CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03001374
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 1, 1954

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1 July 1954 3.3(h)(2)
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO :Ye
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
n DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ,e(21_0_
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE-Y/4/80 _REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. COCOM controls on ship sales may break down (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR announces opening of atomic power station (page 3).
3. TU-4's active at eight Soviet Arctic bases (page 4).
4. USSR believed using airborne intercept radar (page 4).
FAR EAST
5. japan seen moving to normalize relations with the Soviet
Union (page 6).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Ngo Dinh Diem will not form government without French
pledge to defend Tonkin (page 7).
7. Impending clash between French and Cambodian policies on
American aid (page 7).
8. Comment on Chou En-lai's visit to Rangoon (page 8).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Turks advise Libya against threatening to demand evacuation
of US base (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French premier says he may request conscripts for Indochina
(page 9).
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GENERAL
1. COCOM controls on ship sales may break down:
The American proposal in COCOM for
temporarily maintaining the current
quota controls on sales of ships to the
Orbit has in effect been rejected, accord-
e. Furthermore, the American-
British proposal for revised controls, featuring a maximum combined
quota of 150,000 gross tons per year for all COCOM participants, was
blocked by the Danes on 23 June.
Within the past week COCOM has been
apprised of 33 recent or contemplated ship deliveries to the Orbit
from five participating countries, involving about 100,000 gross tons.
The German delegate emphasized to his American colleagues privately
on 28 June that Bonn considers that COCOM shipping controls have
broken down; he doubts that his government can much longer resist
pressure from shipbuilders to fill Orbit orders.
Comment: The failure of the COCOM
working level to reach agreement on quota controls for any impor-
tant items--such as ships--adds to the almost impossible task facing
the Consultative Group at its forthcoming meeting which may be post-
poned from 8 to 21 July. This meeting had been expected to wind up
the review of the whole controls program.
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR announces opening of atomic power station:
The USSR Council of Ministers has
announced the opening on 27 June of an
atomic electric power station. The plant
has a 5,000-kilowatt capacity, is powered by "the nuclear fission of
the uranium atom," and is producing current for neighboring industry
and agriculture. Development work is in progress for similar plants
with from 50,000 to 100,000 kilowatts capacity.
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Comment: The low power of this unit
indicates that a developmeirai or pilot installation is being de-
scribed. This Soviet claim does not necessarily mean thatproblems
Involved in the economic production of large amounts of power from
nuclear sources have been solved. President A. N. Nesmeyanov of
the Soviet Academy of Sciences recently stated that large-scale genera-
tion of power from atomic energy in the USSR was a long way off. The
timing of the official announcement may therefore reflect Soviet re-
action to what the USSR considers an American intention to move ahead
with the "Atomic Pool" without Soviet co-operation.
3. TU-4's active at eight Soviet Arctic bases:
since
early April 1954 TU-4 medium bomber type
aircraft have utilized eight bases and possi-
bly six others located between the Bering
Stimit and Murmansk in the Soviet Arctic (see map, p. 5). At least
six aircraft have been identified in this activity.
Comment: The recent flights suggest that
the program of airfield construction and improvement under way since
1949 has progressed to the point that potential Soviet strategic bomber
bases in the Arctic are now capable of maintaining limited TU-4
operations on a year-round basis.
The TU-4 flights in the Arctic this spring
are believed to have been conducted in support of meteorological
research. Since June, these flights may also have been concerned
with ice reconnaissance along the Northern Sea Route,
4. USSR believed using airborne intercept radar:
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� SOVIET NORTH
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JUNE 1954
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Comment: Soviet postwar advances in
the field of electronics indicate that airborne intercept radar could
have been available since about 1951.
The Soviet Union's sensitivity to aircraft
operating near its borders may have induced it to deploy all-weather
fighters which had previously been withheld for security reasons.
However, such aircraft have not been identified in operational Soviet
units.
FAR EAST
5. Japan seen moving to normalize relations with the Soviet Union:
jJapanese economic circles
claim Japan's relations with the Soviet
Union are entering a new phase in which
Tokyo is moving to normalize relations.
He notes that the continuing efforts of several Japanese ministries
for a rapprochement are justified above all by economic reasons and
particularly by the large orders for ships and ship repairs the USSR
reportedly will offer.
the Japanese think
American policy toward Asia is too narrow in its emphasis on re-
armament and fails to consider psychological factors.
the Japanese intend to "try their luck" within the limits Washington
has recognized as valid for Western European dealings with the USSR.
