CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03001373
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 30, 1954

pproved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03001373,
30 June 1954 3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)o
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
HR 70-2
DATE: 2/7/c40 REVIEWER: JL
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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AGENCY A#2.-Rcium
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Indian vice president sees little result from Chou-Nehru talks
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
p. Another regular Viet Minh division may be headed for Tonkin
delta (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Henderson says Iran needs emergency aid despite prospects
of oil settlement (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Soviet ambassador urgently requests interview with Tito (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Adenauer reported willing to renegotiate EDC treaty (page 6).
LATE ITEM
7. Comment on the Guatemalan negotiations (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Indian vice president sees little result from Chou-Nehru talks:
2.
Most of Chou En-lai's conferences with
Indian officials were just "talk," accord-
ing to Indian vice president Radhakrishnan.
Radhakrishnan said he gained the impres-
sion that Chou's expressions were perfunctory and that Peiping would
pursue its policies regardless of Indian views.
There were serious conversations, how-
ever, on Indochina and Tibet. Regarding Indochina, Radhakrishnan
believes Peiping really desires a negotiated peace and that an armi-
stice satisfactory to both sides is a genuine possibility. Tibet was
the major topic of the talks, and Radhakrishnan stated that Nehru
repeatedly expressed to Chou concern over China's apparently im-
perialistic policy.
American charg�eil believes that Nehru
kept realities in mind during Chou's visit and was not lulled into
complacency. He also reports a consensus among diplomats and
Indian officials that the visit had little effect on Sino-Indian rela-
tions.
FAR EAST
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Another regular Viet Minh division may be headed for Tonkin delta:
According to the American army attach�
in Saigon, the French air force reports
that the Viet Minh 312th Division, which
fought at Dien Bien Phu, may be moving
toward the northwest corner of the delta.
The attach�omments that the enemy prob-
ably plans to create the threat of immediate
action against the delta in order to over-
come any French-Vietnamese hesitanco to
meet Viet Minh terms during the imminent cease-fire discussions.
An American correspondent in Hanoi states
that the local French censor cleared a story to his press service to
the effect that the French are giving up most of the Tonkin delta with-
out a fight and that the anticipated truce talks will merely formalize
agreements already reached. When the correspondent indicated sur-
prise at this clearance, the censor replied, "But it is true, and you
and I know it."
Comment: The only Viet Minh division
whose entry into the delta has been confirmed by French intelli-
gence is the 304th. Two regiments of this division, also present at
Dien Bien Phu, are now in the, southern delta.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Henderson says Iran needs emergency aid despite prospects of oil
settlement:
Ambassador Henderson's revised schedule
for an Iranian oil settlement indicates Iran
cannot expect substantial oil revenues be-
fore November or December, and the con-
sortium refuses to consider advances because of expected large
expenses for rehabilitating and operating the oil industry.
Fiscal strains in Iran's economy are
already apparent and are expected to become acute by August. The
ambassador is convinced Iran will need an additional $10,000,000 for
the period 20 August to 20 October.
Henderson's present recommendation is
In addition to his earlier suggestion that the United States grant Iran
$80,000,000 in economic and financial aid during the 12 months fol-
lowing an oil settlement.
Comment: Since Prime Minister Zahedi
assumed office, the United States has contributed $60, 000, 000 in
emergency aid in addition to economic and military grants of
$46,000,000. Without this aid, Iran would have been bankrupt and
any chance for political stability destroyed.
Henderson has suggested that oil produc-
tion may be resumed in Iran soon after 1 October. This reflects
his optimism over the progress of the oil negotiations despite the
Increasing Iranian political tensions. Considerable haggling and
various adjustments within the agreement will probably occur before
final settlement can be reached.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Soviet ambassador urgently requests interview with Tito:
According to Yugoslav foreign secretary
Popovic, Soviet ambassador Valkov
recently returned from his second trip
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to Moscow in two months and urgently requested an interview with
Marshal Tito. The interview will probably take place on 30 June
at Brioni.
Popovic was unable to learn the reason
for this request, but suspects that the Balkan military alliance may
be discussed.
Comment: Beyond recent manifes-
tations. of diplomatic cordiality, there has been no indication of a
basically new approach by Moscow toward Belgrade.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Adenauer reported willing to renegotiate EDC treaty:
According to a French Foreign Ministry
official, French deputy high commissioner
Berard in Germany has informed Paris
that despite his public statements, Chancel-
or Acienauer is willing to accept new negotiations on the EDC treaty.
To obtain French National Assembly approval of EDC, Adenauer
would even be willing to accept modifications or additions requiring
new ratification by the German legislature.
Berard recommended that two high offi-
,
cials of the French Foreign Ministry who are scheduled to visit Bonn
this week propose to Adenauer changes in the treaty to lessen its supra-
national aspects.
Comment: Adenauer would probably prefer
to postpone any discussion�aTiialrications in the EDC treaty until it
is clear that Mendes-France cannot make progress with the present
text. While there are reports that Mendes-France is willing to pre-
sent the EDC treaty as it stands if he thinks the assembly cannot agree
on modifications acceptable to the five other powers, Berard's report
that Adenauer is weakening may encourage the premier to press for
modifications.
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LATE ITEM
7. Comment on the Guatemalan negotiations
The new Guatemalan military junta headed
by Colonel Elfego Monzon has arranged
through American Ambassador Peurifoy
and the Salvadoran government to enter
into negotiations with rebel leader Cas-
tillo Armas designed to work out terms
for a peace settlement.
The negotiations are tentatively sched-
uled to take place in San Salvador be-
ginning at noon on 30 June. The junta
has asked the papal nuncio in Guatemala
to act as an impartial witness at the pro-
ceedings.
Meanwhile both government and rebel
radios in Guatemala have announced a cease-fire.
Castillo Armas has reportedly stipulated
that his consent to enter into negotiations does not obligate him
to come to any agreement. The two sides are, however, be-
lieved predisposed to reach a settlement. There are reports
that one and possibly both of Monzon's fellow junta members
are favorably inclined toward Castillo Armas.
Monzon himself, though a cabinet min-
ister in the Arbenz regime, has long been considered strong-
ly anticommunist. A few hours after becoming interior min-
ister in the short-lived junta headed by Colonel Carlos Enri-
que Diaz, Monzon ordered the arrest of all known Communist
leaders. Many of these are now reported to have found. asy-
lum in the Argentine Chilean and Mexican embassies in
Guatemala City.
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