CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/09
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
03001379
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
10
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
July 9, 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15706706].pdf | 383.67 KB |
Body:
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Low No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. -13
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
11 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH HR 70-2
DATE _Ve2Q__REVIEWE
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO EGRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Chinese Communists may have acquired two Soviet submarines
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
Two Soviet tankers return to Istanbul after starting for Far
East (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Central China floods damage railroad and airfields (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. American embassy comments on new Vietnamese cabinet (page 5).
5. General Ely says he would resign if ordered to evacuate Hanoi
(page 5).
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
6. New Zealand external affairs minister's statement on Communist
China disavowed (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Egyptian foreign minister to be replaced by Major Sa.lam (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes- France complains of foreign pressure for EDC ratifica-
tion (page 8).
9. British officials advocate German membership in NATO (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Attack on Costa Rica reported imminent (page 9).
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Nor,
GENERAL
. Chinese Communists may have acquired two Soviet submarines:
two
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flying the Chinese Communist naval ensign
on 28-30 June at Tsingtao, a Chinese naval
base on the Shantung Peninsula.
Comment: It is possible that these sub-
marines were actually of the�goviet "SHCH" medium-range class.
The Chinese Communists were previously
believed to have only one small coastal-type Soviet submarine, which
has probably been used at Tsingtao as a training vessel.
Unless Chinese crews have been trained in
the Soviet Union, it is not considered likely that the Chinese Commu-
nists will be able to operate these larger submarines effectively for
several months.
The transfer of either type of Soviet sub-
marine to the Chinese Communist navy would greatly increase its
capabilities for operations against the Nationalist navy, which is con-
sidered poorly trained in antisubmarine warfare and vulnerable to
submerged attack.
SOVIET UNION
2. Two Soviet tankers return to Istanbul after starting for Far East:
Two Soviet tankers, each carrying 9,000
tons of kerosene from Constanta, passed
Istanbul on 30 June and 2 July en route to
Vladivostok, according to the American
naval attach�t Ankara. On 6 July both
ships had returned to Istanbul.
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T OP SECRET
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Comment: It seems likely that the actual
destination was China rather�friTil Vladivostok. The return of these
vessels suggests that the Soviet government has not yet decided what
action to take to protect its ships in waters near Formosa.
Except for a Soviet refrigerator vessel
accompanied by 14 trawlers which was headed for the Luzon Strait on
6 July en route to Vladivostok, the USSR continues to keep its other
ships far outside Formosan waters.
FAR EAST
3.
Central China floods damage railroad and airfields:
The Yangtze River at Anking between
Hankow and Nanking was approaching the
1949 flood level which broke the dikes,
The Anking airfield was said to be under one to two feet of water.
Meanwhile, a civil air transport
began airlifting flood-stranded passengers from Changsha, on the main
Hankow-Canton railroad, to Canton. The railroad roadbed was said to
be washed out in the vicinity of Chuchou.
Comment: The 1949 flooding of the Yangtze
River and lakes in central China was one of the most severe recorded.
It caused widespread damage to crops in the area known as the Rice Bowl
of China, and was in part responsible for the famine of early 1950.
Chuchou is a key junction of the railroads
from Hankow and Shanghai, and all traffic for Canton and the Indochina
border area passes through that city.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. American embassy comments on new Vietnamese cabinet:
The Ngo Dinh Diem cabinet, which was
sworn in on 7 July, is described by the
American embassy in Saigon as ultra-
nationalist, cool toward both the French
and Bao Dai, and vaguely neutralist. None of the parties and few of
the individuals in previous governments are represented in the new
Much greater weight is given to representa-
tion from north and central Vietnam than in previous governments and
at least six members in the past have turned down cabinet offers. Diem,
as minister of the interior and of national defense, retains considerably
greater power in his own hands than did his predecessor, Buu Loc.
The embassy doubts that the announcement
of the new cabinet appointments will add appreciably to the government's
popular support.
Comment: The decision of several former
fence-sitters to join the government at this late date shows the continuing
strong appeal offered by a government that is apparently willing to cut
loose from both the French and Bao
Possibly indicative of the new government's
independent attitude, is a report of 6 July from Saigon that Diem has
decided to order the Vietnamese delegation to walk out of the Geneva
talks.
5. General Ely says he would resign if ordered to evacuate Hanoi:
Generaly Ely told Ambassador Heath on
6 July that while it would be sound militarily
to evacuate Hanoi and fall back on Haiphong,
such a move would have catastrophic political
repercussions. He said that as a soldier he perhaps ought to make the
move, but as commissioner general he intended to fight for Hanoi even
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though he might be beaten. If his government gave up Hanoi in a deal
with the Viet Minh, Ely said he, would of course withdraw his troops in
obedience to orders, but would thereupon offer his resignation.
General Ely said he had one additional
withdrawal to make in Tonkin--from a sector west of Hanoi--for
which he had not yet set a date.
