CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/09/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000932
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: September 1, 1954

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1 September 1954
3.3(h)(2)
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 04.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS X
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
C.TE.1M% SO _ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
80
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NEW
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. London embassy comments on British Southeast Asia policy (page 3).
. Chu En-lai suggests that Nehru and Nu visit Peiping together
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnamese foreign minister pessimistic on premier's chances of
staying in office (page 4).
4.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iran intensifies suppression of opposition (page 6).
6. Israeli opposition growing to American policies in Middle East
(page 6).
7. Egypt decides not to request American military aid (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
C. Adenauer to seek German NATO membership (page 8)0
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GENERAL
1. London embassy comments on British Southeast Asia policy:
Britain's recent demarche objecting to a
proposed American military mission to
Cambodia was motivated by a desire to
avoid serious differences at the forthcom-
ing Manila conference on Southeast Asia
defense, in the opinion of the American
embassy in London.
The British apparently consider such a
mission would violate the spirit of the Geneva agreements, which
they believe put both Cambodia and Laos in the same "political
category" with regard to outside military aid, and would provoke a
strong reaction from Communist China.
Comment: There have been various
indications that London considers the Geneva conference resulted
in an understanding with the Communists for the neutralization of
Cambodia and Laos. In the interest of securing a lessening of
tension in the Far East, Britain opposes any Western move that
the Chinese Communists might regard as provocative.
2. Chou En-lai suggests that Nehru and Nu visit Peiping together:
1 Sept 54
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Comment: Peiping would welcome visits
by any of the leaders of the Colombo powers, all of which recog-
nize Communist China. The dramatic impact on other Asian capitals
would be greater if two or more such neutralist leaders were to make
the tour together.
Early October--following the SEAP meet-
ing in Manila--may have been suggcsted as a good time for the Commu-
nists to illustrate the amount of Asian opposition to a Western-sponsored
security arrangement in the Far East,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnamese foreign minister pessimistic on premier's chances of
staying in office:
Vietnamese foreign minister Tran Van Do,
who is a loyal supporter of Premier Diem,
told Ambassador Heath on 28 August he
believed Diem would soon be out of office
unless he could be persuaded to accept a position as a figurehead and
let key cabinet ministers work out their own deals with opposition
groups.
The foreign minister characterized Diem as
an "austere saint," incapable of inspiring the personal devotion of
other than idealists, and saw little hope of his winning the support of
the war lord groups in south Vietnam. Diem failed to act on certain
demands of these groups for cabinet positions and they, in the mean-
time, ybined together to oppose him.
Comment: Tran Van Do's observations are
the first expression of real pesginiism by a member of Diem's govern-
ment.
1 Sept 54
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Nor
The premier lacks any political organization
comparable in strength to that of the combined opposition groups. With-
out being able to depend on the Vietnam army and in the face of French
opposition, Diem's position is precarious.
4.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iran intensifies suppression of opposition:
The current roundup of Tudeh members
is continuing at a spectacular rate, accord-
ing to the American army attach�n Tehran.
He reports that recent arrests include offi-
cers in the army, police, and gendarmerie
�Uis civilians. Many individuals arrested occupied sensitive
positions and over 200 arrests are expected.
The attach�omments that the government
is acting with energy a.nd efficiency in spite of inadequate machinery
for such an operation and that a large well-organized Tudeh network
of officers in the three services is being broken.
Comment:, This wave of arrests appears to
be a sudden intensification orPrime Minister Zahecli's program of
Communist suppression. Although Iranian officials are inclined to
publicize the current campaign as routine, it may be intended to fore-
stall the expected development of strong anti-Zahedi movements soon
after submission of the oil settlement to the Majlis in mid-September.
The arrests have been accompanied by a
widespread shuffling of high-level military personnel not accused of
Tudeh affiliations. Under the cover of this new anti-Tudeh campaign,
the government can also attack various non-Communist factions and
individuals antagonistic to the regime.
6. Israeli opposition growing to American policies in Middle East:
American charg�ussell believes that
Israeli ambassador Eban, currently on
leave from Washington to report his re-
cent talks with Secretary Dulles, may be
supporting Minister of Defense Lavon and those others in the
Israeli government who strongly oppose American policies in the
Middle East,
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Russell stated that Eban was issuing strong
statements critical of the United States to the local and foreign press.
Russell also noted that Finance Minister Eshkol and Chief of Staff
Dayan had a closed three-hour meeting with former premier Ben-
Gurion on 28 August.
Comment: The Suez settlement has
resulted in a reappraisal by Israel of its position and in an in-
creased desire for more military aid. If Eban and Eshkol, two
moderate and influential government officials, join forces with
Ben-Gurion, Lavon, and Dayan, long advocates of a tougher for-
eign policy, a hardening of Israel's position with regard to the
United States might be developing.
7. Egypt decides not to request American military aid:
Foreign Minister Fawzi told Ambassador
Caffer3r on 28 August that Egypt had de-
cided not to request American military aid
at this time. The decision, Fawzi said,
was based solely on internal political considerations. He stated
that the Nasr regime feared public reaction to the signing of the
necessary Mutual Defense Assistance agreement.
Fawzi urged that the amount of economic
assistance to Egypt be increased since it was not requesting mili-
tary aid.
Comment: London's announcement on
30 August that its embargo on arms shipments to Egypt was lifted
suggests that Cairo's unexpected decision on American military aid
� may have been influenced by the availability of British arms. Egypt's
decision reflects the Nasr regime's current concern over extremist
opposition to any overt association with the West. Rejection of
American military aid may generally have an adverse effect
in the Arab world.
1 Sept 54
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. Adenauer to seek German NATO membership:
As a result of EDC's defeat in the French
National Assembly, Chancellor Adenauer
Now favors outright admission of West
Germany to NATO, according to Herbert
Blankenhorn, a top official of the Bonn Foreign Ministry. Blankenhorn
states that in a meeting of coalition leaders on 1 September, the
chancellor will outline his new foreign program.
In addition to NATO membership, the
chancellor wants full sovereignty, the conclusion of a convention
for stationing foreign troops in the Federal Republic, and European
political integration without immediate military integration.
- Comment: The American embassy in Paris
foresees no major difficulties from France in putting the Bonn treaty
into effect. Adenauer's reported plan suggests, however, that he is
thinking of securing a larger grant of sovereignty for the Federal
Republic than accorded in the Bonn treaty.
The French press persistently emphasizes
the need of safeguards against German rearmament, and Mendes-
France's recent tactics suggest that he favors continued delay. Ac-
cording to Ambassador Dillon, the impression is stronger than ever
in Paris that the premier has received British assurances that un-
restricted German rearmament can be avoidld.
1 Sept 54
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