CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/17

Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03001362
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
6
Document Creation Date: 
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 17, 1954
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689421].pdf174.56 KB
Body: 
F17/7/7#1,)77-v0- for Releasej 2.4912.fraci""13W3 / / 01 Copy No. 80 3.5(c) )(el; .. 17 June 1954 3.3(h 2 0 0�I $ / CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN ,If/ / . �,// // DOCUMENT NO. 20 NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 01 Li DECLASSIFIED 'e� CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C AUTH: HR 70-2 .47-44) 2/1 NExT REvIEW DATE: AO/ 0 DATE: -:9 REVIEWER: '. //4 I 4df7. Office of Current Intelligence 4/ / CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 0� ''-- 04:00 4 $ (/ Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 4lale NM. SUMMARY SOUTHEAST ASIA 1. Comment on prospective Vietnamese premier (page 3). 2. Ely pessimistic on Tonkin delta prospects (page 3). 3. Haiphong munitions dump reported threatened by Viet Minh (page 4). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Nasr moves toward removal of Nagib from Egyptian presidency (page 4). LATIN AMERICA 5. Brazil sees no general agreement on US resolution prior to OAS meeting (page 5). 6. Guatemalan army officers see Arbenz stalling on ultimatum (page 6). * * * * - 2 - 17 June 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 SOUTHEAST ASIA 1. Comment on prospective Vietnamese premier Rumors that Premier Buu Loc had submitted his resignation to Bao Dai were confirmed on 16 June by an offi- cial communique from the premier's office. Bao Dai's choice as premier-designate is the prominent Catholic layman, Ngo Dinh Diem. Bao Dal's reported decision to appoint Diem at this critical juncture has given rise to speculation that his motive is simply to set up a scapegoat government to bear the onus of signing an unfavorable truce agreement with the Viet Minh. Diem has been out of public office for more than 20 years and out of the country for more than four. Re- ports of his appointment have elicited considerable comment as to his qualifications and intentions. Even the most favorable comment on Diem's qualifications has been somewhat reserved, his advocates conceding that his alleged popularity and well-established honesty are to some extent offset by his arrogance, inexperience, and im- practicality. The American consul in Hanoi has ex- pressed concern at reports that Diem was considering the re ment of north Vietnam's capable governor, Nguyen Huu Tn. 2. Ely pessimistic on Tonkin delta prospects General Ely, in conversation with the American charg�n Saigon on 15 June, termed the Tonkin delta military situation "precarious." He said that French and Vietnamese troops are "very, very tired" and that the enemy now holds about two thirds of all delta villages. Ely clearly Indicated his personal doubt that the delta could be held without out-, side reinforcements of from two to three divisions. -3- 17 June 54 Approved for Release:. 201_9/08/02 C03001362_ Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 4�100., Nor The French commander in chief also commented on the low state of the Vietnamese government and ex- pressed the feeling that Ngo Dinh Diem, the reported premier- designate, would probably prove ineffectual in rallying support for the government. 3. Haiphong munitions dump reported threatened by Viet Minhu destruction of the dump would almost level Haiphong. Comment Viet Minh sabotage capa- bilities, despite French security measures, are considerable. The most recent incident apparently attributable to Viet Minh saboteurs was the partial destruction of a 5,000-ton munitions dump near Saigon on 2 June, NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Nasr moves toward removal of Nagib from Egyptian presidency -4 17 June 54 Approved 774,-R-ele-a's-e:26-17/0-8/02 C03001362 Approved for Release: 2019%08/02 C03001362 44�0 Photographs of Nagib in government offices are being replaced by Koranic verses and several thousand photographs of Nasr are ready for display, The change- over is expected prior to the celebration of the regime's second anni- versary on 23 July. Comment Nasr is unlikely to remove Nagib from the presidency until he is certain he can control the situa- tion. Meanwhile the Nasr regime has adopted a policy of discrediting Nagib. LATIN AMERICA 5. Brazil_sees no general agreement on US resolution prior to OAS meeting The ministry noted that a number of coun- tries were offering reservations and that little time was available for negotiation. It added that the meeting itself is the "proper place" to reach agreement, and that insistence on prior agreement may "compromise the very principle of calling the meeting." Comment Brazil has offered to intercede with other governments on behalf of American objectives in this case, but is not itself committed to the text of the resolution proposed by Washington on 5 June. 5 P7"../1 r-1.re rw-J Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 17 June 54 Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001362 %ow The argument that the OAS meeting is the proper place to work out a resolution runs counter to the belief of several other countries that lack of prior agreement will invite a fiasco. To date, eight governments are committed to the American resolution without serious reservation. Fourteen votes are needed for action. 6. Guatemalan army officers see Arbenz stalling on ultimatum: A group of Guatemalan army officers led by Colonel Elfego Monzon was pressing for the immediate ouster of President Arbenz, even prior to his reply to an army ultimatum Arbenz is said to have agreed to resign, but only on certain unac- ceptable conditions, and these officers believe he is merely stalling. Comment: Arbenz will have to make significant concessions to the anti-Communist army officers or risk ouster. He has been under growing army pressure to reverse his pro-Communist policies since as long ago as last November. Colonel Monzon, minister without portfolio in the Arbenz cabinet and an influential officer, claimed a majority of the army's officers would join him in a move against the government. 6- 17 Tune 54 'v Approved for ' r' re 'R'leasre:1361-1 F/678/02 C03001362