CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/10/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000846
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: October 23, 1954

W17/AM
4,4
97'4 OPZIA
for Release: 2019/08/13 C03000846/MV:00/00,4
23 October 1954
Copy No.
80
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANCE IN CLASS 7(
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 1-019
AUTH: -HR 70-2
DATE: 1 V) REVIEWER
"VIP #7.,.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India still considering Soviet steel plant (page 3
FAR EAST
2. Chinese Communists may be planning to take small island near
Tachens (page 3).
3. Delivery of life belts to Chinese Communists reported being
speeded (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French official optimistic after interview with Ho Chi Minh
(page 5)o
5. French concerned over deterioration throughout free Vietnam
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Western diplomats in Belgrade foresee no Yugoslav alignment
with East (page 6).
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GENERAL
India still considering Soviet steel plant:
The Indian minister of commerce and
industry told the American consul gen-
eral in Madras on 21 October that the
Soviet dffer to construct a steel plant in
ly tentative stage" and that, although India
recognizes Soviet political motives, it will accept if the terms of
the transaction are sufficiently advantageous. The plant would
have an annual capacity of 300,000 tons.
The minister stated that New Delhi
places its major hopes for steel expansion in persuading the Brit-
ish to build a 1,000,000-ton plant.
Comment: The USSR was reported in
early September to have proposed to furnish technicians and capi-
tal equipment to build an Indian steel mill to be financed by a
long-term Soviet credit on attractive terms. The importance at-
tached by the Soviet Union to increasing its influence in India is
evidenced by its apparent willingness to send this equipment to
India even though Satellite and Chinese needs for such equipment
are not satisfied.
This offer has been given serious con-
sideration by New Delhi, although the size of the projected plant
appears to be smaller than originally proposed. Indian industrial
experts who recently studied Soviet techniques in the USSR have
reportedly returned unimpressed with Soviet steel production
methods
FAR EAST
2. Chinese Communists may be planning to take small island near
Tachens:
23 Oct 54
The Chinese Communists may be plan-
ning action against Pishan, a small
island about 40 miles southwest of the
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Tachens,
Small numbers of
Chinese Communist troops and frogmen have landed on islands
adjacent to Pishan on several occasions since 3 October, and
Communist artillery now located on other nearby islands can reach
Pishano
Despite increased Commimist artillery
fire and ground and air reconnaissance activity in the Tachen area
during the past month,
an attack on the major Tachen bases
is not imminent.
Comment: Pishan is presently occupied
by approximately 1,500 Chinese Nationalist guerrillas, and the
Communists could take it with little effort. Its capture would not
be strategically important, but Peiping could make propaganda
claims of a "victory."
3. Delivery of life belts to Chinese Communists reported being
speeded:
Comment: The 300,000 life jackets
would equip most of the troops stationed opposite Formosa and
the Nationalist-held offshore islands. This order does not neces-
sarily imply an early large-scale attack against the Nationalists,
however, as some of the equipment may be for military units in
amphibious training for later operations.
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TOP SECRET
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The apparent disregard for secrecy in
placing the order in Hong Kong does not appear significant. The
Chinese Communist intention eventually to take all Nationalist-
held territory has been publicly and repeatedly stated since July.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French official optimistic after interview with Ho Chi Minh:
Jean Sainteny, French representative to
the Viet Minh who conferred with Ho CM
Minh on 18 October, told the American
consul in Hanoi that Ho appeared in bet-
was "surprisingly" disposed to maintain
relations with non-Communist countries. He described the Viet
Minh attitude toward maintaining France's cultural "presence" in
North Vietnam as encouraging.
Sainteny professed to have no illusions
about the genuineness of the Viet Minh brand of Communism--
which he termed moderate--but referred to a "strong unwilling-
ness" on the part of the Viet Minh to be completely absorbed into
the Sino-Soviet bloc.
Comment: During the 1946 French-Viet
Minh negotiations, in which Sainteny was prominent, Ho convinced
many Frenchmen that he was, above all, a Vietnamese patriot.
Sainteny is apparently of the opinion that the best interests of
France and the West lie in the encouragement of a Communist
Vietnam of the Titoist variety.
5. French concerned over deterioration throughout free Vietnam:
French officials in Indochina have re-
cently expressed considerable pessimism
over deteriorating military and political
conditions throughout free Vietnam, the
American ambassador in Saigon reports. In the view of Deputy
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Commissioner General Daridan, there is no possibility of "sav-
ing" Annarn south of the 17th parallel owing to the inadequacy of
the national government's authority outside the principal urban
centers. He feels, therefore, that efforts to counteract Viet Minh
influence must be concentrated in Cochinchina.
According to a member of General Ely's
staff, top French military authorities are becoming increasingly
alarmed by the deteriorating morale, discipline and effectiveness
of Vietnamese army troops and their leadership. The French high
command must use French Union forces for pacification and other
purposes, thus forcing them at times into action against Vietnamese
nationals and affording the Viet Minh excellent propaganda oppor-
tunities.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Western diplomats in Belgrade foresee no Yugoslav alignment with
East:
Diplomats in Belgrade generally agree
that the "sprint" in Orbit efforts to im-
prove relations may flatter and perhaps
even fluster the Yugoslays. The over-
whelming advantages Yugoslavia receives from its present align-
ment, however, preclude a basic reorientation from West to East
in the foreseeable future. The observers do not believe Moscow
can convince Belgrade that the USSR could match the West in pro-
viding economic and military aid, favorable trading terms, and
what amounts to a guarantee of national security on the basis of
respect for Yugoslavia's independence and noninterference in its
internal affairs. Yugoslav leaders, however, are not above at-
tempting to better their bargaining position with the West by
"judicious flirtation" with the Orbit.
American charg�iner sums up Yugo-
slav foreign policy as continued co-operation with the West in
consolidation of collective defense and cautious but willing ac-
ceptance of proffers from the Orbit for improved general rela-
tions.
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