strongest single political party and once a prime target for Communist infiltration and control, has just concluded a drastic purge of Communists and pro- Communists from its ranks. The adoption of repressive tac- tics against it now could undo the effect of the purge by seem- ing to support Communist contentions that all leftist elements must unite. The government may feel compelled to decree a form of martial law to deal with the violent demonstrations and coun- terdemonstrations which may be provoked by invalidation of the election. 19 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 11 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 repi lase' THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Special Adviser to the President The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director rvi-triirgir�rlatrnr r Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03000007 �__TOP SECRET '�/ f� 1 0 0\11Ptef41 gqi;TC73 AorAor.e.reAr.rAF