CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/29

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03002530
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 29, 1954

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29 May 1954
Copy No. SO
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: (7 ICY
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: g/ijefia REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. France hedges on Thai appeal to UN (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR to send three warships to visit Albania (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Comment on new Chinese Nationalist cabinet appointments (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French plan build-up of Tonkin delta mobile strength (page 5).
5. Indonesian prime minister says US efforts in Southeast Asia could
"lead to war" (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Greeks and Yugoslays reject Italian opposition to Balkan military
alliance (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Saar agreement leak may force Adenauer to meet French again
(page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Comment on Guatemalan offer of nonaggression pact with Honduras
(page 7).
9. Brazil's loss of ILO seat may affect attitude toward US (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. France hedges on That appeal to UN:
Thailand's chief UN delegate told Ambassador
Lodge on 27 May that French delegate Hoppenot
has shown "great reserve" about the proposed
Thai appeal to the Security Council to send a
peace observation commission to Indochina.
Thailand had been led to believe that France would give "unequivocal
support" to the appeal.
Lodge reports that in a conversation earlier
that day, Hoppenot was "reticent, apparently because he lacked instruc-
tions."
Comment: The French ambassador in Bern
stated on 17 May that his government "agreed to the principle of a Thai
appeal," but had reservations as to the timing. A French Foreign Minis-
try spokesman told Ambassador Dillon on 27 May that both he and the
French delegation at Geneva felt that an appeal to the UN at this time
would be premature because of the "delicate state" of negotiations on
Indochina.
France's reluctance to support a Thai appeal
may derive from its fear that the whole French colonial policy would be
debated in the UN, which would be used as a world forum by both the
Communists and the Arab bloc.
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR to send three warships to visit Albania:
The Soviet Union has notified the Greek
government that it intends to send two new
destroyers and a new 12,500-ton warship
to Albania for a visit in the near future,
according to Ambassador Cannon. He comments that the date for the
visit suggests that the Soviet ships and three Yugoslav vessels sched-
uled to carry President Tito to Greece may pass each other.
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Comment: This apparently will be the
first time since before \Voila-War II that Soviet naval forces enter the
Mediterranean.
The visit of the Soviet ships to Albania at
this time probably reflects Soviet concern about military planning among
the states of the Balkan pact. Tito visited Turkey in early May and a
joint statement following the meetings stated that a military alliance was
contemplated.
Moscow probably suspects that the forthcoming
meetings in Athens between the Greek government and Tito may include
long-range planning with regard to Albania, and is seizing this opportunity
to demonstrate its support of Albania.
FAR EAST
3. Comment on new Chinese Nationalist cabinet appointments:
The new Chinese Nationalist cabinet, which is
expected to take office on 1 June after approval
by Chiang Kai-shek, appears to be dominated
by ministers who have been relatively inde-
pendent of Chiang Ching-kuo and his authoritarian faction. With the ex-
ception of the minister of defense, all nine of the new major cabinet
members are Kuomintang members, but only three have in the past been
Identified with young Chiang.
All but one of the new cabinet ministers served
In lesser capacities in the previous government, and they are unlikely to
Introduce startling changes in Nationalist policy. Their appointment,
together with that of elder statesman Chang Chun to the influential post
of secretary general in the president's office, suggests at least a tempo-
rary halt to the increase in power of Chiang Ching-kuo.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. French plan build-up of Tonkin delta mobile strength:
The main decision of the recent high-level
French military conferences in Saigon was to
increase mobile strength in the Tonkin delta
from the present seven mobile groups to ten
and possibly twelve, the American army
attaclf�eports. The additional troops will be drawn mostly from Laos.
This enlarged mobile force will then be concentrated in the north of the
delta, although initially it will assist Vietnamese forces in the southern
delta.
When planned French reinforcement of the
delta is completed, infantry strength will be 117 battalions, according to
the army attach�
Comment: This supports an earlier report
that the Ely mission and the Indochina commanders had agreed to develop
mobile rather than defensive tactics and put up a determined fight in the
Tonkin delta region. French intelligence and the air force were criti-
cized by Ely, Salan, and Navarre for deficiencies in the Dien Bien Phu
battle.
The French have in the past periodically
announced the adoption of an aggressive strategy and then failed to
utilize their striking force effectively.
Indonesian prime minister says US efforts in Southeast Asia could "lead
to war":
Prime Minister Ali told Ambassador Cumming
In Djakarta on 26 May that American efforts
to muster strength to deter China's expansion
"could only lead to war," but Peiping, if ad-
mitted to the United Nations, could be dealt with without danger of war.
