CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03001363
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 18, 1954

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18 June 1954
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Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. / /
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 2
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: efits5137 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO.P-SECALE-
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S UM MARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on 16 June session on Indochina at Geneva (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet ground-attack air regiments in East Germany converting
to jets (page 3).
3. Tentative indication of Soviet aerial refueling activity (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Japanese government blames Diet violence on American
occupation policies (page 4).
5. Chinese Communists building road toward Burma (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Tonkin governor Tri reported to have resigned (page 5).
7. Hanoi's rice reserves sufficient for 20 days (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Turkish and Pakistani prime ministers agree on policies toward
Iraq and Iran (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Argentina conditions support of OAS meeting on change in site
(page 9).
LATE ITEM
11. Comment on Mendes-France's investiture (page 9).
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GENERAL
Comment on 16 June session on Indochina at Geneva:
The two small concessions offered by
the Communists in the 16 June meeting
on Indochina seem designed to keep the
Geneva conference alive without com-
mitting the Communists to a definite withdrawal from their maximum
demands.
The Communists previously insisted on
a four-state international truce supervisory commission which would
Include two Communist states. Molotov now proposes an Asian neu-
tral such as Indonesia as a fifth member, or as the third member of
a three-state commission along with Poland and India. The major
decisions before the commission would still require unanimity.
The Communists had also insisted from the
start that military and political settlements include Laos and Cambodia
as well as Vietnam. Chou En-lai made a proposal on 16 June for a
military settlement which implied the possibility of a withdrawal of
Viet Minh forces from those states, and the Viet Minh delegate pro-
posed a political settlement for Vietnam which would postpone settle-
ments in Laos and Cambodia. These proposals would leave the
Communists free to return later to their previous demands.
While seeking to prolong the conference, the
Communists seem to be preparing for a possible early breakdown.
They have urged that direct French-Viet Minh military talks get un-
der way in the field as well as at Geneva, and that direct political
talks be arranged. Such talks would open the way for moving all the
Indochina negotiations to the field in the manner of the Panmunjom talks.
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet ground-attack air regiments in East Germany converting to jets:
3
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During 1953, MIG-equipped Soviet fighter
units in Europe and the Far East engaged in considerable ground-
attack practice. Re-equipment of ground-attack units with MIG's sug-
gests that the Soviet air force will no longer produce a specialized
aircraft type for the ground-attack mission.
Such a development, which may reflect
Soviet evaluation of American use of jet fighter-bombers in Korea,
would simplify Soviet tactical air procurement and maintenance.
3. Tentative indication of Soviet aerial refueling activity:
Comment: This analysis, if verified,
would provide the first indication that aerial refueling techniques
are being used by the Soviet air force. Use of these techniques by
a naval fighter unit outside the USSR would suggest that aerial refuel-
ing operations have been conducted inside the Soviet Union for some
time.
Conduct of such operations by the Long
Range Air Force would significantly increase Soviet capabilities for
intercontinental warfare.
FAR EAST
4. Japanese government blames Diet violence on American occupation
policies:
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Comment: Conservative elements in Japan
have frequently blamed the United States for weakening the central
police system, thus encouraging the activities of left-wing elements.
This attempt to blame the United States and overlook the government's
own shortcomings in coping with leftist violence is a further indica-
tion of a growing Japanese sensitivity over relations with the United
States that was first sharply revealed by the atomic radiation incident.
5. Chinese Communists building road toward Burma:
A 156-mile highway from Nanchien--near
Mitu on the Burma Road in Yunnan Province--
southwest to Mienning has been opened to
truck traffic, according to a New China News
Agency broadcast from Kunming on 1 June (see map, p. 6). The road
is identified as part of the 304-mile Nanchien-Nanta highway, construc-
tion of which was started in April 1953.
Comment: This highway, which was not
known to be under construction; fills a large gap in Communist China's
highway system in its southwest border region. It is the only motor
road between the Burma Road and the recently completed military road
to Cheli near the Sino-Burmese-Indochina border junction. This devel-
oping network of roads in southwest Yunnan Province will increase the
mobility of the units of the 13th and 14th Armies that are stationed
along China's southwest border.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Tonkin governor Tri reported to have resigned:
Governor Nguyen Huu Tri submitted his
resianation to Premier Buu Loc on 14 June,
The
reasons for his action are said to have been
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personal fatigue and friction between the regional and central
governments. Tri also believes the replacement of Buu Loc by
Ngo Dinh Diem will not improve matters.
Tri
may have been planning to resign when he quietly sent his family to
France around the first of June.
