CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/09/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000908
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: September 18, 1954

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18 September 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
t;Ct..IMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS g.
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: A4,1 is)
AUTH: HR 70-2
�ATE: j_ 7;4,1 to REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Bohlen sees indications of Soviet sensitivity on position in Asia (page 3).
2� East German party leader predicts Czech overtures to France (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
3.
FAR EAST
4�
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Vietnamese political crisis (page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
6. Ceylonese prime minister sees advantages in joining Manila pact (page 7).
7. General Thimayya may accompany Nehru to Peiping (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Quwatli's party seen winning Syrian elections (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. � Mendes- France favors Brussels Pact controls over West Germany (page 8
LATIN AMERICA
10. Dominican Republic may be center of plot against. Costa Rica (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. Bohlen sees indications of Soviet sensitivity on position in Asia:
Ambassador Bohlen feels that the recent
Soviet Foreign Ministry statement against
the Manila pact, issued before there had
been any comparable official Chinese re-
action, indicates that the USSR is sensitive about its position in Asia.
It also may foreshadow a Soviet diplomatic approach for a general
Asian collective security arrangement.
Bohlen further cites Molotov's 12 September
statement on the resumption of relations with Japan, and an earlier
Soviet request for an invitation to the contemplated Djakarta confer-
ence, as evidence of attempts by Moscow to counter the "Asia for
the Asians" formula which would appear to give Peiping exclusive
leadership in Asia.
The statement made no reference to Chinese
claims on Formosa, and Soviet propaganda has avoided any commit-
ment to the Chinese "liberation" propaganda.
Comment: There is always the possibility
that Peiping's role has become larger than Moscow wishes, and the
Foreign Ministry's statement appears to be an effort to reassert
Moscow's pre-eminence in Asia. The Communist theme of Asia for
the Asians is believed, however, to represent a joint Sino-Soviet
maneuver aimed at exploiting neutralist and anticolonial sentiment
in the Far East rather than an effort by Peiping to enhance its own
stature at Moscow's expense,
Peiping has failed to develop Chou En-lai's
hints at Geneva that the Communists might bid for an all-Asian secu-
rity pact. In direct dealings with other Far Eastern leaders, Chou
has emphasized the need for bilateral agreements on the basis of his
vague five principles for "nonaggression."
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2. East German party leader predicts Czech overtures to France:
Comment: Czechoslovakia can be expected
to follow the Polish lead by making proposals to the French for visits
of political delegations, economic offers, and perhaps a treaty of
alliance. Poland, Hungary, and Rumania have already started nego-
tiating outstanding disputed issues with France. Soviet propaganda,
however, has not yet exploited the Polish alliance offer.
SOVIET UNION
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FAR EAST
4,
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4.1.1
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Vietnamese political crisis:
e prolongation of the political crisis in
ietnam has further weakened Premier Diem's
osition, with the dispute between Diem and
neral Hinh tending to develop into a full-
cale break between the civil government and
he army,
iem's appointment of General Nguyen Van
Huaonepusrouueiense minister on 17 September is apparently the
result of General Hinh's verbal, and not necessarily firm, assurance
two days earlier that he would be willing to leave the country within a
few days if Xuan were given the defense post. Xuan's candidacy for
this position had been put forward by the Cao Dai sect on 13 September.
� This suggests that the current tactic of the government is to come to
terms with the Cao Dai in the hope of gaining its support in disposing
of Hinh.
General Xuan, who was the first premier
under Bao Dai, is highly suspect in the eyes of Vietnamese national-
ists. He is a French citizen closely identified with French policy
since the war. During the Geneva conference he hinted at the desira-
bility of a rapprochement with the Viet Minh.
Top French officials ,in Saigon, apparently
under instructions from Paris, are taking advantage of the current
crisis to redouble their demands that ex-premier Tam be brought
into the government. Earlier, Diem stated he would resign rather
than accept Tam.
Meanwhile, a member of the previous Viet-
namese cabinet, now in Paris, has implied that Bao Dai would soon
replace Diem. The chief of state, now in France, has appeared to be
supporting the premier in the present crisis but he is capable of under-
cutting him at any time.