Comment: Ely's ostensibly combative
posture is manifestly inconsrgent with the French decision, recently
revealed by France's representative at Geneva, to yield Hanoi to the
Viet Minh.
A report from Hanoi on 7 July that the
French had begun to evacuate Son Tay Province, northwest of Hanoi,
indicates that Ely's "one additional withdrawal" has already begun.
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
6. New Zealand external affairs minister's statement on Communist China
disavowed:
New Zealand's permanent secretary for
external affairs,. A. a McIntosh, has
informed Ambassador Scotten that External
Affairs Minister Webb's statement favoring
the admission of Communist China into the UN was not cleared with the
prime minister or the cabinet and does not reflect the government's
policy. He said Webb had gone "entirely too far" and that it was "incon-
ceivable" New Zealand would vote against the United States on such a
question.
McIntosh explained that although New
Zealand believed the time may come when its present policy toward
Peiping would have to be reassessed, it was not prepared to gamble on
the prospect of dividing the Communists at the risk of undermining
Western unity. He was at a loss to know what the government would do
to clear up "this muddle" since it is unlikely Webb will make a public
retraction.
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Comment Webb's statement in a parlia-
mentary foreign affairs debate advocating recognition of Communist
China and its admission to the UN was supported by both sides of the
house.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Egyptian foreign minister to be replaced by Major Salam
The Revolutionary Command Council has
decided to replace Foreign Minister Fawzi
with Major Salah Salam, a member of the
council and currently minister of national
guidance and Sudanese affairs,
Fawzi is "fed up"
with being by-passed by the council. Salam's recent official visits to
Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are said to have been the final blow and Fawzi
is now ready to resign. He awaits only the council's decision on the
timing.
Comment Fawzi's replacement on the eve
of the resumption of Anglo-Egyptian talks by the young and emotional
Salam would remove an experienced diplomat from the difficult Suez
negotiations.
The appointment of Salam as foreign minis-
ter would place all key cabinet posts in the hands of the Revolutionary
Command Council, and could be expected to further dissension in the
Forel n Ministry I
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes-France complains of foreign pressure for EDC ratification
Premier Mendes- France told Ambassador
Dillon on 6 July he is convinced France will
not ratify the EDC treaty in its present form.
He said that even if the EDC treaty were ap-
proved by a narrow majority in the National
Assembly, it would be "decisively defeated"
In the Council of the Republic.
The premier said he was growing discouraged
at prospects of even reaching a satisfactory compromise on EDC. He
complained that pressure for ratification being brought by Belgian foreign
minister Spaak and West German chancellor Adenauer has had the effect
of stiffening opposition to the treaty in France.
Both the French minister in London and a
close friend of Mendes-France have told American officials in London
the premier is complaining about being "put on the spot" by concerted
pressure from foreign governments.
Comment Mendes- France was previously
reported to have assured pro-EDC leaders that if he failed to achieve a
compromise EDC solution, he would introduce the EDC treaty into the
assembly without amendments. This is the first time he has indicated
to American officials his view that EDC will not be ratified if no compro-
mise can be found. Pro-EDC deputies still maintain, however, that they
have a majority in the assembly.
9. British officials advocate German membership in NATO
High British Foreign Office officials hold
that German membership in NATO is the
only alternative to EDC. If the French do
not ratify EDC by mid-August, the British
propose moving ahead with plans to restore German sovereignty and
concurrently to secure a West German defense contribution.
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In order to allay fears of unrestricted
German rearmament, the Foreign Office suggests that NATO-wide
and German agreement be sought on limiting the size of German forces
and the types of arms the Germans could use or manufacture. Other
provisions from the present EDC treaty would also be adopted to pro-
vide for integration and strong control by NATO of all national contin-
gents.
The British are aware that France could
veto German entrance into NATO, but believe Paris would "have trouble"
resisting pressure from at least 12 other NATO members.
Comment: This proposal would call for
modifications in the present NATO structure and would entail even more
difficulties than the earlier British suggestion that German sovereignty
be restored with or without French consent. It may therefore represent
primarily a new British attempt to bring pressure to bear on France to
approve the EDC treaty as the most feasible way of rearming Germany.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Attack on Costa Rica reported imminent:
Comment: Costa Rican officials are showing
extreme nervousness over the growing number of reports of an immi-
nent attack sponsored by Venezuela and Nicaragua.
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The Costa Ricans participating in such a
move would be adherents of ex-dictator Calderon Guardia, who con-
trolled the Communist-supported Picado government overthrown by
Figueres in 1948. Despite Calderon's record of co-operation with
Communists, rightist regimes in the Caribbean area have long backed
him because of their hatred for Figueres. Figueres, who relinquished
control of the government in 1949, regained the presidency in a regular
election last July and has since given encouragement and probably mate-
rial assistance to exiled opponents of these rightist regimes.
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