Comment: The American consul in
Hanoi recently reported Tri's exhaustion and deplored the possi-
bility that this most able administrator might be removed. Tri is
said to have threatened about two weeks ago to resign if Diem were
appointed premier.
7. Hanoi's rice reserves sufficient for 20 days:
Hanoi at present has rice stocks of about
2,000 tons, according to an estimate of
the Vietnamese director of the Regional
Economic Service there. Under optimum
conditions, the city might be able to maintain itself for 20 days with-
out resupply. This period would be shortened if, in the confusion of
an emergency, the internal distribution system broke down.
Comment: Viet Minh efforts against
Hanoi's supply lines are expected to grow in intensity. The enemy,
by cutting the city's communications with Haiphong more frequently
and for progressively longer periods of time, could whittle down the
city's reserves to the point of strangulation.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Turkish and Pakistani prime ministers agree on policies toward
'Iraq and Iran:
Turkish prime minister Menderes told
Ambassador Warren on 14 June that he
and Pakistani premier Mohammed All
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completely agree on the necessity of bringing combined pressure on
Iraq and Iran to join the Turkish-Pakistani pact.
Menderes said he and Ali regard the course
of the Iraqi government with respect to the pact as ambiguous, un-
certain, and irresponsible. They have agreed, therefore, to withhold
pressure on Iraq to join the agreement until a new government has
been formed, at which time the Iraqis would be told in no uncertain
terms to "fish or cut bait."
The ministers also decided (1) to en-
courage Iranian adherence to the pact, (2) to show a positive interest
in the solution of the Iranian oil problem as a major economic prerequi-
site to the development of Iran's armed forces, and (3) to give full
support to the shah and the Zahedi government.
Ali offered to make Pakistani military units
available for an expeditionary force to support Iraq and Iran after they
join the pact, should the necessity arise, and expressed willingness
to accept outside assistance in the event of aggression against Pakistan.
EASTERN EUROPE
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Nor
LATIN AMERICA
10. Argentina conditions support of OAS meeting on change in site:
Argentine foreign minister Remorino told
Ambassador Nufer on 16 June that Argentina
will Support the proposal for an Organization
of American States meeting on Guatemala
only if the meeting is not held in Uruguay. At a meeting in Montevideo,
he said, the Argentine delegation might be subjected to "indignities if
not physical violence" by extremists among the Argentine exiles there.
Remorino offered to "reconsider" Argen-
tina's insistence that the proposed meeting be called under the OAS
charter rather than under the inter-American defense treaty.
Comment: Argentina, though committed
in principle to an OAS meeting on Guatemala; has not yet approved the
text of the resolution proposed by Washington. The objection to
Uruguay as a site, shared by Venezuela, appears held equally firmly
by both Remorino and President Peron, who are not always in accord
on foreign policy.
Remorino's statements suggest that Argentina
now is willing to drop certain of its objections to Washington's proposals
in return for a change in the proposed site for a meeting.
LATE ITEM
11. Comment on Mendes-France's investiture:
The unexpected victory of Radical Socialist
Pierre Mendes-France in his bid for the
French premiership poses a serious threat
to American policy in Europe as well as in
Southeast Asia. Mendes-France has long maintained that the Indochina
war was too great a drain on the French economy. He has also argued
that EDC ratification should be delayed until France can compete with
West Germany on a more equal basis than present indications hold
possible.
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Nye
While the 17 June vote of 419 in favor of
investure--with 47 opposition votes and 154 abstentions--is only
assembly endorsement of Mendes-France personally, the strong sup-
port and the small opposition vote are indications that he should face
little difficulty in forming a cabinet. He had stated before the vote that
he did not want Communist support, and his government will not be
dependent on the 99 Communists who voted for him. The Socialists,
who have been in opposition since 1951, may be reluctant to accept par-
liamentary responsibility, despite their support for his candidacy. If
the Popular Republicans persist in opposing him, he may be obliged
to form a preponderantly rightist cabinet.
Mendes-France's dramatic promise to
resign if no Indochina solution is in sight by 20 July may have influ-
enced the decisive votes. He gave no details, however, of how he ex-
pects to improve on Laniel's policy. Presumably Bidault will not go
back to Geneva and there will be a new team in the Foreign Ministry,
which has been a Popular Republican monopoly almost from the begin-
ning of the Fourth Republic. Mendes-France's bargaining power with
the Communists will be considerably restricted by the 20 July dead-
line he has set for himself.
With the Popular Republicans in opposition
for the first time since World War II, Mendes- France will not, be un-
der the same pressure as his predecessors to bring EDC to debate,
although he has made a vague promise to achieve a "compromise
satisfactory to the majority of the country" on this issue before the
assembly adjourns.
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