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Ali tried to draw a parallel between the
Indochina situation and Indonesia's experience with the Dutch. In reply
to Cumming's reference to Peiping supplying the Viet Minh, Ali re-
minded the ambassador that American weapons had been found in the
hands of the Dutch during Indonesia's fight for independence.
Cumming comments that in his "fuzzy" expo-
sition, Ali "went through the =dons" of presenting the government line,
but appeared devoid Of real conviction.
Comment: Ali, former Indonesian ambassador
to Washington, may well have some personal doubts about the views he ex-
pressed.
Ctimming reported earlier that some Indone-
sian leaders have misgivings about Ho ChiMinli!s' independence of Peiping,
but warned that they are not prepared to acknowledge their concern pub-
licly,.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Greeks and Yugoslays reject Italian opposition to Balkan military
alliance:
Yugoslav foreign secretary Popovic and
Greek premier Papagos have told American
and British officials that Italy must not be
permitted to stand in the way of the develop-
ment of the Balkan pact. This was in reply
to separate American and British demarches
In anticipation of Tito's June visit to Athens.
The two Western powers requested that any
communique regarding the conversion of the
Balkan pact into a military alliance be worded
so as not to incite Italian public opinion and
thus jeopardize a Trieste settlement.
Popovic informed American ambassador Riddle-
berger that there was no possibility of proclaiming a Balkan military alli-
ance during Tito's visit to Athens owing to the lack of Turkish represen-
tation.
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The British ambassador in Belgrade believes
that the Greeks and Yugoslays have agreed to part of the communique
to be issued on Tito's visit. He is uncertain, however, whether it will
state that the alliance will be signed when the three Balkan foreign
ministers meet in late lune.
WESTE.RN EUROPE
7. Saar agreement leak may force Adenauer to meet French again:
Ambassador Dillon believes that a "final"
meeting on the Saar may now be necessary
between West German chancellor Adenauer
and French premier Laniel or another
-ranking cabinet official to make "minor face-saving changes" in the
Saar agreement reached in Strasbourg on 20 May. In view of the
official French denials that a final agreement was reached, the
leak of the full text in Le Monde on 26 May will make it iconsiderably
more difficult for the French cabinet to accept the Strasbourg accord
without changes.
Dillon attributes the leak to anti-EDC
elements in the Foreign Ministry.
Comment: On 22 May, French deputy
foreign minister Schumann, anticipating that premature announcement
of a finall agreement would hurt the government's chances of obtaining
EDC ratification, proposed several minor phrase changes. Adenauer
would probably not refuse minor changes to ensure French cabinet
approval.
LATIN AMERICA
8. Comment on Guatemalan offer of nonaggression pact with Honduras:
Guatemala's offer on 27 May to conclude a
nonaggression treaty with Honduras
reinforces previous indications that the
Arbenz government genuinely fears a
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meeting of the Organization of American States on the Guatemalan
problem and is attempting to convince other Latin American nations
that such a meeting is unnecessary.
Although Central American sentiment gen-
erally favors an OAS meeting, doubt as to the grounds for such a
meeting has already been expressed by several South American govern-
ments. This doubt will probably be increased if, as seems possible,
Honduras reacts favorably to the Guatemalan overture.
Overt Guatemalan aggression against
Honduras appears unlikely. A greater danger--the clandestine pro-
vision of weapons by Guatemalan Communists to disaffected elements
In neighboring countries--would remain even should a nonaggression
pact be signed with Honduras.
Guatemala's offer may be motivated in part
by fear of attack from Honduran territory.
9. Brazil's loss of ILO seat may affect attitude toward US:
Assignment of permanent seats on the
governing body of the International Labor
Organization to the USSR, West Germany,
and Japan to the exclusion of Brazil appears
to have majority support in the ILO, accord-
ing to the American delegation at the current
ILO conference in Geneva.
The American embassy in Rio de Janeiro
reported on 27 May that the Brazilian
Foreign Ministry favored a British
alternative proposal. This proposal, which
the British have now dropped, would have
allowed Brazil to keep its permanent seat and would have granted the
two new permanent seats to the USSR and West Germany.
Comment: Brazil, the only Latin American
country with a permanent seat in the ILO, attaches considerable importance
to the prestige connected with it. Loss of this seat, especially if Brazil
attributes it to the fact that the United States failed to support the British
suggestion, may adversely affect Brazilian co-operation with the United
States on the Guatemalan question.
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