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SOUTH ASIA
. Ceylonese prime minister sees advantages in joining Manila pact:
Ceylonese prime minister Kotelawala told
Ambassador Crowe on 16 September that,
following a careful study of the full text of
the Manila pact, he can see many advan-
tages and no disadvantage in Ceylon's joining. He added that the
cabinet would make no decision on the pact until he returned from
his forthcoming visit to the United States.
Kotelawala said he was doing his best,
through the Indian high commissioner, to persuade Prime Minister
Nehru to take a more realistic view of the Communist menace.
Comment: Kotelawala has previously
stated his desire to have -Ceylon join the Manila pact. Strong inter-
nal "neutralist" opinion and opposition within the cabinet precluded
Ceylon's participation in the Manila conference, however.
In view of Nehru's firm public position on
this issue, Kotelawala is unlikely to have much success in changing
India's position on the pact.
7. General Thimayya may accompany Nehru to Peiping:
General K. S. Thimayya, commandant of
India's Western Command and former
chairman of the Neutral Nations Repatri-
ation Commission in Korea, has been
as e y Prime Minister Nehru to accomnanvJLm to Peiping in
October, Thimayya was at
first relut,t4ILL Lo go DM now plans to accept the invitation.
Comment: Nehru was said to be piqued
at the acclaim Thimayya received in Korea. Thimayya was con-
sidered by the Americans in Korea to be able and generally pro-
American. As the highest ranking Indian officer with some firsthand
knowledge of Chinese Communists, he is the logical person to serve
as Nehru's military adviser in Peiping.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Quwatli's party seen winning Syrian elections:
In Syria, the Nationalist Party of ex-
president Shukri Quwatli will probably win
a majority in the parliamentary elections
to be held on 24 September,
.. it is doubtful that any
Communist candidate w1 i win even though IChalid Bakdash, the lead-
ing Communist in the Arab world, is a strong contender for a seat
from Damascus.
Comment: Prospects for relative stability
in Syria are currently better than at any time in the past six months.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Mendes- France favors Brussels Pact controls over West Germany:
Following his talks with British foreign
ecretary Eden, French premier 1VIendes-
France told American officials in Paris
t he could wholeheartedly seek National
ssembly approval for onn membership in NATO if it were packaged
with a tightened Brussels Pact to control German rearmament. Mendes-
France agreed to this only, after considerable pressure from Eden, how-
ever.
The premier said that the Brussels Pact plan
would have to be presented to the National Assembly as an EDC alter-
native which has the advantage of British participation while avoiding
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an independent Wehrmacht and the supranational aspects of EDC.
He accepted the idea that NATO would administer controls on German
rearmament, but specified that the Brussels Pact council would make
the necessary political decisions.
Eden commented to General Gruenther on
16 September that Mendes-France's desire to build up the Brussels
treaty and soft-pedal the significance of German admission to NATO
makes the problem difficult to solve.
Comment: Eden's trip appears to have
accomplished its primary purpose of establishing a common ground
for discussing the cardinal points ir the British proposal for an .EDC
alternative�German xnembership in NATO and revision of the Brussels
treaty. French assembly support for German membership in NATO
is still quite doubtful, however, and at the nine-power conference pro-
posed for later this month Mendes- France will probably insist on
tighter controls than those envisaged in the British proposal.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Dominican Republic may be center of plot against Costa Rica:
The Dominican government informed the
American embassy in Ciudad Trujillo on
14 September that it cannot co-operate
with the United States in preventing the
overthrow of the Figueres regime in Costa
Rica.
The embassy reports that former Costa Rican
president Calderon Guardia, Venezuelan national security chief Estrada,
and representatives of the Cuban and Nicaraguan governments are in
Ciudad Trujillo, and comments that the city "may be the focal point
of plotting against Costa Rica."
Comment: Costa Rica has no military forces
except a lightly armed 1400-man police force.
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Dominican dictator Trujillo, who has publicly
termed the democratic Figueres a Communist, has recently made state-
ments to the press reiterating his advocacy of joint armed intervention
by the American republics to combat Communism in the Western Hemis-
phere. As recently as 9 September, however, Dominican officials, in
response to an embassy inquiry, denied their government was involved
in plotting against Figueres.
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