Comment: The Japanese government is
supporting private negotiations with the USSR for a three-year trade
arrangement valued at $26,000,000 each way. Japan is to export eight
cargo ships, eight fishing vessels, and eight tugboats, and provide
ship repairs and reconstruction. The Soviet Union will provide in
return lumber, petroleum, coal, manganese, chrome, raw cotton
and platinum.
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The continuing serious decline in Japan's
economy Ivita strengthened J'apanese sentiment for trade with the
Communist Orbit--now only about one percent of the Japanese total--
as a panacea for present economic ills.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Ngo Dinh Diem will not form government without French pledge to
defend Tonkin:
Ngo Dinh Diem stated emphatically to the
American charg�n Saigon on 29 June that
he would not form a government unless
assured that the French would defend
zie expiaineane had no intention of taking office merely to
sign a capitulatory peace.
Diem said his urgent request to General
Salan not to evacuate southern Tonkin had been turned down on the
ground that Salan had received explicit instructions from Paris to
withdraw from this area. Diem asked that American diplomatic
pressure be brought to bear on the French to reverse this policy,
but did not appear to expect armed American intervention.
Comment: It will be difficult if not
impossible to form an authentic Vietnamese nationalist government
which will agree to the abandonment of Tonkin. The formation of a
�CochinchinaRepublic," now advocated by certain French officials,
might attract a handful of Vietnamese opportunists, but would be
even less popular than a provisional partitioning of the country which
left open the hope of eventual unification.
7. Impending clash between French and Cambodian policies on
meric n i
The American charg�n Phnom Penh
reports that the Cambodian government
Is making plans in the expectation of
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direct American military aid and training, whereas the French have
no intention of permitting such a program.
The charg�bserves that if the Cambo-
dians are not soon given a proper understanding of the limitations
to American involvement in their affairs, their present good feel-
ing toward the United States could be quickly reversed.
Comment: The apparent French decision
not to defend Tonkin will make the Cambodians all the more eager to
obtain direct military aid from. the United States.
8. Comment on Chou En-lait visit to Rangoon:
Burma's interest.
The joint statement issued on 29 June by
Chou En-la! and Burmese prime minister
U Nu paralleled the Chou-Nehru declara-
t ion only in pledging nonaggression and
noninterference in each other's affairs.
The lack of any reference to the desira-
bility of "unified" states in Indochina
suggests that Chou was unable to persuade
Viet Minh control over all Vietnam would be in
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Turks advise Libya against threatening to demand evacuation of
US base:
The Turkish minister to Libya, who ac-
companied Libyan prime minister Ben
Hali.m on his recent visit to Ankara, has
told the American counselor in Benghazi
that the Turks have advised Libya to settle for a "reasonable offer"
for use of the American base�presumably more than the offered
$2,000,000 annual payment--and rely on American good will for
future economic aid.
The counselor understands that the Turks
tried to persuade Libyan prime minister Ben Halim not to threaten
the United States by demanding immediate evacuation and challepgin_g
the present interim base agreement if Libya's exorbitant requests for
economic aid are not met.
Comment: Earlier statements by Ben
Halim and the Libyan minister of defense suggested that Libya
would threaten to abrogate the interim base agreement, initialed
in December 1951 just prior to Libyan independence, in a final ef-
fort to obtain annual compensation of as much as $7,000,000 for an
American base agreement.
The Turkish foreign minister has told
Ambassador Warren that he believes a "slight increase" in the cur-
rent offer of $2,000,000 annually might satisfy the Libyans. This
attitude on the part of the Turks, whose advice is much respected in
Benghazi, may encourage the Libyans in their belief that the present
offer is inadequate.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. French premier says he may request conscripts for Indochina:
Premier Mendes-France told Ambassador
Dillon in Paris on 29 June that he was in-
clined to favor asking the National Assembly
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for permission to use conscripts in Indochina. He added that the
government would have to decide on this issue before the end of
the week.
The premier said that he did not know
whether he could pick up enough votes on the right to counter
probable Socialist opposition to this policy. He told Dillon that
there is a difference of opinion on the subject among the military
and that Marshal Juin has taken a firm position against it.
Comment Aware that the National
Assembly would most likely not grant authority to use conscripts
in Indochina, Mendes-France is probably only making a gesture to
satisfy both American opinion and those Gaullists who favor a strong
Indochina policy. He is anxious to elicit greater American support
for his government, including a specific statement limiting Commu-
nist expansion.
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