CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03002532
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 2, 1954

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DOCUMENT NO. �7
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NEKT REviEw DATE. 20/0
0/ AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 411/c90 _. _ REVIEWER: � /
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Office of Current Intelligence
2 June 1954
Copy No.
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Rhee seeks changes in "unfair" defense treaty with US (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Cogny expects early Viet Minh assault on delta (page 3).
Key Tonkinese leaders in despairing mood"(page
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Shah considering replacement of Zahedi (page 5).
5. Pro-Western Iraqi politicians inactive while Communists elec-
tioneer vigorously (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Inter-Satellite air defense, exercise reveals improved co-ordina-
tion (page 6).
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FAR EAST
1.
Rhee seeks changes in "unfair" defense treaty with US:
In a letter to Ambassador Dean dated 29 May,
President Rhee asked that Dean "or someone
else representing the United States govern-
ment give us a signed statement to the effect
that the State Department will push for an amended version of the US-
South Korean Mutual Defense Treaty at the next session of Congress."
He said that South Korea desires "to have such assurance on file."
Rhee asserted that the treaty was unfair to
Korea since it can be terminated at any time by either nation, whereas
the United States cannot terminate its treaty with Japan, except by
mutual agreement.
Comment: Rhee is attempting to secure, in
effect, a veto over the Unit-UMW' power to terminate its mutual
defense pact commitments to South Korea. He is incorrect, however,
in ascribing this feature to the US-Japan treaty.
Ambassador Briggs reports that Rhee's
attitude toward the United States recently has hardened perceptibly.
He thinks that Rhee is convinced the United States now cannot get along
without him.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
12. Cogny expects early Viet Minh assault on delta:
General Cogny in Hanoi told American
charg�cClintock last week end that he
believes a major Viet Minh assault on the
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Tonkin delta around the middle of June is
almost certain. He said he was regroup-
ing his forces to build up a much larger
mobile force, but he feared that he would
be unable to stop a concentrated Wet Minh
effort to cut Hanoi-Haiphong communica-
tions. In such a case, Cogny said, he did
not "intend to have another Dien Bien Phu"
at Hanoi and would withdraw to a bridge-
head at Haiphong.
Meanwhile, from other sources McClintock
heard that not only is Hanoi low on rice stocks but it is also dependent
on daily coal supplies from Haiphong for maintenance of its electric
light and water purification systems. If the flow of coal is interrupted
for "a length of time," Hanoi will fall.
The American military attach�rom Saigon,
who accompanied the charg�o Hanoi, reports the general opinion of
military and civilian leaders there that under a heavy Viet Minh attack
the delta, except for the Haiphong area, would be lost within 30 days.
Comment: Viet Minh strategy, instead of
calling for a major assaultcin the delta, may provide for an accelera-
tion of pressure on the Hanoi-Haiphong line by the piecemeal commit-
ment of its battle corps. This would gradually bring movement of
traffic to an end without risking attack by French planes and a head-on
collision with heavier armed French forces.
prTsmgcobidEththtck from outside
or the permanent cutting of the lines to Haiphong would probably make
Hanoi untenable for the French.
Key Tonkinese leaders in despairing mood:
The American charg�eports that statements
made to him in Hanoi two days ago by Gover-
nor Tri and the Vietnamese bishop of Buichu
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reflect a "mounting sense of panic and a feeling that the last act is
about to open." Both Vietnamese leaders emphasized increasing
defeatism among the populace.
The bishop, who exercises temporal as
well as spiritual power over much of the population of the southern
part of the Tonkin delta, told of Viet Minh headway in his solidly
Catholic region, He attributed this as much to "our side's wrong
policies" asto Viet Minh force of arms.
Comment: Previous reports have been
received that numerous French and Vietnamese businessmen and offi-
cials in Hanoi are hedging against the future by transferring funds to
France and making other preparations to leave Indochina.
The discouragement of Tri and the bishop
demonstrates that even among the most stalwart and influential anti-
Communist Tonkinese there is a tendency to lose hope.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Shah considering replacement of Zahedi:
The shah of Iran told Ambassador Henderson
on 27 May that he was considering the re-
placement of Prime Minister Zahedi and
asked whether such a move would facilitate
an oil settlement. The shah remarked that the attitude of the American
and British press led him to believe that Washington and London might
prefer to deal with a prime minister more popular in his own country
and in the Majlis.
Henderson told the shah he knew of no
Iranian who had the prestige to negotiate an oil settlement more effec-
tively than Zahedi. He also pointed out that any settlement would have
to be sponsored by the shah, who should therefore direct the prime
minister rather than replace him.
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Comment; The shah's desire to dominate
his prime ministers has often led Eim to intrigue for a strong minis-
ter's removal. At present, however, he claims that his relations with
Zahedi are better than with any possible successor.
Several senators are actively seeking the
premiership. None has impressed Henderson as being equal to Zahedi
in ability or honesty.
5. Pro-Western Iraqi politicians inactive while Communists electioneer
vigorous
The vigorous electoral campaign of Iraq's
Communist-directed National Front is being
met by startling apathy on the part of the
conservative, pro-Western parties, according
to American officials in Baghdad. Unlike the
Front, these parties are not publishing any
newspapers or pamphlets and show little un-
derstanding of the use of propaganda techniques.
The only reaction on the part of the government
to the Front's activities thus far was the crackdown on Front demonstra-
tions by the minister of interior on 26 and 27 May.
Comment: While old-line politicians will
probably dominate the 9 June election through their control of the elec-
tion machinery, this approach to the elections reveals lack of under-
standing of the internal Communist threat.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Inter-Satellite air defense exercise reveals improved co-ordination:
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The arrival of two Soviet fighter aircraft
from East Gerniany at the Czech base just prior to the exercise suggests
that Soviet pilots may have been sent to observe or to assist in direct-
ing the exercise.
Comment: This transfer of control between
fighter direction centers ra5cts a major advance in co-ordination
within the Orbit air defense system in Eastern Europe.
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