CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/09/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000939
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: September 11, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/13
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11 September 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: g 3-Zrk Xe REVIEWER;
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
France opposes controls over trade with Viet Minh area (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Amoy civil population prepared for possible military activity (page
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Thailand pressing for repatriation of Vietnamese (page 4
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
6.
Shah pledges full co-operation with Zahedi (page 4).
Zahedi concerned over extent of Communist penetration of Iranian
armed forces (narrp 51
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet administrators and technicians reported leaving Hungary
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Belgians and Dutch favor German entry into NATO and special
European association (page 7).
11 Sept 54
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GENERAL
1. France opposes controls over trade with Viet Minh area:
The British Foreign Office states that it
has received an informal communication
from the French embassy criticizing the
United States' insistence on controls over
trade with North Vietnam as "politically most inopportune and con-
trary to the principles of Vietnam unity agreed on at Geneva." The
French government, according to this statement, considers North
Vietnam still part of the French Union and has requested French
companies to remain there.
Comment: Ambassador Heath in Saigon
believes that exports to French enterprises in North Vietnam would
aid Communist China. France apparently hopes to maintain a
special position in Vietnam even if the Viet Minh wins control of
the entire country, and can be expected to resist vigorously any
proposal to make the present China trade controls apply to trade
with North Vietnam.
FAR EAST
2. Amoy civil population prepared for possible military activity:
During August, Chinese Communist
authorities organized Amoy fishermen
into companies with 20 fishing boats per
company, according to a Chinese fisher-
man from Amoy who was captured by the Nationalists on 8
September. It was rumored in the area that these boat companies
would transport troops to Formosa.
local propaganda
in late August stated that Formosa and Quemoy would soon be
"liberated." Amoy residents were ordered to store a month's
supply of food and water to be used in case of air raids and to build
air raid shelters.
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Comment: Preparations for a full-
scale attack on the Quemoys may well have been under way on the
mainland in August. It is uncertain whether Nationalist air and
sea strikes since 5 September against Communist targets in the
Amoy area have been successful in disrupting any such Communist
plan. In any case, observers report no indication
that such an invasion force is being assembled at this time.
An early Communist invasion of Formosa
is not believed to be within Peiping's military capabilities in view
of the American commitment to defend the island.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Thailand pressing for repatriation of Vietnamese:
Comment: The approximately 60, 000
Vietnamese in northeastern Thailand, most of whom are believed
to be Viet Minh sympathizers, constitute a serious security problem
for Thailand. Earlier efforts to resettle a portion of them in the
interior proved ineffective.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Shah pledges full co-operation with Zahedi:
The Shah
is determined to continue
supporting Prime Minister Zahedi as long
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as Zahedi combats corruption and improves the Iranian standard
of living. The Shah said that he will co-Operate fully with Zahedi
now that the oil problem has been settled and internal security
prevails. He charged that reports he has been encouraging pos-
sible successors to Zahedi are "exaggerated rumors."
Comment: This declaration of support
for Zahedi is probably intended to impress Washington. On the basis
of his previous behavior, his promise must be treated with reserve.
He is subject to the vagaries of Iranian politics and may keep Zahedi in
office only as long as the United States and Britain continue pressing
him to do so. The Shah has always shown jealousy of strong prime
ministers.
5. Zahedi concerned over extent of Communist penetration of Iranian
armed forces:
Prime Minister. Zahedi told Ambassador
Henderson on 7 September that he was
appalled by the long-standing Communist
success In penetrating the officer corps of
Iran's armed forces, gendarmerie and police _revealed in recently.
captured Communist documents. Many of the officers scheduled for
arrest as a result of these disclosures held responsible positions
and had reputations for honesty.
The proved ability of Soviet operatives to
survive many changes of government was illustrated by the admis-
sion of some of the arrested officers that they had been Soviet agents
for more than 20 years. Zahedi estimated that these officers could
have simultaneously assassinated all of Iran's key political and
military leaders.
Comment: More than 400 Iranian officers
have already been arrested in the current roundup of antigovernment
suspects.
11 Sept 54
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6.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet administrators and technicians reported leaving Hungary:
A "sizable number" of Soviet civilian ad-
ministrators and technicians in Hungary
are reported to
be preparing to return to the USSR. The
American legation believes that the withdrawals may be a result of
the over-all cutback in Hungarian government spending now under
way, and may be aimed at avoiding popular criticism that Soviet
advisers are being retained while large numbers of Hungarian work-
ers are being dismissed.
The legation reports that the Hungarian
population appears to be in an "excitable mood" as a consequence
of the uncertainty and anxiety growing out of the current wave of dis-
missals of government and industrial white-collar workers.
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Comment: More than 100,000 Hungarian
workers, mostly governmiliFiliFfndustrial office workers, are
reported to have been dismissed in the past few weeks in an effort
to divert funds to the new investment program. These dismissals
have reportedly resulted in instances of worker resistance requir-
ing police action.
In addition to cutting government expend-
itures, the reduction in the number of Soviet advisers will lessen
public awareness of Soviet control and give the appearance of greater
sovereignty to the government. While a number of Soviet advisers
attached to Czech agriculture and the Polish shipbuilding industry have
also reportedly returned to the USSR during the past year, there has
been no similar reduction reported in the number of Soviet advisers
in the Satellite military or security organizations.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Belgians and Dutch favor German entry into NATO and special
European association:
Officials of both the Belgian and Dutch
Foreign Ministries have stated that their
countries favor West German admission
to NATO, with subsequent efforts to develop
safeguards, possibly within a special
grouping of Western European nations.
Belgian foreign minister Spaak told
American embassy counselor Sprouse on 7 September that he is
opposed to any "little NATO" concept.
A Dutch Foreign Ministry spokesman told
American officials on 8 September that there was some skepticism
about German rearmament under self-imposed restrictions that
could be thrown off at any moment.
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