CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03001383
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 16, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO _4.5-
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:...Vaap REVIEWER
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Communists reported willing to settle for 16th parallel in Vietnam
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. South Korean prime minister discounts unilateral action threats
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Sharp rise noted in Vietnatnese army desertions (page 4).
WESTE:RN EUROPE
4. Belgium plans cut in NATO-committed forces (page .
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GENERAL
. Communists reported willing to settle for 16th parallel in Vietnam:
Viet Minh delegate Dong at Geneva told
Premier Mendes- France on 13 July he
w4s prepared to compromise on the
16th parallel as the partition line for
ember of the French delegation.
This conversation followed a talk between
Mendes- France and Chou En-lai in which Chou said both sides must
make concessions, with the Viet Minh making the larger.
Mendes- France is said to have told both
Chou and Dong that France would insist on the Dong Hot line for
partition of Vietnam.
Comment: It seems likely that the
Communist position on Vietnam. will be affected by the French-
Laotian position on Laos.
� The Communists have previously pressed
for partition of Vietnam at about the 14th parallel, while the French
have insisted on the Dong Hot line, midway between the 17th and 18th
parallels. The Communists have also sought control of some part
of Laos, and a Laotian delegate recently reported the French had
suggested that Laos accept the Viet Minh proposal for "Pathet Lao
regroupment areas" within Laos.
The Communists may propose that the
Dong Hot line for Vietnam be extended west through Laos, following
the reported French defense line for those states. Partition along
this line would give the Communists the northern half of Indochina.
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FAR EAST
2. South Korean prime minister discounts unilateral action threats:
South Korean prime minister Pyun told
Ambassador Briggs on 13 July that the
United States sometimes takes "too
seriously" Korean threats of unilateral
ac ion w en tements are "meant to impress the Communist
enemy, not Korea's American friends."
Pyun asserted that the United States,
by rationing supplies and ammunition for the South Koreans and by
contemplating the withdrawal of American forces, was "unwittingly
creating a power vacuum in Korea" that was likely to encourage the
Communists to repeat their 1950 aggression.
Comment Pyun is probably trying to
induce the United States to relax its control over military supplies
in South Korea and to present in a more favorable light Seoul's
request for a major build-up of balanced armed forces by dis-
sociating it from the unilateral action issue.
South Korea's immediate objective is
probably to acquire the logistical capability for unilateral military
action rather than actually to undertake it, in order to strengthen
its bargaining position with the United States.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Sharp rise noted in Vietnamese army desertions
desertions of
Vietnamese army regulars in the delta,
which were less than 100 in the last
week of June, rose to 900 during the
tIrst weeK in July. iviobt of the increase occurred in the southern
zone of the delta, prior to and during French evacuation of that
area. Since the evacuation,, desertions in other zones have risen
sharply as a result of the withdrawal.
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Comment: Bitterness over the abandonment
of the southern delta was heightened by the disregard apparently shown
some Vietnamese units during the evacuation and the fear of further
precipitate French withdrawals, Viet Minh propaganda is effectively
exploiting the situation.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Belgium plans cut in NATO-committed,forces:
According to the Belgian army chief of
staff, the defense minister has indicated
that for budgetary and manpower reasons
the government will probably reduce 1955
goals by dropping an, interceptor air wing and by reducing the
infantry divisions available on M-day from three to two.
Comment: Only two months ago the
defense minister assured parliaint that Belgium's military
commitments would be fully respected. This planned reduction of
NATO-committed forces has surprised SHAPE, which had been
led to understand that the anticipated decrease in conscripts due
to recent reduction of the service term from 21 to 18 months would
not affect NATO units until 1956.
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